News of election analysis

A chainsaw pause to improve re-election hopes

19-09-2026 00:59 Milei’s Budget bill hides a crucial and realistic acknowledgment: his famous "chainsaw" will mostly pause over the year leading to the presidential elections in October 2027.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei’s Presidency at risk from stalling economy

18-09-2026 13:29 One year out from his re-election bid, the economic recovery that has underpinned President Javier Milei's popularity is stalling.

The ‘uncanny valley’ theory meets Milei and Cerimedo

22-08-2026 06:28 The reality of the Milei administration’s near three years in office is even more bizarre than expected.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Surging unemployment is Milei’s biggest political threat

19-08-2026 09:56 For a second straight year, the economy is growing yet employment is falling in the formal sector. Only one province, Neuquén, has added businesses during Milei’s tenure.

Quintela and the Peronists; Weird scarecrow strategy

08-08-2026 19:31 Most Argentines are telling pollsters that they would like something to change next year. But polls measuring voting intention still have Milei either in the lead or neck-and-neck with his main opponent.

by Marcelo J. García

The ‘Scaloni moment’ Milei needs to get re-elected

25-07-2026 03:56 Scaloni’s secret formula is simple and public: professionalism, humility, respect, and results. In more than three years in office and almost 10 years in the public limelight, Milei has never cooled down a controversy; on the contrary, he has been the one creating them.

by Marcelo J. García

The Milei siblings are losing soldiers, fast

13-06-2026 05:59 If Argentina’s football team has a decent showing in the World Cup, inflation continues to come down and the economy begins to grow, then Javier and Toto can hope to come out the other end and look to consolidate their political project for the second half of 2026.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Does Milei want a second term?

16-05-2026 05:57 The good news is that the vote for his re-election is still 17 months away; the bad news is that, at this rate, he might not win.

by Marcelo J. García

Is Kast caste?

20-12-2025 07:31 While Bolivia, Honduras and now Chile have all swung right in recent voting, Trump’s pet candidate in each nation had problems riding the crest of the wave.

by Michael Soltys

The curtain falls … and rises

13-12-2025 09:17 The new Senate has no less than 13 caucuses but the big picture has 21 senators responding directly to the Javier Milei administration, 26 in the Kirchnerite orbit, 14 in the centre-right and 11 heeding purely provincial interests.

by Michael Soltys

Nothing to see here

26-11-2025 12:32 Milei's honeymoon moment – the election result in October – cooled the overheated mood in society, the media and among the political elite.

by Javier Calvo

The City and the Senate

15-11-2025 05:05 While the government’s overall midterm triumph represented a huge shift from gloomy pre-electoral expectations, this city’s results did not show that much change from last May’s local voting.

by Michael Soltys

The colour purple

01-11-2025 06:10 Despite governing the province for 34 of the last 42 years, the Peronists ran up a hat-trick of national midterm defeats there last Sunday – in 2017, in 2021 and in 2025.

by Michael Soltys

Two-faced Milei: a second chance, but also a risk for Argentina

01-11-2025 06:10 Will Milei take advantage of the opportunity he has been granted in order to pursue a constructive political and economic agenda? Or will he use his newfound power to double down on his plan with no corrections?

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Electoral blank cheque – is the worst version of Milei yet to come?

26-10-2025 23:45 It was a victory that neither the polls nor the government itself predicted expected, but it carries a danger: with it. Will the President radicalise further after receiving this vote of confidence?

by Franco Lindner

The midterms are over – can Milei reinvent himself?

25-10-2025 06:17 For more than a year, Milei invested too much energy and resources in an election that was not structurally designed to change much of his future. He only seems to have come to understand that in recent weeks, when it became clear that La Libertad Avanza will not turn into a hegemonic force overnight.

by Marcelo J. García

Yankees come home

18-10-2025 06:26 Exactly 20 years ago next month, Washington silently retreated from the region. Now it’s coming back, in full swing.

by Marcelo J. García

Trump card or joker in the pack?

18-10-2025 06:15 Milei’s government is confident of success in only seven of Argentina's 24 districts but this fails to point out that fears of defeat are also only limited to seven provinces, with the other 10 up in the air.

by Michael Soltys

What comes after Javier Milei?

04-10-2025 06:22 The six governors who form the Provincias Unidas group are working on the assumption that Milei will not have a second term, just like his two predecessors. The question is what comes next?

by Marcelo J. García

The future’s not ours to see

27-09-2025 06:25 Mayoral tails wagged gubernatorial and presidential dogs in Buenos Aires Province but next month’s midterms stand to be genuinely, not synthetically national with the state of the economy and the quality of governance deciding votes.

by Michael Soltys