News of opinion

AS I SEE IT

Cometh the hour, cometh Alberto

17-08-2019 11:56 Nobody saw it coming. Before people started casting their votes last Sunday morning, just about all the professional pollsters assured us that Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández were running neck-and-neck, some even suggested that the president was edging ahead.

by James Neilson

ELECTION 2019: PROVINCIAL BREAKDOWN (EPILOGUE)

Under the volcano

17-08-2019 11:45 Far from deciding the election, Buenos Aires Province was just one of the 14 provinces giving Fernández an absolute majority, even if obviously the most important.

by Michael Soltys

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Argentina (and Alberto) needs Macri to survive

17-08-2019 10:22 Macri’s shift of tone in the days after the PASO primary was a sign of a survival political instinct kicking in.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTION 2019

Macri fumbles PASO

17-08-2019 09:59 How did that happen? Well, unemployment is higher than in 2015. Poverty is higher than 2015. Inflation is higher than in 2015. Voters are having a hard time making ends meet. Top all that with the massive utility rate hikes and what do you get? Electoral defeat, that’s what.

by Martín Gambarotta

ELECTION 2019

Post PASO depression

17-08-2019 09:09 The country finds itself in a conundrum. An election that is not an election has prompted a potential ‘puppet candidate’ into a virtual status of power.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ANALYSIS: PASOs 2019

Three lessons from the PASOs

12-08-2019 13:06 The breakdown of the vote in the PASOs was surprisingly steady when compared to the past – it’s the electoral offer that made the difference.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

AS I SEE IT

Racism comes roaring back

10-08-2019 13:12 There can be no doubt that “identity politics” has taken over much of academia in the US and the UK, argues James Neilson.

by James Neilson

PASO 2019

What if a bomb flies in Hormuz?

10-08-2019 11:53 At the end of the day, pretty much any exogenous shock could throw everything in Argentina into disarray.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ELECTION 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

The yelling stops as voters provide an X-ray of Argentina

10-08-2019 10:01 The last week of the campaign, marked by China’s devaluation of the yuan, was yet another indication that Argentina is as fragile as it can get and that anything that happens abroad will hit the country head on.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTION 2019

All things must PASO

10-08-2019 09:49 The president’s camp is painting tomorrow’s vote as a crucial polarising showdown — even when the turn-out in the primaries is usually about two million voters less than in October.

by Martín Gambarotta

PASO ELECTIONS

Mauricio and Cristina will continue to feed the digital monsters

03-08-2019 11:52 According to Perfil, they have identified 32 segments this time around and are currently impacting 25 million Argentines online.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

Things are looking up for Macri

03-08-2019 10:53 The Kirchnerite ‘project,’ insofar as one exists, is almost entirely negative. Macri’s may be unappealing, but at least it is positive.

by James Neilson

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Is it (still) the economy, stupid?

03-08-2019 10:06 It is no surprise that President Mauricio Macri wants to talk about anything but the economy on the campaign trail.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Argentina’s election campaign runs into an economic vacuum

27-07-2019 10:22 The terms of exchange between the two rivalling factions in the presidential race will have to improve if the country is to tackle the economic difficulties it will be facing in the future.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

AS I SEE IT

BoJo makes it to the top

27-07-2019 09:41 For the “golden age” Boris sees ahead to come closer, he will have to finish a maddeningly difficult job – one his predecessor Theresa May was unable to complete.

by James Neilson

THE DEATH OF DE LA RUA

Statesman do not die; they become history

13-07-2019 08:26 Statesman do not die; they become history. And history will not leave de la Rúa in good standing. An economic slump, the suspicion of the rule of law, social collapse, a state of siege, repression, deaths. Many deaths.

by Edi Zunino

AS I SEE IT

A moderate in a land of extremes

13-07-2019 08:21 Macri’s government has much in common with the one headed almost twenty years ago by de la Rúa. It too is strong on civic virtues such as respect for freedom of expression, a willingness to play by the constitutional rules and a dislike of corruption which, naturally enough, makes it vulnerable to accusations others would find laughable.

