Argentina’s growing youth vote and the changing face of Buenos Aires Province

Almost four in 10 people of voting age in Argentina will be 35 or younger in 2027. That amounts to 14.43 million people nationwide and 5.25 million in Buenos Aires Province, the region that is home to the largest electorate. 

The figures come from a report by the Eunomia consultancy firm, which assessed the electoral weight of the age group and examined its educational and employment profiles, as well as how they access information.

The next election will see politicians facing a younger generation that accounts for a significant share of the potential electorate. In Buenos Aires Province, those under 35 will make up 37.8 percent of the population aged 16 and over. Nationally, the proportion will reach 39.1 percent.

The report puts a figure on an electorate that campaigns will have to compete for in 2027. But it is far from a homogeneous group, presenting a challenge for politicians. Across the 40 municipalities in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, people aged 16 to 35 account for 40.2 percent of the population aged 16 and over. That share ranges from 46.9 percent in the partido of Presidente Perón to 29.5 percent in Vicente López, a gap of 17.4 percentage points.

The group brings together very different life experiences. Among 18 to 25-year-olds surveyed by the Catholic University of Argentina (UCA) in a report, 39.6 percent have not completed secondary school. This does not necessarily mean they had dropped out, as the group also includes those who may still be studying. At the same time, 32.4 percent were either enrolled in or had completed higher education.

Employment conditions expose further differences. Just 14.2 percent of urban young people aged 18 to 25 had access to formal employment with full labour rights, according to the UCA report. The figure covers those in work, unemployed and economically inactive.

Those aged 16 to 24 are more likely to be navigating the transition from education into the labour market. For those between 25 and 35, other needs come to the fore: financial independence, establishing a career and taking on new responsibilities. Under a single electoral category, then, sit very different experiences and demands.

How young people get their information adds another dimension. According to figures from the INDEC national statistics bureau, 97.8 percent of people aged 18 to 29 use a mobile phone and 96.5 percent access the internet. The smartphone screen has become the main gateway to information, forcing politicians to rethink how they craft and deliver their messages.

Buenos Aires Province

While political debate in Buenos Aires Province and electoral contests tend to focus on immediate concerns such as crime, or national issues including incomes, employment and inflation, official projections point to a quieter transformation already under way. And in the coming years, it could reshape many of the demands that are currently absent from the political agenda.

Some of the changes – outlined in a recent report drawn up by the Buenos Aires Province government's Undersecretariat for Population Policy, produced with the National University of La Plata's (UNLP) Laboratory for Research into Socio-Urban Ties – are already becoming apparent in schools, the age structure of the population and the need to rethink infrastructure and care services.

The transformation begins at the bottom of the population pyramid. In 2001, Buenos Aires Province had 3.67 million people aged between zero and 14. By 2022, that figure had risen to 3.93 million. By 2040, however, the segment is projected to fall to 2.44 million. Over a period of almost four decades, the province could have around 1.2 million fewer children under 15 than it did in 2001.

The report draws on estimates from the Buenos Aires Province Directorate-General for Culture and Education showing that nursery and kindergarten enrolment (covering children aged three, four and five) stood at around 578,000 in 2024. That figure is expected to fall to 474,000 in 2027 and subsequently settle at around 450,000.

But while the base of the population pyramid is shrinking, its upper reaches are expanding. In 2001, the province had around 16,000 people aged 90 or over. By 2022, the figure had reached 101,088. By 2040, it is projected to stand at 165,916. The number of Buenos Aires Province residents aged 90 and over will therefore be more than nine times higher than in 2001.

The result is a province with fewer children and more older people. The report itself warns that an ageing population will increase the dependency ratio and force policymakers to consider new balances between education, healthcare, social security and employment. 

The question, then, is not necessarily how much state intervention there will be, but what kind of state will be needed: which services it must sustain, where it will have to allocate more resources and how it should reorganise its priorities.

The shift also opens up a debate about employment and social security. If the proportion of older people rises and the balance between the working-age and dependent populations changes, employment, productivity and the long-term sustainability of the pension system will all become part of the same conversation.

The province gearing up in the immediate future to compete for the youth vote is also a province that is ageing. Demographic change does not determine how one generation will vote, but it does point to new needs that the state will have to address.