Javier Milei’s foreign policy is bracingly straightforward. He very much wants Argentina to make common cause with the United States in the cold war it is waging against China. Though Milei has stopped short of breaking ties with the Communist behemoth, as he threatened to do when on the campaign trail, he makes no secret of the contempt he feels for its current rulers who, among other things he dislikes, try to make the markets obey their politically-inspired dictates.
For understandable reasons, Milei’s approach worries the many who recognise that, despite being under the thumb of a ruthless dictatorship which, if given the chance, would dispatch them all to a re-education camp in the back of beyond, China is a great commercial power it would be unwise to tangle with. Nonetheless, in strategic terms, Milei may have got his priorities right. Not that long ago, many took it for granted that China, with its billion plus hard-working inhabitants and a single-minded leadership that got things done, would soon overtake the United States to become the world's top nation, but there are plenty of good reasons to think they were mistaken.
These days the United States may not look much like the “shining city on a hill” the late Ronald Reagan, channelling a 17th century preacher, optimistically referred to in 1989 when bidding farewell to the presidency. However, despite the astonishing mediocrity of its political leaders and the depressing probability that the upcoming presidential election will be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the US is still in far better shape than China, let alone hypothetical rivals such as the European Union whose leaders fear that, without the US protecting them from foreign foes, they will be unable to handle an increasingly bellicose Russia.
For the many who, as well as believing that the “American century” was certain to be followed by a Chinese one so we should all set about brushing up our Mandarin, welcomed the prospect because they imagined they would benefit from it, the last few months have been sobering. Chinese statistics have never been that trustworthy – in top-down authoritarian countries local potentates and their bureaucratic hirelings find it expedient to exaggerate their own achievements and tell their bosses what they want to hear – but those that have officially been made available in recent weeks paint an alarming picture.
The Chinese economy is clearly faltering. This greatly worries the regime, whose legitimacy depends largely on its alleged ability to make gross national product grow at a breakneck pace and let people become richer. When signs of widespread discontent start appearing, nervous autocrats, such as general and de facto president Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri when he was faced with a trade-union offensive, often find it hard to resist the temptation to whip up nationalistic passions by embarking on military adventures, so it is not that surprising that of late president Xi Jinping has kept insisting that the time has come to put an end to the independence of Taiwan.
Like Vladimir Putin with regards to Ukraine, Xi and many of his compatriots are evidently obsessed with what they see as the misbehaviour of a breakaway province whose inhabitants refuse to grovel before them. In their case, the resentment they feel is made stronger by the knowledge that the Taiwanese have managed their economy far better than the communists have theirs. Indeed, if China’s per capita income were the same as Taiwan’s, its economy would already be by far the biggest on the planet, dwarfing that of the United States or the European Union. For a while, that goal, which Xi thought would usher in “the Chinese century” and the Middle Kingdom, surrounded by obedient vassal states, would once again take charge of terrestrial affairs, seemed to be within his reach, but it now looks illusory.
China’s principal problem is its steeply falling birth rate. Like its neighbours Japan and South Korea, as well as Russia, Spain, Italy, Germany and many other European countries, it is in a death spiral. As well as shrinking fast, the population is living longer, which, it is said, means that by 2035 the state pension scheme will have run out of money because there will be almost as many oldsters as people of working age; after that, the situation is predicted to get increasingly worse. This will certainly be the case if, as some specialists say, China is on the same path as South Korea where last year there were “0.84” births per woman when at least “2.1” are needed for long-term survival – many demographers say the decline has already become irreversible.
As if this were not enough, the traditional Chinese preference for male children who presumably can be relied upon to look after their elderly parents means there are now millions of young men who will never be able to find a bride. Just what effects this will have is hard to say: will it make China more warlike or lead to an unmanageable crime wave? Opinions are divided, but whatever happens, it is unlikely to be pretty.
According to well-informed visitors, even in big and relatively prosperous coastal cities such as Shanghai living conditions for most are grim by Western standards, and out in the countryside where most Chinese remain, they are much worse. This, along with a rise in unemployment among the educated young who cannot find the jobs they think they deserve and the demographic nightmare, is encouraging those who think that China could soon experience an upheaval similar to those that, in the past, put an end to what seemed a well-entrenched dynasty and, after a period of turmoil, made possible the rise of another.
Up to now the Chinese dictatorship, legitimised by high-speed economic growth which gave hundreds of millions of people a taste of what it is like to belong to the middle class, has enjoyed what for many centuries has been called “the mandate of heaven,” the right to rule of those who bestow benefits on the general population, but nothing in this world is forever. Unless Xi and his men – most members of the Chinese elite are staunchly male – get things right, they could share the fate of so many of their predecessors who, to their bewilderment, were suddenly swept aside, without the United States or any other hostile power having to lift a finger to send them on their way.
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