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ARGENTINA | 25-10-2023 14:57

First post-election surveys forecast different winners

Proyecciones, one of the consultancies which correctly forecast that Massa and Milei would make the run-off, forecasts a clear triumph for the Unión por la Patria candidate, but another produced by CB Consultora gives the libertarian the win.

After the unexpected result in the general election on October 22, consultancies have begun to disclose the first opinion polls on the outcome of the runoff to take place on November 19 between the La Libertad Avanza and Unión por la Patria candidates. CB Consultora revealed a very even scenario with a slight edge for Javier Milei (50.7 percent) over Sergio Massa (49.3 percent).

Yet the second assessment by Proyecciones shows a completely different scenario: 44,6 percent for Massa; 34.2 percent for Milei. In addition, 8.3 percent do not know who to vote for; 5.9 percent will cast a blank or invalid vote; and 7 percent would not even vote at all.

What is ironic is that both CB Consultora and Proyecciones were two of the consultancies which forecast that Massa and Milei would be in the runoff.

According to Marcelo Zunino, one of the directors of Proyecciones, “in this first survey, Sergio Massa consolidates his dominion in Buenos Aires and gets back votes outside the city. He does not lose votes compared to last Sunday, whereas Milei risks a small leak. And the biggest question mark is 60 percent of Bullrich’s votes which are undecided, would cast a blank vote or would not vote at all, that is what the focus will be over the next few days.

Proyecciones conducted the study between October 23 and 24 from among 1,459 actual and online cases via geo-localised sample point, with a 2.63-percent margin of error.

According to this poll, Massa and Milei are quite even in terms of image. While the Unión por la Patria has a 40.3 percent positive image, the libertarian leader reaches 38.9 percent. They are also very close in terms of negative image: Massa, 57.7 percent; and Milei, 56.4 percent.

When it comes to dividing voting intention by gender, 51.3 percent of women and 37.3 percent of men lean towards the Massa-Rossi ticket, while 29.2 and 39.7 percent respectively go for Milei-Villaruel.

As for age, Proyecciones reveals that: 39.8 percent of voters aged 16 to 34 choose Massa; and 40.6 percent Milei. The older the voters, the greater the voting intention for the current Economy minister: 50.8 percent (35/54); 44.8 percent (55); whereas Milei obtained 31.1 percent (35/54) and 27.7 percent (55).

These figures clearly show that the female vote elludes Milei, while youth votes (one of Milei’s strengths) in this case is much more even than people thought.

When those surveyed are asked about the likelihood that they would vote for Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, the answers were divided as follows: 44.8 percent said that they would vote for the Unión por la Patria candidate and 37.4 percent for the La Libertad Avanza candidate.

The interesting thing about CB Consultora’s survey is the distribution of Juntos por el Cambio votes, as the third force and from Hacemos Unidos por Nuestro País. Frente de Izquierda voters can be forecast with a little more certainty.

Out of those who voted for Patricia Bullrich last Sunday, 27.5 percent will cast a blank vote or not vote at all, and 11.8 percent are undecided. Among those who have decided, 46.6 percent will vote for Javier Milei and 14.1 percent for Sergio Massa.

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Felipe Leibovich

Felipe Leibovich

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