POLITICS – ANALYSIS Meme politics, tackling price hikes and Milei’s North Star 16-03-2024 06:31 President Milei understands that he needs to deliver slowing inflation and the beginning of an economic rebound if he is to have a chance at truly governing the country. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS The joy of being Javier Milei and the threat of ostracism 09-03-2024 06:43 Milei needs his plan to move from the whiteboard — and social media — to the realpolitik realm of Argentina’s traditional power structure, either from within or by trampling over it. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS A mix of amateurism and strategy 02-03-2024 05:19 The Milei-Caputo plan is trying to hammer down inflation through a painful recession, hoping that once the numbers begin to look encouraging, expectations will help spark a bonanza of investment and ultimately growth. It’s a risky strategy. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS ‘Synthetic’ in a world in flux: Milei faces a political defeat 10-02-2024 00:36 What will the near-future of the Milei administration look like after having effectively demolished bridges with the “moderate” opposition that sought to offer a helping hand? by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Living on the edge 03-02-2024 06:23 It feels as if the president is pushing the boundaries of negotiations beyond reasonable points. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS & ECONOMY The limits of Milei’s ‘synthetic power’ 27-01-2024 09:19 While his digital energy can be translated into real world power, Javier Milei and his team must be careful not to confuse their popularity with actual muscle. by Agustino Fontevecchia
MILEI @ DAVOS To communicate is to meme: the politician as a social media influencer 20-01-2024 08:52 In a digital ecosystem characterised by infinite reach, the conditions of success are defined in relation to the capacity to go viral. And probably the most effective way for that to happen is to become a meme that is retweeted by Elon Musk. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS Instant democracy and turbo-politics in the age of Milei 13-01-2024 06:58 No-one can predict how long Javier Milei’s honeymoon period will last, but it does appear to be softening a bit. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS The ‘right plan,’ the ‘only plan,’ or ‘no plan’? 06-01-2024 07:33 Either Milei is a daredevil convinced he’ll make it out alive, he has no choice and is winging it, or he’s got a couple of cards up his sleeve that we’re not seeing. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Milei knows the clock is ticking 31-12-2023 17:53 While the political class and the media have spent days debating the DNU emergency decree and the so-called “omnibus” law which seeks to fully deregulate the economy, whether it is constitutional or not, and whether it conforms with the processes and best practices of democracy, the real issue lies elsewhere – how long will society be able to tolerate such an aggressive correction? by Agustino Fontevecchia
Emergency decree controversy Milei’s bluff 23-12-2023 06:16 Praised for his moderation and pragmatism over the last several weeks, the self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist has now put in place a series of controversial measures which have divided public opinion. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS & ECONOMY Milei the pragmatist and Toto’s ‘caputazo’ 16-12-2023 06:06 The ‘caputazo’ replaced pure austerity with a mix of higher taxes together with spending cuts and the “dilution” of part of the deficit through high inflation. The next few months will see runaway inflation run even farther away and put intense pressure on the population, as wages and salaries fall even farther behind. by Agustino Fontevecchia
NEW ERA FOR ARGENTINA Milei and a libertarian’s wet dream 09-12-2023 05:45 Is Milei’s ambitious reform package possible in today’s Argentina? Not only does his La Libertad Avanza coalition lack congressional muscle, but both of its negotiating partners are deeply fragmented, muddying the legislative front. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS Milei enjoys peak honeymoon phase 02-12-2023 14:48 While serious doubts remain, Argentina’s president-elect is acting carefully and strategically in the conformation of his cabinet and government, seemingly betting on experience over ideology. Once the glow begins to dim and his “chainsaw” austerity plan is in full force, what Milei will face the music? by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Living in Milei’s world 25-11-2023 14:22 These initial steps are positive in maintaining the situation from blowing up but they are insufficient in and of themselves. Not only would this cordiality and cooperation have to be maintained over time, Milei’s strategy would actually have to work. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Already in unchartered territory 18-11-2023 06:55 The emergence of Javier Milei and his libertarian coalition, La Libertad Avanza, has happened in tandem with a fatal erosion of the bonds holding Argentina’s hegemonic coalitions together. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTION 2023: RUN-OFF The death of moderation and the triumph of polarisation 11-11-2023 05:48 Milei seems to be recovering lost ground after a surprise defeat in the general election. If we are to believe any of the opinion polls that have come out recently (which we should read only with scepticism) the ultra-libertarian holds a thin lead over the economy minister. There seems to be a clear reversal of the post-election sentiment that Massa is already on the way to the Casa Rosada. