Wednesday, July 17, 2024

ARGENTINA | 26-07-2023 14:23

Poll details post-PASO possible scenarios between Massa, Bullrich, Rodríguez Larreta and Milei

Opinion poll by San Andrés University shows Juntos por el Cambio as the force likely to receive highest voting intention and points to possible results in October. Inflation is the main problem for voters.

Analysts from San Andrés University have probed possible scenarios from the PASO primaries and what comes after: will be three-thirds split equally or more polarisation?

As for the PASO primaries, 16.1 percent of respondents said they would vote for the former national security minister, Patricia Bullrich, with Buenos Aires City mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta only receiving 9.1 percent in the national poll.

In the meantime, the second leader with the greatest voting intention in the PASO primaries is Javier Milei (13.8 percent), followed by Economy Minister Sergio Massa (13.5 percent), who would get an edge in the Unión por la Patria primary over Juan Grabois (4.9 percent). 

13.8 percent claimed they are still undecided, while 5,1 percent stated they would not vote.

“We are being cautious considering 9 percent still do not know or prefer not to respond and the margin of error of the sample is +/- 3.16 percent,” the San Andrés University poll said.

One of the topics most speculated about has to do with the scenario after the primaries, once the candidates are defined and there is a somewhat clearer outlook of voting intentions. 

In this vein, the poll forecasts –based on the answers of those polled– there could be two choices in the general elections in October, depending on who wins the PASO primaries from Juntos por el Cambio. In case Horacio Rodríguez Larreta wins the primary and ends up being a candidate, Sergio Massa would get most votes (20.6 percent), followed by a draw between Rodríguez Larreta and Milei, with 18.5 percent. 

The second scenario, on the other hand, would be if Patricia Bullrich wins the PASO primary of Juntos por el Cambio; then she would get 23.7 percent, followed by Sergio Massa (20.7 percent), and Javier Milei (15.9 percent). “A possible classic polarisation,” the poll pointed out. 

Inflation worries Juntos por el Cambio and Unión por la Patria voters equally 
Concern about inflation in the Argentine economy, apparently, has no gap. Respondents consider that the main problems affecting the country currently is the rise of the price index (55 percent).

 By segmenting the vote in 2021, “we observe that both Unión por la Patria voters (58 percent) and JxC voters (60 percent) see inflation as the main problems affecting the country”, the survey assessed. 

The other problems worrying people are still crime, theft and unsafety (38 percent) and corruption (35 percent). 

For Unión por la Patria voters, the next most important issue is justice (41 percent) and foreign debt (36 percent). For Juntos por el Cambio voters, in turn, the second main problem is corruption (53 percent), followed by crime, theft and unsafety (47 percent).  Seventy-seven percent considers that the country’s situation is worse than a year ago.

Quizzed about the perception of the country, those polled answered no by over 40 percent, both in retrospective and in prospective data. 

In retrospective, 77 percent of respondents claim that the national situation is worse compared to a year ago, while four percent considers it better. As for the personal situation of those polled, 11 percent believe they are better and 52 percent worse. 

In relation to expectations about the situation in a year 41 percent believes the country’s situation will get worse, whereas 17 percent considers it will get better.



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