Voters hand Milei belated birthday present, post-mortem for Peronism overdue

Forced as he was by Argentina’s electoral calendar, President Javier Milei put his “chainsaw” austerity approach and deregulatory reform drive to the test on Sunday. The results indicate that voters are at the least content with what they see, despite the hardships they have faced. At the very least, the results tell us that they don’t want to go back to get to the future.

Milei, who turned 55 this week, received a belated birthday present in Sunday’s midterm elections. He went into the election off the back of a string of negative headlines and prior to the vote, analysts and experts had been talking up a vote share of around 30 percent on average, 35 percent perhaps. Argentina’s outspoken economist managed to outdo that, surpassing 40 percent nationwide of the vote for lower house deputies.

Of course, it’s not the first time Milei has overshot expectations. His entire political career has been this way. Doubted only to overperform. Sunday night had echoes of his famous run-off triumph in late 2023, when he blew his rival Sergio Massa out of the water and ejected the Peronists from power. Whatever electoral test is put in front of Milei, he seems to overcome it and end up celebrating it from the Hotel Libertador.

There’s no doubt, this result emboldens Milei. Improved representation in Congress will stop his opponents from blocking his reforms at every turn. He will have a stronger hand when it comes to negotiating with Argentina’s powerful provincial governors. Whatever ambitions Milei had for the remainder of his term in office will have been raised a little. 

Then there’s the United States government. It’s difficult to tell just how much the unprecedented support Milei has received from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent helped him at the ballot box, but before the vote, the US president had implied the financial aid would be conditional. It’s safe to say those conditions have been met and while we might not see Washington splashing cash to defend the peso again anytime soon, bilateral ties can only strengthen from here.

But as with so many elections nowadays, perhaps the focus tonight shouldn’t just be on Milei – it should be on Argentina’s opposition too. Milei managed to achieve this victory off the back of two years of punishing austerity, in midterm elections when ruling parties nearly always perform poorly. It’s an astounding feat. The stage was set for the Peronists to perform, but the looks on the faces of Fuerza Patria’s candidates on Sunday night said everything.

Since Milei took office, Peronism has been lacking a leader. The process of renewal, a necessity dating back to that 2023 run-off loss, has never really begun. The desire to cling to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner must be avoided – too many voters are avowed anti-CFK. Though she will undoubtedly present her own view on the debacle in the days to come, most likely posted via social media from her flat in Recoleta where she remains under house arrest, her message should not be given the priority it once did. 

Milei claimed in his victory speech that two-thirds of voters don’t want a return to Kirchnerism and by extension Peronism. That allegation deserves deeper investigation but the shadow of the ‘Anti-K’ vote hangs over its current ‘leader’ Axel Kicillof. The tack to polarisation, perhaps inspired by CFK herself, has clearly worked for Milei at the ballot box. Argentina’s most influential political force is failing to find answers. For the last two years it has been rudderless, projecting unity but delivering anything but. 

Peronism must undergo a serious post-mortem if it is to really seek renewal and be competitive in 2027. Time is on its side and a lot can happen in two years, but Milei is clearly already ahead – and far more out in front than anyone realised.