ANALYSING ARGENTINA Pax cambiaria, pax mafiosa? 16-03-2024 06:45 Inflation and crime are at the top of President Javier Milei’s agenda. Both will test his libertarian approach to problem-solving. by Marcelo J. Garcia
As I see it Drug-lords in the crosshairs 16-03-2024 06:35 By Latin American standards, Argentina is a law-abiding country whose inhabitants are far less prone to commit murder or be gunned down by thugs than is the case elsewhere in the region. Why do so many people in high places believe that the threat has become so frightening that the military should be called in? by James Neilson
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Meme politics, tackling price hikes and Milei’s North Star 16-03-2024 06:31 President Milei understands that he needs to deliver slowing inflation and the beginning of an economic rebound if he is to have a chance at truly governing the country. by Agustino Fontevecchia
CRIME & INSECURITY Rosario is always near 16-03-2024 06:25 As with so many other matters, Argentina’s leaders have not lived up to the challenge of efficiently combatting drug-trafficking. Yet it would be a mistake to confine the responsibility for Rosario’s bloody violence to politics. by Javier Calvo
ANALYSIS Monthly inflation slows to 13% as Milei’s cuts bite 12-03-2024 16:45 Inflation in February slowed for a second consecutive time as the impact of December’s large peso devaluation fades and President Javier Milei’s austerity measures push the economy into recession.
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Kicillof pushes the accelerator 09-03-2024 06:47 The racetrack metaphor employed by Axel Kicillof to reject Javier Milei’s invitation to his Pacto del 25 de Mayo would seem in line with the acceleration he has decided to give his positioning as an opposition leader. by Javier Calvo
POLITICS – ANALYSIS The joy of being Javier Milei and the threat of ostracism 09-03-2024 06:43 Milei needs his plan to move from the whiteboard — and social media — to the realpolitik realm of Argentina’s traditional power structure, either from within or by trampling over it. by Agustino Fontevecchia
As I see it The world has become too complicated for politicians 09-03-2024 06:27 Can Argentina or, for that matter, any other country buck the trends that are causing such concern not only in the West but also in China and Russia? by James Neilson
ANALYSING ARGENTINA The elusive goal Milei needs to score 09-03-2024 06:14 Javier Milei's government knows that should the president’s popularity sink further, his power to impose reform on “the caste” would wane significantly. by Marcelo J. Garcia
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Analysts improve outlook, forecast inflation slowing to 210% in 2024 08-03-2024 10:48 Experts consulted for Central Bank’s REM survey of market expectations lower forecasts for inflation in the next few months, predicting 15.5% rate for February and a 3.5% economic slump this year.
FEATURE INTERVIEW Ian Bremmer: ‘No matter who wins, many Americans will not accept the legitimacy of the election’ 02-03-2024 06:53 Influential political analyst and founder of the Eurasia Group traces a panorama of the elections which will be dogged by the spectre of the assault on Capitol Hill and the possible conviction of Donald Trump. In a feature-length interview, he debates the new world order – and offers a few remarks on Javier Milei. by Cecilia Degl'Innocenti
ANALYSING ARGENTINA Are two Caputos one too many for Milei? 02-03-2024 05:25 Foreign observers and investors welcome that Milei is a man on a mission to turn Argentina into a more open, more pro-market economy … but they don’t like conflict as the end itself, nor the Casa Rosada’s unwillingness to compromise. by Marcelo J. Garcia
POLITICS – ANALYSIS A mix of amateurism and strategy 02-03-2024 05:19 The Milei-Caputo plan is trying to hammer down inflation through a painful recession, hoping that once the numbers begin to look encouraging, expectations will help spark a bonanza of investment and ultimately growth. It’s a risky strategy. by Agustino Fontevecchia
STATE OF THE NATION – ANALYSIS Milei seeks pact with political leaders in bid to save reforms 02-03-2024 00:26 In his first annual address to lawmakers on Friday, Milei invited leaders from all parties to sign a 10-principle agreement that includes a “non-negotiable fiscal balance” and public spending cuts, as well as labour reform and free trade.
POLITICS Sign up to my reforms or face ‘conflict,’ Milei tells lawmakers 01-03-2024 22:34 President Javier Milei delivers aggressive yet gloomy state-of-the-nation speech, calls on his allies and enemies to sign up to his 10-point ‘Pacto de Mayo’ – or face the consequences.
