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WORLD | 05-11-2024 12:13

Harris or Trump: United States of America decides in knife-edge election

More than 82 million people have already taken advantage of early voting to cast their ballots for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris.

Election Day voting got underway Tuesday morning in the United States of America after an extraordinary – and for many unnerving – presidential race that will either make Kamala Harris the first woman president in the country's history or hand Donald Trump a comeback that sends shock waves around the world.

As polling stations opened, Democratic vice-president Harris, 60, and Republican former president Trump, 78, were dead-even in the tightest and most volatile White House contest of modern times.

The bitter rivals had spent their final day of the campaign frenetically working to get their supporters out to the polls and courting any last undecided voters in the swing states expected to decide the outcome.

But despite head-spinning twists in the campaign – from Harris's dramatic entrance when President Joe Biden dropped out in July, to Trump riding out two assassination attempts and a criminal conviction – nothing has broken the opinion poll deadlock.

Tens of millions of voters are expected to cast their ballots, on top of the 83 million who have already voted early.

 

Long lines

US citizens lined up before dawn including in Black Mountain, North Carolina, where the voting station was a makeshift tent erected after severe flooding.

Long queues also formed in Erie, a critical city in battleground Pennsylvania.

"It's way, way, way more people here than the last" election, said Marchelle Beason, 46, after casting her ballot for Harris at an elementary school and putting on an "I voted" sticker.

"We're so divided right now, and she's about peace. And everything that her opponent has to say is really negative," she added.

At the same school, 56-year-old Darlene Taylor, who said she lives on disability benefits, noted her main issue is to "close the border."

"We don't need another four more years of high inflation, gas prices (and) lying," said Taylor, who wore a homemade Trump shirt.

Control of the US Congress is also at stake. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are 34 of the Senate's 100 seats. 

A final presidential outcome may not be known for several days if the results are as close as polls suggest, adding to tensions in a deeply divided nation. 

And there are fears of turmoil and even violence if Trump loses, and then contests the result as he did in 2020. Barriers have been erected around the White House.

The world is anxiously watching, as the result will have major implications for conflicts in the Middle East, Russia's war in Ukraine, and tackling climate change, which Trump calls a hoax.

Harris and Trump are effectively tied in the seven main swing states.

On Monday, Harris went all-in on must-win Pennsylvania, rallying on the Philadelphia steps made famous in the Rocky movie and declaring: "Momentum is on our side." 

However "this could be one of the closest races in history – every single vote matters," cautioned Harris.

 

History to be made

Trump – who would become the first convicted felon and oldest person to win the US presidency – cast himself as the only solution to an apocalyptic vision of the country in terminal decline and overrun by "savage" migrants.

"With your vote tomorrow, we can fix every single problem our country faces and lead America – indeed, the world – to new heights of glory," Trump told his closing rally in Grand Rapids in swing state Michigan.

Harris has hammered home her opposition to Trump-backed abortion bans in multiple states – a key vote-winning position with crucial women voters.

But she also struck an upbeat note – and notably avoided mentioning Trump, after weeks of targeting him directly as a threat to democracy for his dark rhetoric and repeated threats to exact retribution on his political opponents. 

A Trump comeback would be historic – just the second ever non-consecutive second term for a US president, since Grover Cleveland in 1893.

Trump's return would also instantly fuel international instability, with US allies in Europe and NATO alarmed by his isolationist "America First" policies.

Trading partners are nervously watching his vow to impose sweeping import tariffs.

A Harris victory would give America its first Black woman and South Asian president – and end the Trump era which has dominated US politics for nearly a decade.

Trump has said he would not seek election again in 2028.

But he also hinted he would refuse to accept another loss, and recently has brought up baseless claims of election fraud while saying he should "never have left" the White House.

 

US election: When will we know who won?

Officials are calling for patience as they tally ballots in what could be a historically close presidential race – and warning that it could take days to find out who has won.

Under the US system, citizens do not vote directly for their leader. Instead, their ballots elect the 538 members of a group called the Electoral College, which then elects the president and vice president.

Each state casts its Electoral College votes for the candidate that won its popular vote. Bigger states, with more representatives in the US Congress, get a larger share of the 538 Electoral College votes on offer. 

Harris and Trump will be vying to get to the all-important 270 votes that pushes them past the halfway mark and guarantees them the keys to the Oval Office. 

But with this year's race going down to the wire, experts point to a growing risk of delays and complications like legal challenges over the vote count.

Around 81 million people have voted ahead of Tuesday, over half of the total ballots cast in 2020.


How long is the count?

The first polls close at 6pm Eastern Time (8pm Buenos Aires) but when the race is tight, it could take days before a victor is projected.

In 2020, US media declared Democratic candidate Joe Biden the winner on Saturday November 7, although polls closed the Tuesday before.In 2016 and 2012, voters had a shorter wait.

After votes are cast, local election officials, who may be appointed or elected, process and count them. Tallying methods vary from one location to the next.

Many states have changed election laws to allow mail-in or overseas votes to be prepared for counting ahead of Election Day, although Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not made similar changes.

Both are battlegrounds that could swing towards either party. With mail-in ballots not allowed to be processed until November 5, this could slow counting.

Especially close vote counts can also trigger recounts.

 

Who certifies it?

Rather than waiting for winners to be declared by local authorities, US news outlets call races based on what they see in the voting. 

But this process is not official and results still have to be certified at the state level, with every ballot accounted for.

The deadline for states to certify their results is December 11, and each state's appointed electors then cast their votes for the candidate who won in their popular vote.

By December 25, electoral certificates of each state must be received by the President of the Senate, who is also the Vice-President – Harris.

On January 6, Congress counts and confirms the results, before the new president is inaugurated on January 20.

 

What may cause delays?

Certification is a formality, but experts warn that there are growing risks of obstructions.

At least 22 county election officials voted in 2022 to delay certification in battleground states, Brookings experts noted in a commentary last month. This was nearly a 30 percent increase from 2020.

At least 35 election officials have "refused to certify election results and may be in a position to do so again," according to Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Successful obstruction could impact state and federal certification deadlines, the campaign group warned.

The certification process has come under scrutiny and been especially politicised since Trump refused to concede the 2020 election. In that race, dozens of legal challenges by Trump and his allies were tossed out by the courts.

There has been a deluge of lawsuits from both parties ahead of Election Day, which might also complicate the tabulation.

 

– TIMES/AFP

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