News of Marcelo J. Garcia

Marcelo J. Garcia

Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.

Five dogs and a million reds

Today 05:43 The government puts itself at risk by acting as if everything the President says is true, while Milei runs the risk of believing everything he sees on his social media feed.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Analysing Argentina

Is Milei feeling the fear?

20-04-2024 06:45 Milei’s government needs to pass legislation, something it has not been able to do in its first four-and-a-half months in office. Congressional approval would be an indication to Argentines and foreign observers alike that he means business.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Analysing Argentina

Why Javier Milei needs to be a bit like Néstor Kirchner

13-04-2024 05:40 Even though he may hate the sound of it, the lessons of the Kirchner dynasty – whose political fadeout is largely responsible for Milei’s meteoric rise to power – could help the President.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Analysing Argentina

Is President Milei growing in stature?

06-04-2024 06:39 Argentina’s president is exercising power fully, even as he continues to learn how the dynamics of it works.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Who wants to ‘exploit’ Argentina?

30-03-2024 06:43 The business establishment, here and abroad, are keeping a close eye on whether Milei and his team can deliver on governance – and whether they can do it soon.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Analysing Argentina

Another 100 days of solitude?

23-03-2024 06:30 If Javier Milei insists on tragedy, he might kill Argentina’s democracy – or vice-versa. He does not need to.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Pax cambiaria, pax mafiosa?

16-03-2024 06:45 Inflation and crime are at the top of President Javier Milei’s agenda. Both will test his libertarian approach to problem-solving.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The elusive goal Milei needs to score

09-03-2024 06:14 Javier Milei's government knows that should the president’s popularity sink further, his power to impose reform on “the caste” would wane significantly.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Luis Caputo, Santiago Caputo, Javier Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Are two Caputos one too many for Milei?

02-03-2024 05:25 Foreign observers and investors welcome that Milei is a man on a mission to turn Argentina into a more open, more pro-market economy … but they don’t like conflict as the end itself, nor the Casa Rosada’s unwillingness to compromise.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Most of the burden now falls on the office of Economy Minister Martín Guzmán, whom the president has given exclusive faculties in his economic Cabinet to lead – and speak in public about – the debt issue.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Eight weeks that will settle the next four years

01-02-2020 08:50 Argentina’s leadership finds common ground when it seems to be too late, arguably without noticing that crisis arrives after an earlier lack of accord, guided by automatic bickering.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The Fernández government wants to get along well with Washington, but without an automatic alliance.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Back to the (Western) World

25-01-2020 11:34 At policy level the administration is seeking to cultivate ties with the US on the issues that Trump White House most cares about.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Unlike his two non-Italian predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict, who rushed to go back home in the first year of their papacy, Francis has not set foot on Argentina. Why hasn’t he? And will he?

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Will Alberto bring Francis back home?

18-01-2020 12:40 The Pope wields considerable influence over many local leaders, most notably on social movements who represent the unemployed and are connected with grassroots Catholic priests.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The president has decided to give a little “Robin Hood” lustre to his first few weeks in office.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Alberto’s ‘Robin Hood’ approach offers clues for the future

11-01-2020 10:16 On debt, the government hopes to get a grace period of four years in an ideal scenario, but given the ambiguous willingness that IMF staffers and creditors seem to be showing, it is likely to get closer to two – if things go relatively well.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

This week, the president gave two lengthy radio interviews in which he used his public word to establish the political terrain for his leadership.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Building a centre by sheer force of word

04-01-2020 09:23 A president should craft his words carefully and use them with conscious moderation, knowing that any word that comes out of a head of state’s mouth is virtually seen as policy.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The president likely starts his first calendar year at the country’s highest political chair with a wishlist of things he would like to achieve.

2020: THE YEAR AHEAD

Alberto’s New Year’s resolutions

28-12-2019 09:56 What exactly is on Alberto Fernández’s New Year’s resolution list for 2020?

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Once the new bill is published in the Boletín Oficial, the government will have 180 days to, for instance, revise contracts and rates in the politically sensitive gas and electricity sectors.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Around the crisis in 180 days

21-12-2019 10:49 With extra powers and an economic Cabinet that politically responds to his directives, the president would be able to claim the credit of success – but he would also have to pay the full price of failure.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The news is that this is no news at all. Argentina was officially declared in an emergency after the 2001 debt default.

