News of midterms

Begin the begin

Today 06:28 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is paradoxically sidelined and occupying centre stage at the same time. With her exclusion from any electoral candidacy, the campaign effectively starts again.

by Michael Soltys

ELECTIONS 2025: BUENOS AIRES CITY

City elections: Initial results show La Libertad Avanza surge in capital

18-05-2025 19:48 with 90% of polling stations reporting, La Libertad Avanza's slate headed by Manuel Adorni has 30% of the vote, trailed by Peronist Leandro Santoro on 27% and Silvia Lospennato of PRO on 15.9%.

ELECTIONS 2025: BUENOS AIRES CITY

Milei, Macri exchange insults as fake AI video angers PRO

18-05-2025 18:16 Mauricio Macri and Silvia Lospennato point finger at La Libertad Avanza and its online militants for AI video; Low-quality clip shared by libertarian social media accounts falsely claims ex-president pulled PRO candidate, endorsed Manuel Adorni in City elections.

ELECTIONS 2025

San Luis: Poggi’s ruling coalition defeats Rodríguez Saá’s Peronists

12-05-2025 18:35 Ahora San Luis front, led by Governor Claudio Poggi, defeats Peronist coalition of former provincial governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá. With 80% of votes counted, the ruling coalition has 46.8%, comfortably ahead of Frente Justicialista.

ELECTIONS 2025

Sáenz tightens grip on Salta, Milei’s party pulls off upset in capital

11-05-2025 22:38 Governor’s ruling alliance sweeps vote for legislature, winning 31 of 42 seats; President Javier Milei hails win in provincial capital as La Libertad Avanza advances in north.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Fernández de Kirchner’s present points to Milei’s future

10-05-2025 07:55 Like Milei today, Fernández de Kirchner and Macri once believed their power was unlimited and their future bright. The way they engaged with their adversaries only came back later to haunt them.

by Marcelo J. García

POLITICS & COMMUNICATION

Milei: Hate, peace, Popes and social media

10-05-2025 07:21 The Milei administration built its strength on synthetic power and effectively navigated the first part of the presidency. With the campaign fully underway, La Libertad Avanza will once again rely on their not-so-secret weapon.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ELECTIONS 2025: BUENOS AIRES CITY

City polls: Santoro in lead, Adorni and Lospennato battle for second

07-05-2025 15:11 New polling by Tendencias and Circuitos consultancy firms give Es Ahora Buenos Aires candidate an advantage of at least six points over La Libertad Avanza, PRO hopefuls.

Editorial

Will April showers bring May flowers?

03-05-2025 07:45 Critics of the exit from the ‘cepo’ currency and capital controls argue that it opens the door to speculative peso-dollar shuffles. Whether or not they are right will go much further towards defining the outcome of the October midterms than any cultural battles.

ELECTIONS 2025: BUENOS AIRES CITY

Fragmented field means little debate in City debate

30-04-2025 15:54 Seventeen candidates standing in Buenos Aires City Legislature elections on May 18; Debate delivers insults and crossed words, but little in the way of policy.

POLITICS: MIDTERMS 2025

Divided right bolsters Peronism in City as Karina’s strategy put to test

28-04-2025 14:24 Polling firms put the Peronist ticket led by Leandro Santoro ahead in Buenos Aires City. Battle between Manuel Adorni and Silvia Lospennato will set tone for electoral year.

by Giselle Leclercq

POLITICS & ECONOMY – ANALYSIS

Milei dreams of re-election – with IMF's help

19-04-2025 06:00 Whether signing an IMF deal represents a “day of liberation” or one of mourning, it lifts a cloud of uncertainty and allows the political ecosystem to focus on upcoming elections.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Analysing Argentina

Milei and the bicycle temptation

19-04-2025 06:00 The Milei government is confident it can make it to the midterm elections in October without major volatility. But this relative calm — won by force of debt — should not obscure the storm that was brewing before the cash injection.

by Marcelo J. García

Campaign comments

First day of the rest of the year

19-04-2025 06:00 Economists have hailed the exit from the cepo as a milestone but this columnist hesitates to consider it an electoral game-changer – there is both too much and too little time for that.

by Michael Soltys

Editorial

Floating on air?

19-04-2025 06:00 Milei might echo Alfonsín by proclaiming: “Happy Easter, the dollar is in order” but early days – a more total exit from currency and capital controls by Macri in in late 2015 was even smoother, without ensuring him a happy ending.

Politics: Elections 2025

First regional ballot test for Milei in Santa Fe Province

13-04-2025 09:09 Sunday's election in third-most-populous province of 2.8 million voters will pick delegates to a convention set to reform the regional constitutional assembly.

Campaign comments

And so it begins

12-04-2025 05:22 This year’s midterm voting begins tomorrow in the major province of Santa Fe with the constituent assembly elections.

by Michael Soltys

POLITICS – ANALYSIS

Axel advances elections, disobeying CFK – has a new Peronist leader been born?

09-04-2025 14:42 As in any risky play, the decision has an effect of uncertainty and could expose the governor to undesired consequences.

ELECTIONS 2025

Kicillof defies Fernández de Kirchner, decouples provincial election

09-04-2025 14:31 Partido Justicialista chair Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wanted Buenos Aires Province governor to schedule region’s elections for the same date as the national vote, but Axel Kicillof decides to break.

