Monday, June 24, 2024

ARGENTINA | 24-07-2023 16:55

PASO primaries: Poll points to 'technical draw' between coalitions, with Bullrich overtaking Rodríguez Larreta

New Atlas Intel firm assesses “all scenarios” between Massa and Milei clashing separately with Rodríguez Larreta or Bullrich in Juntos por el Cambio. Analysis produces hypothetical numbers for PASO primaries, first round and likely run-off.

International polling company Atlas Intel, which over the last few years has conducted multiple analyses in electoral processes from the United States to Latin American countries, has disclosed a survey with potential results in Argentina, and its results are definitely surprising because they have clear differences in several points with the surveys published by local consultancies over the last few weeks.

Thus, Sergio Massa could be the top choice in the PASO primaries, the first round would end up with a technical draw between the ruling party and Juntos por el Cambio when assessing coalitions, but the striking piece is that, according to Atlas Intel, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta would come in third in that first round (obviously if the primaries with Bullrich are favourable to him), which would leave Juntos por el Cambio out of the run-off, reduced to Massa and Milei. 

Those are some of the “headlines” shown by the survey whose CEO is the Brazil-based Romanian Andrei Roman, conducted between July 15 and 19 among 4,848 Argentines aged 16 to 100, with different income levels, gender, education, religion, throughout this country. The strong point of Atlas Intel is that it claims a margin of error of a mere one percent. 


Massa, the top choice in the PASO primaries

According to the poll, Economy minister Sergio Massa, would “win the PASO primaries”, that is, not only the Unión por la Patria (UxP) primary with Grabois, but would get more votes than both Juntos por el Cambio candidates and libertarian Javier Milei. 

According to Atlas Intel, the ruling party candidate would get 26 percent of the votes in the primaries, whereas Patricia Bullrich would be the top pick in her own primary and the second most voted, with 22 percent . The third place would go to the La Libertad Avanza candidate, Javier Milei, with 20 percent, and Buenos Aires City Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, would come in fourth.

“Massa is more popular among people aged over 60 (35 percent), Greater Buenos Aires inhabitants (35 percent), people earning over 250,000 pesos (31 percent) and people with primary school education (31 percent)”, the study added.

Another highlight is the “draw” between the coalitions in the PASO primaries. Unión por la Patria (33.8 percent) and Juntos por el Cambio (33.8 percent) would be at the top in that order, and third place would go to La Libertad Avanza (20.1 percent).


Rodríguez Larreta: third in the first round

The survey gauged both possible scenarios: with Rodríguez Larreta or with Patricia Bullrich, and in both cases once again forecasts Sergio Massa as the winner. The difference, and surprise, was that the City of Buenos Aires mayor would come in third, behind Milei. 

In a simplified scenario for the first round without Bullrich, Sergio Massa is still number one (31.9 percent), Milei number two (25.2 percent), and Rodríguez Larreta number three (23.5 percent). This scenario shows that Rodríguez Larreta manages to keep 96 percent of his voting intention in the primaries. It also shows a lower transfer of voting intention from Bullrich to Rodríguez Larreta: 54 percent. On the other hand, 21 percent of Bullrich’s voes go to Milei.

In a simplified scenario of the first round without Rodríguez Larreta, Massa is at the top (32 percent) but loses ground Bullrich (29 percent) only three points. On the other hand, Milei is still in third place (21 percent). This scenario shows that Bullrich manages to keep nearly her entire voting intention in the primaries (98 percent). There is also a 60 percent transfer of voting intention from Rodríguez Larreta in the primaries to Bullrich.


Run-off: Massa depends on the winner of the Juntos por el Cambio primary

Massa only keeps first place when facing Rodríguez Larreta (Massa 38.1% - Rodríguez Larreta 35.7%). On the other hand, in a hypothetical faceoff with Milei there is a draw (Massa 39% - Milei 39.1%), whereas a potential contest with Bullrich is lost (Massa 38.6% - Bullrich 43%). In a Massa-Milei run-off scenario, Milei keeps the 64.2% voting intention of those who voted for Macri in the presidential elections of 2019.

Milei loses both facing Rodríguez Larreta (Milei 29.7 percent - Rodríguez Larreta 31.6 percent) and Bullrich (Milei 26 percent - Bullrich 34.2 percent). However, the difference of percentage points is greater in a scenario against Bullrich (8.2 points). In a Milei-Rodríguez Larreta run-off scenario, the mayor mantains 51 percent of the voting intention of those who voted for Macri in the 2019 presidential elections. In a Milei-Bullrich run-off scenario, Bullrich maintains 67 percent of the voting intention of those who voted for Macri in the 2019 presidential elections.

“Undecided, blank or spoiled votes are centred on right-wing voters, which shows the left wing’s chances of winning the election are rather slim in the context of a potential migration of those voters in a potential run-off", the report added.

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