AUSTERITY FUNDING ROW Milei detonates relationship with governors and opens up a war 27-02-2024 21:00 Provincial debt under the spotlight has made the governors seek allies. Who are in the deepest holes? Will the mega-decree be overturned? by Ramón Indart
OPINION & ANALYSIS Fight club 24-02-2024 06:08 For President Javier Milei, anyone who thinks differently is simply an enemy. This is a real problem because it undermines the very concept of democracy. by Nelson Castro
ANALYSIS Economy shrank in December by most since pandemic 22-02-2024 21:14 Argentina’s economy contracted in December by the most since the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
ANALYSIS Milei’s ‘maquinita’ – How many pesos is Central Bank printing? 22-02-2024 15:31 Since Javier Milei entered the Casa Rosada as president, Argentina’s monetary authorities have continued minting the national currency – while altering its destination. Why is there talk of the "benign" printing of money? by Martín Fernández Nadale
Opinion & Analysis Political deadlock threatens economic change 17-02-2024 06:00 Unfortunately for President Milei, the political community he has joined has its own largely tacit rules which have little to do with economic efficiency. by James Neilson
EUROPEAN POLITICS Far right could exploit EU's economic slump to win big in June vote 13-02-2024 11:46 Soaring food costs, economic stagnation and deteriorating living standards risk pushing voters into the far right's arms in European elections later this year.
POLITICS – ANALYSIS ‘Synthetic’ in a world in flux: Milei faces a political defeat 10-02-2024 00:36 What will the near-future of the Milei administration look like after having effectively demolished bridges with the “moderate” opposition that sought to offer a helping hand? by Agustino Fontevecchia
El Salvador Elections Next hurdle for El Salvador's Bukele: the economy 05-02-2024 11:35 With high public debt, nearly a third of the population living in poverty and fast-rising consumer prices, Salvadorans are increasingly starting to think of what comes next.
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Living on the edge 03-02-2024 06:23 It feels as if the president is pushing the boundaries of negotiations beyond reasonable points. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Congress & Politics Milei's omnibus reform clears first hurdle as lower house backs bill 02-02-2024 18:48 President Milei's sweeping omnibus reform bill wins general approval in lower house after three long days of debate; Votes in favour totalled 144, with 109 against; Lawmakers will vote on it article-by-article next Tuesday.
POLITICS & ECONOMY The limits of Milei’s ‘synthetic power’ 27-01-2024 09:19 While his digital energy can be translated into real world power, Javier Milei and his team must be careful not to confuse their popularity with actual muscle. by Agustino Fontevecchia
BLOOMBERG - OPINION JP Spinetto: Milei’s unapologetic defence of capitalism missed a key point 20-01-2024 08:48 What masters of the universe in Davos most wanted and needed to hear were his concrete plans to take Argentina out of its chronic malaise. They were left wanting.
POLITICS Instant democracy and turbo-politics in the age of Milei 13-01-2024 06:58 No-one can predict how long Javier Milei’s honeymoon period will last, but it does appear to be softening a bit. by Agustino Fontevecchia
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Inflation hit 211% in 2023, fastest gain in three decades 11-01-2024 16:27 Argentina ended 2023 with the fastest inflation in more than three decades as President Javier Milei started to unwind a thicket of currency controls and price freezes imposed by the previous administration.
POLITICS – ANALYSIS The ‘right plan,’ the ‘only plan,’ or ‘no plan’? 06-01-2024 07:33 Either Milei is a daredevil convinced he’ll make it out alive, he has no choice and is winging it, or he’s got a couple of cards up his sleeve that we’re not seeing. by Agustino Fontevecchia
Congress & Politics Congress kicks off year forming key committees and debating single paper ballot 04-01-2024 16:26 Chamber of Deputies defining bicameral commission to study Javier Milei’s omnibus law; Bill contemplates the privatisation of public companies and grants parliamentary prerogatives to the government, among other points.
Politics CFK seeks to reorder her lawmakers for Milei’s first political test 04-01-2024 15:18 Former vice-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner believes that the formation of the Bicameral Commission to halt the presidential emergency decree is urgent while sending a message to the rest of Peronism to reorder its ranks and joshing about the ex-president’s festivities in Spain. by Ramón Indart
POLITICS – ANALYSIS Milei knows the clock is ticking 31-12-2023 17:53 While the political class and the media have spent days debating the DNU emergency decree and the so-called “omnibus” law which seeks to fully deregulate the economy, whether it is constitutional or not, and whether it conforms with the processes and best practices of democracy, the real issue lies elsewhere – how long will society be able to tolerate such an aggressive correction? by Agustino Fontevecchia
Emergency decree controversy Milei’s bluff 23-12-2023 06:16 Praised for his moderation and pragmatism over the last several weeks, the self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist has now put in place a series of controversial measures which have divided public opinion. by Agustino Fontevecchia
GUEST VOICE Protest and circulation – a clash of two worlds 19-12-2023 21:52 The right to demonstrate and move freely are on a collision course in Argentina. Not to be taken as something natural. But the way out must inevitably be via dialogue.