by James Neilson

GUEST VOICE

The Commander in CEO

06-07-2019 09:33 While it’s true that some political processes still play out over months and years, today we increasingly see politics move to the beat set by social media, whether via viral content, expediting key global geopolitical events, or via a late night presidential tweet.

by Andrei Serbin Pont

EU-MERCOSUR DEAL

Macri scores brownie points overseas

29-06-2019 10:16 It is important the Mercosur team make sure that the final conditions of the agreement generate opportunities rather than dependencies. It seems to be the case: falling tariffs for the industrial and agricultural sectors are what Latin America needs in order to take advantage of its competitive advantage.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

The Trump solution

29-06-2019 09:10 It is entirely possible that, after mulling it over, Kim will feel tempted to take the bait being offered by Trump.

by James Neilson

2019 ELECTIONS

When everything changes so that nothing changes

22-06-2019 10:14 That Cristina still has a chance to make a comeback is as much a consequence of Macri’s disastrous economic policy as it is a conscious decision by his electoral team, led by Cabinet Chief Marcos Peña and Ecuadorian political analyst Jaime Durán Barba.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ELECTORAL RACE

Macri-Pichetto: the real story behind the scenes

22-06-2019 08:03 There was a previous bond uniting the destinies of Macri and Pichetto. In that Pink House meeting in which I heard about this issue for the first time, I asked what might be Durán Barba’s opinion when he returned from a trip abroad.

by Gustavo González

AS I SEE IT

Peronism rules, OK?

15-06-2019 09:14 To justify his decision to join forces with Macri, Pichetto insists that on this occasion the electorate faces a stark choice between democracy and authoritarianism.

by James Neilson

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Pichetto deliver what the establishment believes he can?

15-06-2019 09:08 “Emotions are not an aspect of my personality,” the Senator said in his first press round as vice-presidential candidate.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

Brexit Britain, Jair, Mauricio and the Trump effect

08-06-2019 09:40 Maybe, instead of dismissing the Trump era as a phase that will surely pass, we have to acknowledge that we have seen the Trump effect down our way, in Latin America, too.

by David Smith

ALBERTO, CFK AND FERNÁNDEZ-FERNÁNDEZ

Cristina’s silence

08-06-2019 09:09 We would be naïve to believe Cristina will actually relinquish power if indeed they make it to the Casa Rosada.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

MASSA’S TURN

Speculation

01-06-2019 09:50 Macri has also become a listener, calling for a pact to take the nation forward while inviting his allies to question his authority. He appears willing to even consider a vice-president from the Radical Civic Union (UCR).

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Never underestimate a ruling party

01-06-2019 09:02 This principle applies especially to this ruling party too, which has not been capable of sorting out the country’s severe and chronic economic problems but has proved to be a committed group of professionals whose electoral marketing is well above the local political median.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

SEMANA DE MAYO

25 de Mayo: a celebration we should know more about

25-05-2019 11:53 The business of patriotic dates is mostly a thing of the past, except where governments set the days of their choice to their importance.

by Andrew Graham-Yooll

‘FERNÁNDEZ-FERNÁNDEZ’ TICKET

Two less polarised poles

25-05-2019 10:29 Until last Saturday, Argentina’s polarisation was a force of pressure: as if one were inside a scrap cruncher.

by By ANDRÉS MALAMUD

FERNÁNDEZ-FERNÁNDEZ

Alberto Fernández the Virtuous?

