News of opinion

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Back to the (Western) World

25-01-2020 11:34 At policy level the administration is seeking to cultivate ties with the US on the issues that Trump White House most cares about.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

MINISTRY POSITIONS

The politics of security

25-01-2020 11:28 Curiously enough, ever since the ministry’s birth in late 2010, Argentina’s “top cop” has always been a woman apart from six months.

by Michael Soltys

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

A little less conversation, a little more action please

25-01-2020 11:01 The connective strings of the Albertista narrative up until now have relied on two major concepts: blame Macri and the neoliberal gorrillas, and “Peronist optimism.”

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

The joys of pessimism

25-01-2020 10:32 Would a socialist world order make things any better? To judge from the experience which was so generously provided by the Soviet Union before its demise, it would be sure to make them a great deal worse.

by James Neilson

GUEST VOICE

Honour the dead and attend to the living

25-01-2020 10:09 It is impossible to think that Man could submit one of its own kind to such an experience as the Holocaust.

by Ariel Gelblung

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Boy, you’re going to carry that debt a long time

25-01-2020 10:04 Keeping calm and carrying on when you owe the world billions is all very well, but the markets tend to get hysterical when financial deadlines near. At some point, Martín Guzmán will have to make an offer.

by Martín Gambarotta

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Will Alberto bring Francis back home?

18-01-2020 12:40 The Pope wields considerable influence over many local leaders, most notably on social movements who represent the unemployed and are connected with grassroots Catholic priests.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

MINISTRY POSITIONS

Alberto installs a double-hinged Cabinet

18-01-2020 10:57 A political science graduate, politics has been his entire life apart from brief stints in legal and banking work plus an unsuccessful book-shop venture. For Santiago Cafiero, life now begins at 40.

by Michael Soltys

NEW ERA

Hello default my old friend

18-01-2020 10:28 Kicillof has set the stage. But soon Alberto Fernández and Guzmán will be the leading actors. Or is this just Kicillof’s play?

by Martín Gambarotta

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Building a centre by sheer force of word

04-01-2020 09:23 A president should craft his words carefully and use them with conscious moderation, knowing that any word that comes out of a head of state’s mouth is virtually seen as policy.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

USA vs. IRAN

Eli Lake: Trump sends a deadly message to Iran’s regime

04-01-2020 08:58 For 40 years US presidents have pondered a fundamental question about Iran, best summed up by Henry Kissinger: is it a country or a cause? On Thursday evening, Donald Trump gave his answer.

POLITICS & LABOUR

Happy this is not an election year

04-01-2020 07:05 The interaction between President Fernández and Governor Kicillof will be watched closely. The ruling party can’t afford to see its popularity drop in its giant bastion before its federal fiscal policies have a chance to kick in.

by Martín Gambarotta

AS I SEE IT

The challenges ahead

28-12-2019 09:38 The many who find merely materialistic values hollow may feel the constant worrying about economic developments and the subordination of education to the labour market distasteful, but for the 40 percent or so of the Argentine population which is already below the poverty line to enjoy a better life, its members will need not just handouts paid for by money taken from the marginally better off but also the skills and aptitudes they will require to prosper in an ever more demanding world.

by James Neilson

FERNÁNDEZ’S PLAN FOR 2020

Buying time

28-12-2019 08:59 It is difficult to imagine how Alberto Fernández’s pompous rhetoric, and lack of a concrete and structural plan, will “put Argentina back on its feet,” as he promised throughout the campaign.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Around the crisis in 180 days

21-12-2019 10:49 With extra powers and an economic Cabinet that politically responds to his directives, the president would be able to claim the credit of success – but he would also have to pay the full price of failure.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

In defence of Martín Guzmán

21-12-2019 09:50 The current state of Argentina’s economy is perilous. The typical metaphor is that of a ticking time-bomb, the same one that was used when Macri took over the reins from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Goodbye gradual-ism

21-12-2019 08:50 Macri's ‘gradual-ism’ didn’t work. Marci gradually lost popularity until he gradually lost the election.

