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ARGENTINA | 25-07-2023 14:51

Poll: if Rodríguez Larreta wins primary, over half of Bullrich’s voters would go to Milei

Survey by Federico González & Asociados consultancy firm shows Juntos por el Cambio will surpass ruling coalition by six points. Surprising aspect is migration of votes from opposition primary.

An analysis of nationwide voting intention on the PASO primaries determined that Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) would win the polls. As for the breakdown by presidential hopefuls, the top choice would be Sergio Massa, followed very closely by Patricia Bullrich, who would be two points behind.

The poll was conducted by political consultancy Federico González & Asociados. It was done online among 2,400 voting citizens nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.04 percent, between July 17 and 21.

According to the survey, in the primaries the winning bloc would be JxC with 34.2 percent of the votes. Unión por la Patria (UxP) would come in second with 28 percent. It would be followed by La Libertad Avanza (LLA), whose only presidential hopeful is Javier Milei, with 17.7 percent. At the same time, 8.4 percent are undecided and 1.9 percent state they would cast a blank vote.

When assessing the scenario of the PASO primaries with a projection of undecided voters, the result still places JxC as the winning force (37.3 percent), with a slightly larger difference than UxP (30.6 percent). Likewise, LLA would come in third, this time with 19.3 percent. Blank votes, in turn, would increase to 2.1 percent.

In the breakdown by presidential hopefuls, Sergio Massa was the top pick (22.9 percent), followed closely by Patricia Bullrich (21.1 percent) and Javier Milei (17.7 percent). In the count including the projection of undecided voters, the trend remains, with a slightly greater difference: Massa 25.9 percent; Bullrich, 23 percent and Milei, 19.3 percent.


JxC primary: Bullrich would beat Rodríguez Larreta

In the case of the opposition primary, Bullrich would overtake Rodríguez Larreta. As for the percentage over the general population, the former Security minister would get 21.1 percent and the City of Buenos Aires mayor 13.1 percent. Over the total of that primary, that difference would be considerably greater: 61.7 percent for the president of the PRO, compared with 38.3 percent for the Buenos Aires chief executive.

In addition, the consultancy compared the fitness attributed to both presidential hopefuls. In all cases, the former minister was chosen as the “most fit” in terms of holding the post of president, with courage to make tough decisions, combating insecurity and crime, fighting against mafias and drug dealing, lowering inflation, creating jobs, promoting an educational revolution and generate hope for a better Argentina. The only scenario in which the City of Buenos Aires mayor was deemed more fit than his rival was reaching agreements to bridge the gap and bringing peace to the country.

Moreover, when looking at the average affinity between votes for Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta, in JxC it is asymmetrical: high from voters from Rodríguez Larreta to Bullrich (81.4 percent), but diffuse in the reverse case (43.5 percent), where cross affinities are observed between Patricia Bullrich and Javier Milei (30.2 percent of voters of the former official would choose the libertarian).


Vote migration in Juntos por el Cambio primary

When assessing the likely vote migration, current Bullrich voters would mostly consider voting for Javier Milei (58.6 percent) in case the former minister were not a candidate (for instance, if she lost the PASO to Rodríguez Larreta); whereas the percentage that would go to the Buenos Aires mayor would be significantly lower (34.5 percent).

On the other hand, Rodríguez Larreta voters would mostly stay within the bloc. Thus, 92.7 percent would vote for Bullrich, whereas only 5.5 percent would jump to Milei.


UxP primary: Massa would beat Grabois

In the case of UxP, Massa would win his primary with Grabois. Over the entire population, the minister would get 22.9 percent of the votes as against 5.1 percent for the social leader. In the total numbers of the primary, Massa would gain 81.8 percent and Grabois 18.2 percent.

As for the fitness attributed to each candidate, the Economy minister was viewed as the “most fit” on all fronts: training to be president, reaching agreements to bridge the gap and bringing peace to the country, having the courage to make tough decisions, combating insecurity and crime, fighting against mafias and drug dealing, lowering inflation, creating jobs, promoting an educational revolution and generate hope for a better Argentina.

In terms of the analysis of the overlapping votes, the survey showed the average affinity between going to Massa and Grabois. Thus, 45.6 percent of those considering voting for Massa could also vote for Grabois. Among those stating they could vote for the social leader, 68.5 percent could also vote for the minister.

As for vote migration, Massa voters would mostly lean towards Grabois (78.6 percent), in case the minister were not a candidate. Conversely 97.1 percent of current Grabois voters would choose Masa if the social leader were not a candidate (for example, after the PASO primaries).

 

– TIMES/PERFIL

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