News of election analysis

As Argentina surges back, peso shows limit to Milei euphoria

28-10-2025 10:46 Argentina officials have repeatedly said they aren’t planning on enacting any changes to the current exchange-rate policy. As trading wore on Monday, the currency steadily pulled back from its early morning surge.

Why Argentines backed Milei in the midterm elections

27-10-2025 12:40 Javier Milei pulled off a stunning win in Sunday's midterm elections, boosting his flagging reform agenda. After two years of economic hardship, why did voters back the La Libertad Avanza leader at the polls?

Milei, the two Caputos and the two anchors

25-10-2025 06:08 Milei and the two Caputos have the path laid out for them. The “two anchors” that will give them a future are tied to applying the necessary adaptations to the economic policy plan and creating the conditions for circumstantial legislative majorities. This situation appears possible under any electoral scenario, even a potent Peronist victory.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

151 shades of grey

25-10-2025 05:58 Voters are being asked to select not the next president but 127 deputies and 24 senators for which 217 lists are contending in the 23 provinces and this City with a total 1,648 candidates. The multiplicity of combinations arising from these numbers points to an infinity of results, each one of which would make the parliamentary negotiations lying ahead slightly different with no chance of any overall majority – 151 shades of grey.

by Michael Soltys

‘Panic Show’ name of the game

11-10-2025 06:00 We are told that the choice is “libertad or kirchnerismo” but neither libertarians nor Kirchnerism will be able to do very much with the 110 of the 257 seats accruing to whoever wins – Argentina’s middle ground has far less seats than Brazil’s "centrão" but could carry equivalent clout.

by Michael Soltys

Espert's dirty financing

04-10-2025 06:45 On José Luis Espert’s ties with a suspected drug dealer and the libertarian obsession with coin.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

The lion sleeps tonight

20-09-2025 06:31 Milei actually polled a higher percentage in Buenos Aires Province this month than in BA City last May, yet the former is unanimously deemed an unmitigated disaster while the latter was a resounding triumph.

by Michael Soltys

Wake Milei up when September ends

20-09-2025 06:25 Both the economy and the politics of the country are telling President Milei he cannot fly solo anymore.

by Marcelo J. García

Ex-Peronist politicians at heart of La Libertad Avanza’s defeat in BA Province

11-09-2025 15:08 Ruling party’s leader in the district, Sebastián Pareja, and Moreno mayoral candidate Ramón Vera are Peronists who made themselves indispensable for the Mileis in the Buenos Aires Province structure. Yet theylost out in an election which the government had presented as a key test of national governance.

by Juan Cruz Soqueira

Election analysis: Peronism scores wins in districts for first time in 20 years

10-09-2025 13:44 Fuerza Patria finished top in the Second and Fourth Sections of Buenos Aires Province; La Libertad Avanza claimed victory in only two, the Fifth, centred on Mar del Plata, and the Sixth, with Bahía Blanca the main city.

Jousting in the lists

16-08-2025 06:30 In broad terms, President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza will be flying solo in half the country whereas Peronism is presenting a united front in three-quarters of the districts, including all the most important except Córdoba.

by Michael Soltys

Inflation ticked up slightly last month, less than expected

14-07-2025 18:54 Inflation ticked up slightly but less than expected in June, another win for President Javier Milei ahead of midterm elections.

CFK's return risks dividing opposition in boon for Milei

03-06-2025 14:22 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's decision to run in September’s legislative elections in Buenos Aires Province will set the stage for the national midterm vote the following month.

Where angels fear to tread

31-05-2025 06:33 The demolition job suffered by PRO in the City has most provinces now thinking twice about advancing their elections and exposing local hegemonies to the forces of heaven.

by Michael Soltys

New songs and Peronism

10-05-2025 07:50 Kirchnerism has no lyrics for its new songs – every intervention by CFK against Milei is always geared to the economic terrain, but from the perspective of his collapse and not improving on his achievements.

by Jorge Fontevecchia

Four-by-four voting

10-05-2025 07:20 Next weekend’s City race hogs the electoral limelight but there is voting even closer in time – like tomorrow when four provinces will be advancing their midterms.

by Michael Soltys

Santiago Caputo’s consecutive errors, government accelerates campaign mode

05-03-2025 10:25 Run of missteps by Javier Milei’s star spin doctor causes problems for the President.

by Ramón Indart

Can Kicillof break the spell?

08-02-2025 06:11 If the current political trajectory stands, Kicillof would face an uphill battle … but Argentina has shown in recent years that "impossible" is not in the local political dictionary.

by Marcelo J. García

Welcome to the New Political Order

09-11-2024 06:01 Trump’s victory and the Brexit referendum in 2016 marked the first significant political manifestations of a change of order. Trump’s impressive comeback this week appears to solidify it further. The next question is where President Javier Milei fits into this puzzle.

by Marcelo J. García

Rumours, lies and disinformation: ‘A lot of crazy’ in US election

03-11-2024 09:09 Elon Musk, Donald Trump helping amplify falsehoods about integrity of US election; Foreign actors also blamed by officials in Washington for sowing chaos.