Bloomberg Hedge fund rides Argentina gain, says Milei is underestimated 12-12-2023 09:50 Brazilian hedge fund manager Vista Capital says Javer Milei is more "political and sensible that many watchers anticipated."
NEW ERA FOR ARGENTINA Milei and a libertarian’s wet dream 09-12-2023 05:45 Is Milei’s ambitious reform package possible in today’s Argentina? Not only does his La Libertad Avanza coalition lack congressional muscle, but both of its negotiating partners are deeply fragmented, muddying the legislative front. by Agustino Fontevecchia
POLITICS Milei enjoys peak honeymoon phase 02-12-2023 14:48 While serious doubts remain, Argentina’s president-elect is acting carefully and strategically in the conformation of his cabinet and government, seemingly betting on experience over ideology. Once the glow begins to dim and his “chainsaw” austerity plan is in full force, what Milei will face the music? by Agustino Fontevecchia
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Living in Milei’s world 25-11-2023 14:22 These initial steps are positive in maintaining the situation from blowing up but they are insufficient in and of themselves. Not only would this cordiality and cooperation have to be maintained over time, Milei’s strategy would actually have to work. by Agustino Fontevecchia
CAMPAIGN COMMENTS Method in his madness? 25-11-2023 14:16 Javier Milei’s solitary rise to the top from almost nowhere in a couple of years is more apparent than real. The key to this success is more like the solution to Agatha Christie’s 'Murder on the Orient Express' – they all did it. by Michael Soltys
IN FOCUS Fed-up voters put Latin American leaders on thin ice 25-11-2023 12:43 Across the region, disgruntled voters have repeatedly toppled incumbents, often in favour of outsiders or inexperienced politicians.
POLITICS & ECONOMY Wall Street cheers as Milei swaps dollarisation for Macri brass 24-11-2023 13:07 Javier Milei pivots away from advisers advocating for his most dramatic campaign promises, choosing Wall Street veterans closer to Mauricio Macri.
TWO PEAS IN A POD? Milei is no 'Trump of the Pampas', analysts say 23-11-2023 14:54 Comparing Argentina's president-elect Javier Milei to former US president Donald Trump could be misleading, analysts say.
MILEI’S GOVERNMENT Who will be in Milei’s Cabinet? Confirmed ministers, secretaries 22-11-2023 22:51 The libertarian government will have eight ministries, with Human Capital and Infrastructure the new innovations. Many previous ministries will become secretariats. A look at the confirmed and possible names in the next Cabinet.
ELECTIONS 2023 – ANALYSIS Into the unknown 20-11-2023 16:44 The emergence of an anti-political outsider and redrawing the map of the political scenario on yet uncertain bases – those are the first conclusions left by the consecration of Javier Milei. by Walter Curia
MARKETS Wall Street welcomes Milei victory but warns of challenges ahead 20-11-2023 14:29 Analysts and investors welcome the prospect of radical change in Argentina but warn about deep challenges facing Javier Milei.
ELECTION 2023: ANALYSIS The lion king 20-11-2023 13:57 This presidential election was about change, and we knew that at least two years ago when the government lost the midterm legislative elections. The question was which opponent would take the laurels. by Carlos Fara
BLOOMBERG - ANALYSIS Milei opens a new era: What comes next in Argentina policy-making 20-11-2023 09:25 Milei’s biggest political challenge will be his lack of support in Congress, where his party only counts a minority of senators and a fraction of lower house representatives.
ELECTION 2023: RUN-OFF Massa concedes defeat; Milei elected Argentina's next president 19-11-2023 17:47 Economy Minister Sergio Massa concedes defeat in election run-off and congratulates rival; Libertarian lawmaker Javier Milei elected Argentina's next president.
ELECTIONS 2023 Argentina’s heartland shows quandary of election choice few want 17-11-2023 07:24 Argentina’s electoral dilemma is arguably felt most acutely in Cordoba, where 1.2 million voters opted for neither of the candidates in the run-off — the highest percentage of any district in the country.