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Election 2023 – Analysis ‘Petty advantage’ takes on ‘power’s pussycat’ 04-11-2023 05:50 If his first trick was managing to claw back enough votes to become the frontrunner ahead of the run-off, now Massa needs to retain and grow his electorate to win. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Massa v. Milei A final showdown in a new ecosystem 28-10-2023 04:50 Despite complaints from the Milei crew that fraud swiped some five percentage points from their electoral harvest, the reality is that they benefited from the “Peronist machine” in the primaries. For the general election, they were on their own. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Massa, Milei and the ‘revolution of the hawks’ 23-10-2023 17:55 In an electoral process which continues to surprise, the apparent invincibility of Javier Milei was placed in doubt by Sergio Massa, who worked his way into the run-off and again showed the value of party machines. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Milei, the end of the two-coalition era and the emergence of something new 21-10-2023 05:08 Society is on edge about what can and will happen starting Monday given serious economic fragilities, with some even speaking of a potential hyperinflationary episode. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Election 2023 Airing the dirty laundry of Argentina’s political caste 13-10-2023 11:27 As we get closer to the general election there could be a few more surprises of the smear campaign machine, so hold onto your hats. by Agustino Fontevecchia
The Insaurralde affair The caste in all its glory 07-10-2023 06:18 The 'Yachtgate' scandal connects directly with the ‘Chocolate’ case, which apparently ropes in the whole of the political underworld of the Province of Buenos Aires, including associates related to Massa, Unión por la Patria and Juntos por el Cambio. And what about Milei? by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTION 2023 Can Bullrich and Massa face the ‘Milei-tide’? 30-09-2023 05:08 The only candidate who could be moderately competitive in a run-off against Milei appears to be Bullrich, who is the farthest from taking that spot, if opinion polls are to be trusted. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTION 2023 Demystifying Javier Milei 23-09-2023 05:11 Milei is a mystical creature with an impenetrable halo above his head at the moment. His opponents appear weak and disoriented. Yet there is still ample room for surprises. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 What everyone is thinking and no-one is saying (about Javier Milei) 16-09-2023 05:14 What the members of the ‘círculo rojo’ are all thinking, but are not willing to say publicly, is that they believe a Milei administration would be marked by a level of institutional instability so great that it would quickly lead to a situation of social unrest. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Election 2023 Milei the destroyer and fear of the unexplainable 09-09-2023 05:09 The fear that Milei and his weird entourage of cosplayers, social media influencers, extreme-right “dictatorship deniers” and C-class corrupt political leeches generates has to do with a breakdown in the conditions of governability. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Election 2023 Milei, telepathic conversations with dogs and mental health 02-09-2023 06:17 Beyond allegedly having telepathic conversation with living and dead animals, God and historical economists, Milei has an extremely short fuse, quickly escalating into a level of rage that is uncommon in someone expected to lead in times of crisis. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTION 2023 Four theses about Javier Milei 26-08-2023 06:30 In the age of near total smartphone and Internet penetration, Javier Milei has proven that a viral phenomenon is more powerful than the traditional party structures that supposedly guarantee the vote throughout the nation. by Agustino Fontevecchia
PASO PRIMARIES 2023 – ANALYSIS Milei and reaping what you sowed 19-08-2023 08:05 There could be another 1.2 million voters heading to the ballots on October 22 from increased participation. Assuming Bullrich and Massa absorb all of their primary rivals’ voters, will they be able to capture enough of those ‘new’ voters? by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Three surprises 10-08-2023 23:30 The harrowing nature of the crime, the fact that it was caught on security cameras and broadcasted nationally almost in real time, and its proximity to the PASO primaries means it could have a lasting impact on the political field. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 Punctuated equilibrium and the PASO conundrum 06-08-2023 19:01 The PASO primaries, along with an end to the hegemony of the two leading political coalitions, has resulted in a breakdown of the status quo. Like punctuated equilibrium, it feels like major change is occurring rapidly and as we speak. by Agustino Fontevecchia
PASO primaries Is it Bullrich’s moment or just a polling error? 28-07-2023 20:17 The future is by definition unpredictable, and even close to some of the candidates there is great skepticism regarding what the opinion polls are indicating. by Agustino Fontevecchia