25-05-2019 09:05 Alberto can be useful for Cristina in several ways. He is a skilled politician and an expert in the Machiavellian arts of always landing on his feet.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

FERNÁNDEZ-FERNÁNDEZ’ TICKET

The sum is less than the parts

25-05-2019 08:19 A unique achievement – the first time that a vice-presidential candidate has announced who would be “their” candidate for the presidency on this continent.

by Jaime Duran Barba

AS I SEE IT

France warming up once again

08-12-2018 10:22 His wavering could harm him greatly in the coming weeks and months. By showing weakness, Macron let it be known that he is not as tough as he had made out.

by James Neilson

LEADERS SUMMIT

G20 challenges: The soft power of an honest broker

17-11-2018 12:15 The challenge facing the Argentine chair was to reach consensus in a tense and complex world context, continued the young diplomat.

by Michael Soltys

G20 LEADERS IN BUENOS AIRES

Macri’s got a lot to lose from the G20 summitG20 LEADERS IN BUENOS AIRES

17-11-2018 09:34 On the face of it, Argentina’s president has a lot more to lose as he hosts the likes of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with the domestic economy in the midst of a painful economic crisis and the global agenda more focused on how to deal with protectionism.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

Trump survives the midterms

10-11-2018 12:01 Seeing the Republican Party lose ground in the House did nothing to stop Trump from proclaiming himself the winner. He has a point.

by James Neilson

ECONOMIC QUESTIONS

Midterms and the medium term

10-11-2018 11:55 Perspectives seem to be broadening from beyond a fiscal and monetary focus, realising that the problem is not just the budget deficit but also the balance of trade and payments.

by Michael Soltys

US MIDTERMS

A blue House ain’t strong enough to see off Trump’s foreign policy

10-11-2018 09:26 With the Democrats reflecting a diverse electorate, the Republican Party has instead reshaped itself into a Trumpian version of the traditionally conservative GOP.

by Carolina Barros

ECONOMIC QUESTIONS

The boys from Brazil

03-11-2018 10:00 Bolsanaro’s approach to Mercosur certainly proposes to shake things up regionally but falls short of being a ‘Braxit’ from the bloc.

by Michael Soltys

ON electoral risks

Can Macri lose in 2019?

03-11-2018 09:30 Monzó confirmed he will not run for office next year and some speculate he will join the ranks of his former party. This is another self-inflicted wound for Macri, as all he wanted was greater influence, yet the president and Peña pushed him aside.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

A real cultural revolution

03-11-2018 09:24 Evangelical pastors are leading a bloodless revolution that, unlike so many violent ones, really could turn out well.

by James Neilson

HOME AGAIN

Welcome to Buenos Aires

03-11-2018 09:18 Personally, I feel the failings of Argentina as a potentially organised society are to be seen everywhere.

by Andrew Graham-Yooll

AS I SEE IT

The wretched of the earth know the West is best

27-10-2018 08:48 The political climate has changed in Europe and, to a lesser extent, in North America, making it permissible to talk more honestly about the likely impact of mass immigration.

by James Neilson

ECONOMIC QUESTIONS

Cause I’m the taxman

27-10-2018 08:41 Last month’s trade surplus was certainly welcome news after 20 months in the red – the result of recession and devaluation rather than the protectionism espoused by Donald Trump.

by Michael Soltys

ON THE SIP GENERAL ASSEMBLY

SIP cedes control in Salta

27-10-2018 07:47 It saddens me that the Salta Declaration ended up being a document that benefits the large companies that dominate today’s digital world, namely Google and Facebook.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ECONOMIC QUESTIONS

Home, home on the range

20-10-2018 10:45 The government’s rent bill is a tricky issue ... it is not the demagogic wishful thinking of populism but rationally drafted legislation seeking to balance the various interests.

by Michael Soltys

AS I SEE IT

The Saudis let the mask slip

20-10-2018 08:51 The murder of a journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, is forcing Westerners to take a closer look at their alleged ally.

by James Neilson

FROM WHERE I STAND

We’re all in the same boat

20-10-2018 08:02 I idly wondered if I could compare Argentina today to an orchestra, one in which all the sections and most of the members are playing a different tune, with nobody taking any notice of the conductor.

by Robert Cox

POLITICS AND TIME

Argentine déjà vu

20-10-2018 07:53 Recession is beginning to generate political instability as different actors are now standing up to Macri, from union leaders to the Catholic Church.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

AS I SEE IT

Ultras on the march

13-10-2018 10:35 It has all been great fun for leftists, but their moment in the sun may soon be over.

by James Neilson