Maduro the dictator, Trump the imperialist and the contours of a new world order

As the dust settles in Latin America after US President Donald Trump ordered the US Armed Forces to snatch Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and take him to a New York City jail cell to face accusations of narco-terrorism, multiple geopolitical “givens” have been called into question. 

First, that the global superpower is trying to impose its will on the Western Hemisphere using whatever means necessary, even a military operation that violates the national sovereignty of another nation. Second, that Trump cares very little for international law or even the US Congress, failing to seek permission from lawmakers to engage in a major military operation, which included the kidnapping of the political kingpin of another nation – one who clearly was a dictator and who illegally retained the Presidency through repression and fear. In addition, the US President had no qualms in stating that the reason he ousted Maduro was none other than the natural resources of Venezuela, namely crude oil, and thus regime change became a secondary objective. Democracy-building appears to have been fully erased from his foreign policy objectives. For Latin America as a region, this opens up a plethora of questions regarding how nations will position themselves against an increasingly aggressive neighbour who happens to control the most powerful military in the world, generating a league of friendly nations probably led by Argentina’s Javier Milei and a series of detractors, with Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro at the forefront. Ultimately, whether the US plan works in pacifying and reintegrating Venezuela into the regional community of nations will end up being the bar by which these actions will be judged by history.

Maduro was unquestionably a dictator of the worst kind. A 2019 report by the then-United Nations high commissioner for human rights, former Chile president Michelle Bachelet, chronicled massive human rights violations, including clandestine detentions and extrajudicial executions. Washington now adds into the mix the leading of a narco-terrorist conspiracy intending to flood the United States with drugs. The latter is more difficult to prove, as demonstrated by the court’s decision to downplay the idea that Maduro was the head of the so-called ‘Cartel de los Soles,’ which isn’t so much of a criminal organisation but rather a designation referring to widespread corruption and influence of drug-cartels throughout the Venezuela government and military. Under Maduro, the Chavista regime doubled down on its authoritarianism, maintaining its position of power through corruption, repression, and electoral manipulation and fraud. The final straw was banning opposition leader María Corina Machado from running for office in 2023 and the successive manipulation of the 2024 election that the opposition, led by Machado’s placeholder candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, credibly indicates it won by a landslide. 

Maduro and the key pillars of the Bolivarian regime including vice-president (and now interim leader) Delcy Rodríguez, Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López and Interior & Justice Minister Diosdado Cabello had no intention of bowing to international pressure or diplomacy. This point is fundamental – attempts by regional and international leaders to reach a negotiated exit for the Maduro regime had proven futile. So had sanctions and international pressure, with botched attempts led at different times by Juan Guaidó and the aforementioned Machado. Trump’s decision to unilaterally attack and extract him, while contrary to the region’s principles of non-aggression and peaceful resolution, appeared to be the only solution that could spark a real change. Albeit executed by an increasingly imperialist Trump whose geopolitical reasons appear to be natural resource appropriation and the strategic expulsion of its major adversaries from the region (China, Russia, Iran).

Yet the region has already suffered the scourge of “Yankee” intrusion in its affairs. Nearly all of Latin America was engulfed by bloody military dictatorships in the second half of the 20th century, a majority of them aligned with the US and engaged in serious human rights violations, including genocide. Seeing a strongman take the keys to the region’s socio-political-economic inclinations is ominously reminiscent of the darkest days of the recent past. It feels even more terrifying when the man with his finger on the button is Trump, who has demonstrated he will use his political, economic, and military influence to meddle in the internal affairs of other nations to favour potential allies. Yet it would be equally troubling with someone like Barack Obama, an esteemed figure in the region and considered by many as a statesman (he won the Nobel Peace Prize that Donald so desires) but who was also the power behind one of the most violent moments of the “war on terror” that also included humans rights violations such as forced disappearance and extrajudicial killings.

The resolution of the Venezuelan issue is fundamental in determining whether this was an ugly but necessary violation of our moral principles or the beginning of a dark new era. It is troubling to see Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio snub Venezuela’s opposition in their transition plans, while propping up the figure of Delcy Rodríguez. It was sad to see Machado seemingly offering up the Nobel Peace Prize to Trump in a Fox News interview after being sidelined from the process. The argument appears to be that keeping the Chavista regime in power, but in constant fear of a US military attack, will help in avoiding a descent into chaos while granting total leverage in negotiations. Rubio’s three-point plan included economic stabilisation by jump starting the oil industry, “reconciliation” and amnesty, and transition. In a recent piece in Perfil, international analyst Andrei Serbin Pont explained that Chavismo is a “system of state capture with control over institutions, impunity incentives, and a coercive apparatus” that is designed for survival. In order to dismantle the regime, it’s fundamental to reform the security forces in a way that avoids their continued degradation and stalling of the transition. There’s also the need to gain legitimacy via fair and open elections, which Machado would probably handily win. Trump holds the keys and his consistent slobbering over oil, together with his disinterest in reestablishing democracy, raises serious red flags.

Venezuela is a continent-wide issue. The failed state not only became a pariah, it also created nearly eight million migrants, according to the UN Refugee Agency. A descent into further chaos will spark concerning situations, particularly at border regions in Colombia, where narco-guerrilla groups remain active, and in Brazil. The situation has become politically and ideologically divisive as well, with right-leaning leaders across the region throwing their support behind Trump’s decision to intervene militarily, while those in the left express their total rejection. It is an opportunity for Milei, who has become one of Trump’s most loyal allies in the region and was rewarded with a bailout that allowed him to surprisingly win a difficult midterm election; others will try to follow suit. Lula, in Brazil, is on the flipside, having been particularly targeted by sanctions as the courts prosecuted far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro. He faces elections in October and will be facing off with Bolsonaro’s successor, reportedly the ex-president’s son Flavio, who will count on the total support of the White House. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, engaged in a war of words and social media posts with the US president, has legislative elections in March and a presidential vote in May.

The global paradigm of relative peace mediated by a single superpower through commerce, globalisation and the limited use of military force had already crumbled before Trump sought to re-write it himself. The emergence of right-wing strongmen was a response to the vices of a system that shattered under its own weight, failing to generate better conditions for a majority of the population while sparking fear, rejection, and rage in many who found themselves excluded, both economically and socially. 

The contours of the new world order are beginning to reveal themselves. US action in Venezuela could seem to legitimise Russian Premier Vladimir Putin’s landgrab in Ukraine, while Trump’s suggestions he may take over Greenland could signal a breakdown of NATO and further weakening of Europe. China, constantly eyeing Taiwan and increasingly well equipped at sea, could become emboldened. Latin America will continue watching on from the sidelines, but the risk of subjugation has been increased.