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ARGENTINA | 06-11-2023 14:57

Presidential run-off 2023: Two new surveys differ on outcome

Latest polls show once again that it's anyone's race – consultancy firms CB Consultora, which got its forecast right in the general election, and Analogías, predict different outcomes in the November 19 run-off.

The latest polling numbers from Argentina show that the race for the Presidency is still up for grabs, with two new voter surveys forecasting different outcomes. 

The polls, produced by the Analogías and CB Consultora consultancy firms, show that ruling coalition candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, and his run-off rival, outspoken libertarian lawmaker Javier Milei, both have a chance of winning the November 19 second-round vote.

Milei, 53, is the favourite in the CB Consultora poll, which found that 46.3 percent of respondents planned to vote for the La Libertad Avanza candidate. 

The libertarian had a lead of just over three points over Massa, who had 43.1 percent. 

Of the remaining responses, 5.7 percent said they were undecided with 4.9 percent planning to cast a blank or invalid vote.

The study gauged the electoral ceiling of both candidates two weeks away from the second round. It quizzed 2,471 respondents and has a +/- 2.0-percent margin of error, and a 95-percent reliability level, said the firm.

CB Consultora’s reports are being closely watched this time around after it correctly forecast that Massa would finish first in the October 22 election.

Its survey showed that Milei had a positive image of 42.1 percent, compared to 40.5 percent for Massa.

An important feature is that “71.2 percent confirmed they would go to the polls” on November 19, a rise of “2.3 points above the last assessment on October 24,” according to CB Consultora.

As for the transfer of votes, the study claims that 73.4 percent of Patricia Bullrich’s voters (Juntos por el Cambio) from the general election will back Milei in the second round, “thus growing by 26.8 percent compared to our last figure on October 24, prior to the agreement.”

 

Massa to win?

However, in contrast to CB Consultora, another survey produced by Analogías shows Massa as the likely winner.

According to the consultancy firm, the economy minister should win the election on November 19. He is currently backed by 42.4 percent of respondents, whereas 39.7 percent said they will opt for Milei. 

The difference between the two candidates is 2.7 points, just a slither above the +/- 2.4 percent margin of error, with a 95-percent reliability level.

Of the remaining votes, 5.5 percent are set to cast a blank vote while 12.4 percent remain undecided. 

The survey is based on 2,324 nationwide consultations carried out between November 1 and 3.

In its report, Analogías indicated that “the difference in favour of Sergio Massa dropped from eight to three points compared to the three days following the general election, when the impact of his triumph shook the whole scene.”

Yet this work also took into account the political quagmire brought by Bullrich’s public support for Milei.

According to the survey, Bullrich’s declaration of public support for Milei caused a five-point transfer of undecided voters to swing to Milei, which was “foreseeable given the support by a part of Juntos por el Cambio (especially their presidential candidate) for his candidacy.”

 

– TIMES/NA

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