ARGENTINA'S NEW ERA

A permanent state of emergency

14-12-2019 10:40 Guzmán’s unexpected appointment at the helm of the hot-potato ministry strikes a delicate balance between the economic views of the president and those of the vicepresident, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Fernández has given some signals about what he wants to do with the country’s debt: kick payment as far ahead down the road as possible in order to give Argentina time to grow again.

TRANSITION 2019

What will Alberto Fernandez do in his first 100 days?

07-12-2019 10:21 Three days out from his inauguration and following the announcement of his Cabinet yesterday, Alberto Fernández can now look ahead to his first 100 days in office, which will have one main driver: averting a debt default.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

So far, Fernández seems to be acting on the assumption that most of the things he’ll face resemble those he faced before.

TRANSITION 2019

Alberto’s dilemma: Is this 2001 or 2003?

30-11-2019 09:37 The line is classic 2003. Néstor would tell anybody who would listen back then that “dead debtors don’t pay,” in what was a neat strategy to negotiate better terms for the country’s defaulted situation.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Argentina will soon be entering its third year of recession. The economy contracted 1.6 percent in 2018, will shrink a further 3.2 percent in 2019 and is likely to contract at least an extra 1.9 percent in 2020.

TRANSITION 2019

The risks of fragmented polarisation

16-11-2019 09:33 Depending on how the economy features in the coming months and how the coalitions manage to sustain complex internal balances, polarisation could soon crack into fragmentation, with unpredictable political consequences.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The political schism that has popularly become known here as ’la grieta’ is back (if it was ever gone) and yes, here to stay.

ELECTION 2019

Welcome back, ‘la grieta.’ We didn’t miss you.

09-11-2019 10:49 The blame game will only deepen the crack that divides the political aisles.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

On show was an unprecedented Peronist coalition of at least three factions, with loyalties and alliances seemingly ready to mutate, depending on random circumstances.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Alberto’s tightrope act work?

02-11-2019 11:27 The president-elect will be walking a tightrope between convincing suspicious markets and making good on at least some of his promises to voters.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The 2019 transition is more dramatic than symbols can get.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

The day after tomorrow

26-10-2019 11:42 A storm is brewing again in Argentina and the leadership are not getting the public ready for it.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

What do presidential candidates really offer?

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Do Argentina’s candidates care about the wider world around them?

19-10-2019 12:27 A navel-gazing campaign and the overwhelmingly local political discussion has prevented the main candidates and their teams from following the larger world picture around them.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The debate is good news in that it will bring a sense of normalcy to a country in which normal is the exception.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

A non-debate for a non-campaign

12-10-2019 09:43 With that strategy in mind, Macri is unlikely to be on the offensive too much when he faces Fernández in the city of Santa Fe tomorrow evening. Faced with the choice of taking a risk and trying to win a few extra votes or consolidating his support base more safely, the president will probably go for the latter.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Yes, we can. But can we?

05-10-2019 10:59 The political world upside down: an incumbent promises the impossible, the challenger urges caution.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Campaign watch

The IMF jumps ship – Argentina is officially on its own

28-09-2019 03:59 Timing is everything in diplomacy and business... Lipton’s carefully chosen words sounded like a bureaucratic version of revenge on a silver platter.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

CAMPAIGN WATCH

A campaign without much to promise

21-09-2019 09:51 Although Macri is anticipating some of the tough calls in order to save his own government (such as the capital and exchange control rules), the incumbent is also laying some ticking time-bombs along the way, like tax deductions and the freeze on fuels and utility rates.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Macri and Fernández have good reason to cooperate

13-09-2019 23:48 If he wants to have a future in politics, namely lead the opposition or even dream of a comeback à la Chile’s Sebastián Piñera, Macri needs to deliver an orderly end to his traumatic first administration.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Campaign watch

Argentina becomes a bundle of nerves

07-09-2019 00:55 At the end of the line the country has always faced the same trauma: more inflation, devaluation, recession and, eventually, default.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Elections 2019: Campaign watch

Macri should drop out of the presidential campaign

31-08-2019 00:42 More people might actually vote for Macri if they see he has made a political sacrifice for the common good.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Transition in recession: it’s all about cash

24-08-2019 09:55 After the PASO results, Macri has been left with virtually no power at all, to the extent that there are now doubts he can even steer a fragile economy beyond the October elections and into a civilised transition of command on December 10.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Macri shifted his tone after Monday's speech.