by Martín Gambarotta

AS I SEE IT

In the land of make believe

14-12-2019 11:52 Fernández says the better off should shoulder the bulk of the sacrifices that will have to be made to save the country from an economic collapse as disastrous as Venezuela’s. He could start by ordering big pay cuts for legislators and members of his government.

by James Neilson

ARGENTINA'S NEW ERA

A permanent state of emergency

14-12-2019 10:40 Guzmán’s unexpected appointment at the helm of the hot-potato ministry strikes a delicate balance between the economic views of the president and those of the vicepresident, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Guzmán, not Superman

14-12-2019 10:32 Argentina has always had a love-hate relationship with its economy ministers. There is this undying hope that a sensational economist will come one day to save the nation from its financial doom.

by Martín Gambarotta

JUDICIAL REFORM

Alberto’s utopian ideal clashes with a putrid Judiciary – and CFK

14-12-2019 08:55 If Alberto gets this right, then the building blocks of a society much less prone to corruption would be put in place, which of course would help in constructing credibility, governability, and prosperity.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

Cristina is back, on steroids

07-12-2019 12:19 Unless the new president manages to tie her down, next week Argentina will fall into the hands of a lady many of her compatriots, and most foreign leaders and businessmen, believe to be extremely corrupt.

by James Neilson

ALBERTO AL GOBIERNO, CRISTINA AL PODER’

Alberto, Cristina and a distaste for institutions

07-12-2019 11:08 The same corrupt justice system that was subservient to the Kirchners during their glory days, and which vehemently went after Kirchnerite corruption under Macri, will most probably favour Cristina once she assumes the Vice-Presidency.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

TRANSITION 2019

What will Alberto Fernandez do in his first 100 days?

07-12-2019 10:21 Three days out from his inauguration and following the announcement of his Cabinet yesterday, Alberto Fernández can now look ahead to his first 100 days in office, which will have one main driver: averting a debt default.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

TRANSITION 2019

Hasta la vista, Macri

07-12-2019 10:11 The critics, by voicing their complaints so early against the new government, risk overkill. Alberto Fernández’s honeymoon will be short. But this early searing criticism is like filing for divorce before getting married.

by Martín Gambarotta

A DIPLOMATIC APPROACH

Walking the walk and talking the talk in Latin America

06-12-2019 07:00 A closer look at the US and Chinese diplomatic presence in the Americas, with the region gripped by social and political turmoil.

by Tomás Brockenshire

BLOOMBERG - OPINION

John Authers: Trump doesn’t understand currency wars, either

02-12-2019 22:47 Any implication that Argentina is deliberately weakening its currency for competitive advantage is beyond absurdity.

AS I SEE IT

The long war against capital is coming to a triumphant end

30-11-2019 11:39 These days most Peronists, including Alberto Fernández, would very much like to see “capital” return to the country from which they banished it, but such is the state of the economy that getting it to do so will be anything but easy.

by James Neilson

TRANSITION 2019

To December 10 – and beyond

30-11-2019 11:17 Fernández de Kirchner, before she won the presidency in 2007, cut her teeth for years as a parliamentarian. Now she is back in the house she knows best.

by Martín Gambarotta

TRANSITION 2019

Alberto’s dilemma: Is this 2001 or 2003?

30-11-2019 09:37 The line is classic 2003. Néstor would tell anybody who would listen back then that “dead debtors don’t pay,” in what was a neat strategy to negotiate better terms for the country’s defaulted situation.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

POVERTY AND INEQUALITY

Latin America’s poverty trap

30-11-2019 08:44 The real problem is that poverty is on the rise once again, and it’s not just the fault of President Mauricio Macri’s disastrous management of the economy.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

Make way for the Cristina and Alberto show

23-11-2019 13:26 From the moment the election results made it clear that her handpicked candidate had won, Cristina has been reminding Alberto he is simply an employee.

by James Neilson

TRANSITION 2019

Alberto: between Cristina and Kristalina

23-11-2019 11:23 The general suspicion is that Fernández de Kirchner might want to exert greater influence and the symbol of the president-elect calling on the vice-president-elect – instead of vice versa– only fuels that notion.

