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ARGENTINA | 12-10-2023 18:22

Surprise surveys: Massa top pick in one, Bullrich makes run-off in another

Poll by DC Consultores claims Sergio Massa will fare badly, putting him third in voting intention. Yet according to consultancy Atlas Intel, from September to October, Bullrich and Milei have lost support and the ruling coalition candidate could finish first.

Two fresh surveys have forecast contrasting fortunes for Sergio Massa and Patricia Bullrich in the upcoming presidential election, with the only surety apparently being Javier Milei's entry into the run-off.

A new poll by DC Consultores, which surveyed some 2,700 cases through mobile devices between October 7 and 10, positions Bullrich above Massa in voting intention and even makes her the favourite in a run-off with Javier Milei in the presidential election. 

The survey also gauged the candidates’ “credibility,” with Córdoba Province Governor Juan Schiaretti the top pick. 

In terms of voting intentions, the survey leaves no doubt that Milei will be the most voted for candidate on October 22, giving him 35,6 percent. With 28.9 percent, the candidate for Juntos por el Cambio came in second, above 26.2 percent for Argentina's economy minister and candidate for Unión por la Patria. 

Even on the matter of which of the three options are more likely in the event of a run-off, the option between Milei and Bullrich won by 50.4 percent, whereas the one between Massa and Milei got 39.7 percent. The option without Milei only got 9.9 percent.

Another striking difference was the question “By which space do you feel represented?” – 35.3 percent answered La Libertad Avanza, 34.7 percent Juntos por el Cambio and 23.6 percent Unión por la Patria.

Voters are also improving their view of Schiaretti. In a question about credibility, the Córdoba governor came in first with 55.3 percent credibility. Milei was second with 48.1 percent, closely followed by Bullrich with 47.6 percent. Below them were left-winger Myriam Bregman with 36 percent, and Massa with 28.2 percent.


Massa wins in poll

A second national survey conducted by consultancy Atlas Intel also offered revealing data. After measuring the evolution of voting intention between September and October, Massa had only dropped 0.1 percent, whereas Milei and Bullrich had experienced sharper falls, but despite this percentage drop, the Juntos por el Cambio candidate is still the “favourite” in different run-off scenarios. 

There was also good news for Schiaretti, who over the last month became the candidate with the highest score in terms of positive image, according to the poll.

The study’s conclusions are based on a sample comprising 4,248 people surveyed between October 8 and 10, with wide and diverse criteria as to age, sex, education level, income bracket and geographic region.

As for the prospects looming in the first round, Massa was the candidate with the highest score in terms of voting intention, with 30.6 percent. As for the PASO primaries, he would have three extra points. Below the candidate for Unión por la Patria was Milei, who got 25.2 percent of positive answers. This would mean a considerable drop of four points compared to the primaries. Bullrich came in third, with 25 percent of the votes – three points lower than in the PASO primaries.

Schiaretti, the candidate for Hacemos por Nuestro País, got 11.8 percent (as against the scant 4.8 percent in a previous poll by the same consultancy firm). If that percentage materialises, the politician from Córdoba would almost treble the votes he obtained in the PASO primaries. As for Bregman, 3.9 percent said they would vote for the left-wing candidate. Of the respondents, 2.1 percent do not know who to vote for, while 0.7 percent would cast a blank vote and the same number would leave an invalid ballot.

“There are exactly 10 days until the general election and the RTVE journalistic data site calculated an average of all of the latest polls. On average, Javier Milei would come in first with 34.1 percent, followed by Sergio Massa with 27.3 percent and Patricia Bullrich with 25.7 percent,” explained journalist Jorge Fontevecchia on Thursday during his daily radio show.

“If this result is confirmed, Javier Milei and Sergio Massa would compete in the run-off. The survey average is completed with Juan Schiaretti’s 4.1 percent and Myriam Bregman’s 2.7 percent."



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