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Argentina – and Alberto – need Macri to survive

17-08-2019 10:22 Macri’s shift of tone in the days after the PASO primary was a sign of a survival political instinct kicking in.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

President Mauricio Macri (right) and other members of the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, including Buenos Aires Province Governor María Eugenia Vidal (

ANALYSIS: PASOs 2019

Three lessons from the PASOs

12-08-2019 13:06 The breakdown of the vote in the PASOs was surprisingly steady when compared to the past – it’s the electoral offer that made the difference.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Although nobody will be elected in tomorrow’s primaries, the election will provide an X-ray of where the public stands after a strange couple of years.

ELECTION 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

The yelling stops as voters provide an X-ray of Argentina

10-08-2019 10:01 The last week of the campaign, marked by China’s devaluation of the yuan, was yet another indication that Argentina is as fragile as it can get and that anything that happens abroad will hit the country head on.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Is it (still) the economy, stupid?

03-08-2019 10:06 It is no surprise that President Mauricio Macri wants to talk about anything but the economy on the campaign trail.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Argentina’s election campaign runs into an economic vacuum

27-07-2019 10:22 The terms of exchange between the two rivalling factions in the presidential race will have to improve if the country is to tackle the economic difficulties it will be facing in the future.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ANDREW GRAHAM-YOOLL

The master translator of reality

20-07-2019 10:58 Every word counted, in its exact meaning. And in times of fake messages and fake news, his legacy is more important than ever.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

De la Rúa’s lessons for Macri (and others)

13-07-2019 09:11 De la Rúa’s life provides lessons that the politicians of Argentina today should not turn a deaf ear to.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The reality of life in office was tougher than the president expected, and the country’s solvency crisis thwarted most of his plans.

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Government sells the future, opposition stuck in present

06-07-2019 09:24 This is the year that will define whether Macri's centreright, pro-market presidency is an exception to multi-headed Peronist rule, or if it’s the new norm for 21st century Argentina.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The economy is and will continue to be a burden President Mauricio Macri has to carry in his fight to reelection.

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Hushed dollar feeds Macri’s optimistic bias

29-06-2019 08:59 There were 204,000 less jobs in April than a year earlier. Salaries lost 10 percent of their purchasing power, also compared with a year ago. Income inequality widened and poverty climbed to 35 percent.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

But even at their costly 4.5 billion pesos, the debate over whether primaries should take place is futile.

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Electoral slates in, time to go to the shrink

22-06-2019 10:29 More broadly, the political establishment would also need to explain why the country has to vote in a primary in August in which none of the presidential candidacies competing in.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Pichetto as a delivery man. Is he up to Macri's expectations, though?

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Pichetto deliver what the establishment believes he can?

15-06-2019 09:08 “Emotions are not an aspect of my personality,” the Senator said in his first press round as vice-presidential candidate.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Macri deliver a stable currency through to the elections?

08-06-2019 09:49 In the Casa Rosada they know that economic recessions can be cause for any incumbent to fail to win re-election, anywhere in the world. They are even more certain that currency instability can instantly kill prospects for any politician in Argentina.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Never underestimate a ruling party

01-06-2019 09:02 This principle applies especially to this ruling party too, which has not been capable of sorting out the country’s severe and chronic economic problems but has proved to be a committed group of professionals whose electoral marketing is well above the local political median.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

If the Radicals can make Macri less radical...

25-05-2019 08:48 Fasten your seatbelts, because this is not over yet.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The most likely outcome is that the Radicals will let Macri run but get something grand in exchange, such as the vice-presidential candidacy.

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Polarisation bends, but does not break

18-05-2019 10:35 Will moderation ever pay off again in Argentina? Or is it just too boring?

by Marcelo J. Garcia

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Consensus will not come in the post

11-05-2019 12:18 Macri has repeatedly rejected the notion that he needed anybody outside his inner circle to run the country.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Mauricio Macri, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

Is Argentina on the road to a governability crisis?

04-05-2019 10:23 The main poles of Argentina’s political establishment are oceans apart, incapable of reconciling or even compromising on the pettiest item on the agenda.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Vidal has retained approval ratings that are consistently higher than the president’s by some 10 or so percentage points.

ELECTIONS 2019: CAMPAIGN WATCH

No, Vidal cannot cast a magic spell for Macri

27-04-2019 08:40 Argentina’s political system is never very civilised, but the grotesque becomes more visible when the country’s economy begins to spiral down into crisis, as seems to be the case now.

by Marcelo J. Garcia