BEYOND THE HEADLINES

Midterms North and South

05-04-2025 06:48 Midterm results have tended to be adverse in both the United States and Argentina, from a government standpoint. In the former, a mere two of those 10 contests have gone the way of the presidential party – in the latter, the margin is narrower.

by Michael Soltys

elections 2025

City midterms: Tensions on right, but PRO vows clean fight

04-04-2025 14:52 Presidential Spokesperson Manuel Adorni, who will run for the City legislature this May, promises to take up his seat if elected.

POLITICS: MIDTERMS 2025

Who’s who: La Libertad Avanza’s electoral list for Buenos Aires City

28-03-2025 11:42 Manuel Adorni, Javier Milei’s presidential spokesperson, will be the “frontman” of the ruling party’s electoral slate for the Buenos Aires City legislature.

MIDTERMS 2025

Midterms latest: Adorni set to run for La Libertad Avanza in City

27-03-2025 21:13 President Javier Milei’s top spokesperson will lay down his microphone to run for the ruling La Libertad Avanza party in Buenos Aires City.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Autumn is coming for Javier Milei

22-03-2025 07:41 Last week, we discussed how an electoral agreement with the governor of Chaco signalled a possible pattern. This week, Chaco Governor Leandro Zdero received a 120-billion-peso transfer from the federal government. Just don’t tell the IMF.

by Marcelo J. García

POLITICS – ANALYSIS

Political hegemony turning to pathetic circus

22-03-2025 07:14 Market jitters have pushed the government into a defensive posture, in which Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo appears to have involuntarily flamed the fans of devaluation.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Editorial

Forever Autumn?

22-03-2025 07:11 There is already too much polarisation in politics at large – instead of extremes clashing, there is a need to meet in the middle for a serious debate about a complex issue.

POLITICS

No more JxC, PRO dispute – Electoral alliances in City confirmed

20-03-2025 23:48 City alliance deadline closes, Juntos por el Cambio no more, PRO goes it alone, also without Rodríguez Larreta; Leandro Santoro heads Peronists; Controversy over ‘Unión Porteña Libertaria’ slate.

POLITICS

Rodríguez Larreta confirms midterms run after PRO expulsion talk

18-03-2025 21:58 Former Buenos Aires City mayor confirms run in May 18 City midterms; He will likely do so under a new banner – a reaction to reported move by PRO members to expel him.

by James Grainger

POLITICS

Chaco and Milei’s electoral strategy for October

15-03-2025 07:36 Chaco shows that Milei is willing to seal alliances with the local political establishment — a.k.a. “the caste” — as it best suits them. And the Casa Rosada has leverage in this negotiation with the governors: cash.

by Marcelo J. García

BEYOND THE HEADLINES

The Ides of March

15-03-2025 07:21 While conspiracy theories are wildly fashionable in today’s world, accidents can also happen.

by Michael Soltys

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s long honeymoon is over, what happens next?

22-02-2025 06:32 For the first time since December 2023, Milei and his people lost control of the narrative … more than ever, Milei now relies on the success of his economic programme.

by Marcelo J. García

Editorial

La $Libra no avanza

22-02-2025 06:05 There can be no excuse for a President turning into an influencer for such a risky venture. A trained economist should always check the facts before reaching conclusions.

Analysing Argentina

Can Kicillof break the spell?

08-02-2025 06:11 If the current political trajectory stands, Kicillof would face an uphill battle … but Argentina has shown in recent years that "impossible" is not in the local political dictionary.

by Marcelo J. García

CONGRESS & POLITICS

Congress backs Milei’s bid to suspend primary vote

07-02-2025 10:18 Lower house votes to suspend a primary election for this year’s midterm vote.

CONGRESS & POLITICS

Government steers PASO suspension through Chamber of Deputies

06-02-2025 21:44 Milei administration wins support to approve a bill that would eliminate PASO primaries for this year’s elections.

Analysing Argentina

Macri is fighting for his life – he will lose

01-02-2025 08:48 Mauricio Macri is making a desperate attempt to keep his political structure alive — and under his wing.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s learning curve

25-01-2025 06:48 Milei’s learning curve should take note from his predecessors: too much orthodoxy or unorthodoxy leads to trouble.

by Marcelo J. García

POLITICS

Karina Milei fancies midterms clash against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

15-01-2025 15:29 Rumour mill cranks into overdrive as talk of midterms showdown between president’s sister and former head of state in Buenos Aires Province ramps up; La Libertad Avanza Senator Sebastián Pareja and Lower House Speaker Martín Menem among those pushing for a Karina candidacy.

Editorial

Flotsam and jetsam not always adrift

11-01-2025 06:39 While so much could happen in the country and the world in the next nine months, everything now points to the midterms going Milei’s way, even if it will be a relative victory.

POLITICS

Macri tells Milei he’s ready to team up for midterms

09-01-2025 21:13 Former president uses social media to respond to head of state’s flirting and tells him PRO is “ready to form a work team with whoever you offer.”

Analysing Argentina

May you live in happy times, Mr President

04-01-2025 07:54 Much of this success hinges on the Pax at the exchange rate market. Prices in Argentina dance to the tune of one price: that of the US dollar.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Year one: Milei surpassed expectations, but now faces high ones

07-12-2024 06:51 The question of whether Milei will be an anecdote or a new force that defines an era will largely begin to be answered in 2025. First and foremost, it will depend on the economy, and second — but by no means less important — on the midterm elections in October.

by Marcelo J. García

POLLING – ANALYSIS

Milei on alert over Karina’s performance in polls

16-10-2024 14:32 Argentina’s government was shocked by numbers that have emerged from surveys conducted in Buenos Aires Province showing many voters would not even consider voting for President Javier Milei’s sister.

by Ramón Indart