PASO primaries The end of the Kirchnerite-Macrista grip on power is nigh 28-07-2023 18:52 It will be interesting to see how the campaign evolves after the primaries, where internally antagonistic forces will have to team up in order to retain an ideologically different electorate. In the aftermath of the election it is probable that both of the major coalitions will fracture. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS The Argentine paradox becomes ever more explicit 15-07-2023 06:40 The paradox of an ‘Argentine miracle’ while on the verge of default and runaway inflation. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Only the quickest, the meanest and baddest will prevail 08-07-2023 06:13 Campaigning is truly underway for the PASO primaries. Things are getting serious and the political system is showing its true colours, with all sorts of treachery and mischief coming to the fore. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTION 2023 Backstabbing and cursing your way onto the ticket 01-07-2023 06:06 Peronism's lack of clear leaders and a debilitated Cristina resulted in a messy process that confirmed what had been on the table for months. The opposition’s presidential primary appears to have been less improvised, but it promises to leave collateral damage. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ANALYSIS Is it finally time to invest in Argentina, stuck between heaven and hell? 24-06-2023 01:27 From a financial standpoint, Argentina is back in the game. While for years it was considered a global financial pariah, and to a certain extent it still is, investors have sensed opportunity in a country with interesting prospects and massively undervalued assets. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 Argentina’s political hegemony crumbles in the face of primaries 17-06-2023 06:04 In a nation accustomed to charismatic leaders that create vertical organisations, the fragmentation of the political field is creating a whole lot of stress and volatility. And savagery has taken over. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Geopolitics Máximo in Beijing and the concept of ‘gestión’ 03-06-2023 06:59 While Massa’s hyperactive pragmatism allows him to concentrate on the immediate need for hard currency, Máximo’s supposed geopolitical vision attempts to push Argentina closer to China and therefore away from the United States in the grand chessboard of global politics. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 Anything can happen 27-05-2023 06:46 Uncertainty is the name of the game, as the supposed leading candidates fail to consolidate their leads and the newcomers outperform. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Politics in a labyrinth 20-05-2023 07:00 Cristina’s political renouncement was nothing more than the acknowledgement that winning a presidential election was statistically impossible and would cause more harm than good for her political cause. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Elections 2023 The Supreme Court’s political muscle 13-05-2023 08:35 The Supreme Court’s decision must be read purely in political terms, demonstrating that it won’t back down and has the intention to play hard ball in the political arena. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Hanging on in quiet desperation 29-04-2023 05:35 The chain of events that will be most consequential in delivering the next inhabitant of the Casa Rosada have already been set in motion. They are irreversible. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICAL AND FINANCIAL INSTABILITY $420: The ‘elegant’ dollar 22-04-2023 06:23 This is the level of tension and uncertainty with which the Casa Rosada, the Economy Ministry, and Vice-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s closest allies live, the day-to-day vicissitudes of a failing administration. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS: ELECTIONS 2023 A social flare-up, a triple draw and the rise of Milei 15-04-2023 10:01 Javier Milei very well could be the single most voted-for candidate in the national PASOs scheduled for August 13. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS & ECONOMY – ANALYSIS Griesa’s ghost and the return of the ‘vulture funds’ 08-04-2023 06:25 The YPF court ruling ultimately represents a failure to face and resolve the structural challenges of the beleaguered sovereign and its never-ending attempts to escape a chronic cycle of ineptitude. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Can they regain control? 01-04-2023 00:06 Once again, Argentina’s deep fragilities have surfaced as much-needed reform was replaced with kicking the can down the road, meaning that what could have been a relatively stable mediocrity all the way to the elections could be replaced with frequent turbulence. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICAL ANALYSIS Massa on fire 25-03-2023 05:01 It’s been clear for some time now that Massa’s plan to resist through Peronist gradualism could reach a limit in terms of how many sources of fresh funds he’ll be able to conjure up. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ANALYSIS Panic in Silicon Valley 18-03-2023 03:12 The global economy has stepped on another landmine. Increased instability will hurt Argentina, as it did after 2008. by Agustino Fontevecchia