TRANSITION 2019

In Néstor’s footsteps

23-11-2019 11:01 Argentina has a history of presidents who campaigned doing one thing and then ended up doing another. Some observers say the same thing may happen with Fernández.

by Martín Gambarotta

FERNÁNDEZ’S ILLUSION

The myth of Latin American prosperity

23-11-2019 09:50 Today, our continent faces the impossible task of becoming competitive on a global scale with an absolute lack of infrastructure, limited credit, cramped capital investment for decades, and galloping inequality.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

A very unusual coup d’état

16-11-2019 13:16 A few weeks ago, Fernández insisted that he would do his best to get on with other countries without discriminating between those which shared his views and those which did not, but that was then.

by James Neilson

TRANSITION 2019

Bolivia boils over

16-11-2019 12:50 Argentina’s economic situation is extremely difficult. But the national conversation is now about the wider region. Out on the streets, everybody is an expert on Bolivia’s Constitution.

by Martín Gambarotta

FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Putting Bolivia’s power vacuum in context

16-11-2019 12:32 It is this column’s contention that Evo Morales was the greatest president in Bolivian history, but yet he crossed the line long before the forces toppling him.

by Michael Soltys

TRANSITION 2019

The risks of fragmented polarisation

16-11-2019 09:33 Depending on how the economy features in the coming months and how the coalitions manage to sustain complex internal balances, polarisation could soon crack into fragmentation, with unpredictable political consequences.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

LATAM WATCH

Messages in a bottle (from Washington)

16-11-2019 09:04 The statements emanating from the White House generally tend not to be very specific. But that was not the case here. Argentina was sent a series of precise signals and messages, calculated to fit within the timing of the transition.

by Carolina Barros

Bolivian Election Crisis

Why Macri should condemn the military intervention in Bolivia

12-11-2019 23:00 A critique of Foreign Minister Jorge Faurie's statement about the intervention of Armed Forces in Bolivia – and a call for President Macri to rectify a grave error.

by Gustavo González

TRANSITION 2019

Wishful thinking

09-11-2019 11:18 At some point, the cepo will need to be relaxed if Alberto’s pan-Peronist coalition dreams of attracting foreign investment. At some point, the situation will turn explosive.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ELECTION 2019

Welcome back, ‘la grieta.’ We didn’t miss you.

09-11-2019 10:49 The blame game will only deepen the crack that divides the political aisles.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTION 2019

Transition tensions

09-11-2019 10:36 Is the Cabinet chief already dreaming of a Macri comeback? Judging by the looks on the faces of Rodríguez Larreta and Vidal, the Cabinet chief is delusional.

by Martín Gambarotta

ELECTION 2019

The people fire Macri (with a pat on the back)

02-11-2019 11:44 Depending on how you choose to see it, Macri is either the first president to lose a reelection bid or the first non-Peronist president to fulfill his mandate since 1930.

by Martín Gambarotta

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Alberto’s tightrope act work?

02-11-2019 11:27 The president-elect will be walking a tightrope between convincing suspicious markets and making good on at least some of his promises to voters.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

OPINION – BLOOMBERG EDITORIAL

The financial view: Argentina doesn’t need more false promises

02-11-2019 11:20 Sunday’s win by Alberto Fernández has sparked talk of a return to the country’s storied left-wing populism. Yet it’s hard to move left — or right, or anywhere — when you’re boxed in by the legacy of chronic economic mismanagement.

ELECTION 2019: A PROVINCIAL MINDSET

How ‘the other half’ voted in Election 2019

02-11-2019 10:54 Last Sunday saw a much closer and more complex result with Greater Buenos Aires playing a far more decisive role than in August, supplying almost 80 percent of the winning margin of two million votes.

by Michael Soltys

AS I SEE IT

Let battle commence

02-11-2019 10:04 In the celebrations Cristina staged in Chacarita, the president-elect found himself getting treated as a bit player obliged to play second fiddle.

by James Neilson

TRANSITION

It’s quiet, too quiet

02-11-2019 09:19 Alberto must tread carefully but steadily in order to gain the trust and support of the opposition, achieving a good negotiation with sovereign creditors and then finding a way to lift capital controls while reforming the economy to jumpstart growth.

by Agustino Fontevecchia