Dirty politics in the Province and the risk of violence

The electoral season is proving particularly messy since Javier Milei’s libertarian coalition sparked the implosion and successive fragmentation of Argentina’s dysfunctional political system. To many, the economic problem with Argentina isn’t some sort of weird fixation Argentines have with the US dollar, rather, it is political disharmony that eventually leads to extreme swings of the ideological and practical pendulum. Continuing in the logical path of this hypothesis, the decision taken by Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof to separate the local election, scheduled for September 7, from the national midterms to be held on October 26, is injecting the system with even more turbulence and uncertainty than usual. The “mother of all battles,” as the Province’s election is generally named, will consist of two rounds, where La Libertad Avanza will seek to dethrone Peronism in its historical bastion at a moment of particular fragility given the faceoff between Kicillof and his former protégé, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Kicillof is fighting a two-front war, seeking to fend off Máximo Kirchner’s La Cámpora political organization, while at the same time defending their home turf from the LLA-PRO coalition that resulted from the defeat of the Macris in Buenos Aires City. While all of that is part of the expected political battle, certain suspicious and ominous rumblings within the ranks of the Buenos Aires Provincial Police deserve further scrutiny.

Former sheriff Maximiliano Bondarenko ultimately emerged as the libertarian candidate in the all-important third electoral section that Cristina was supposed to “defend” before the Supreme Court banned her from running by confirming her guilty sentence in the “Vialidad” public works corruption scandal. With a strong Peronist skew, the third electoral section is key to the battle for dominance of the province, consisting of more than five million voters spread throughout 19 municipalities toward the South and West of the “conurbano” or ring of districts encircling Buenos Aires City. La Matanza, the most densely populated district in the third section, is also amongst the poorest, with four in 10 homes lacking in sewage while roughly half don’t have access to natural gas needed to cook and generate heat. According to fact-checking nonprofit Chequeado, La Matanza has the highest murder rate in the Province, and high rates of structural poverty meaning it would take decades of economic growth to revert such levels of decrepitude.

This is the context in which Bondarenko is representing President Javier Milei with the explicit support of Presidential Chief of Staff, First Lady and his sister, Karina Milei. He will be trying to snatch a difficult election from Verónica Magario, lieutenant-governor representing the Fuerza Patria Peronist label. Bondarenko had been elected councillor for PRO in 2017 and later had a stint in the UCR Radical alongside Facundo Manes. This week he was accused by the Kicillof administration of leading a parallel command structure within the provincial police force—which counts some 90,000 officers—alongside 24 high-ranking active duty cops, who were immediately discharged. According to Province Security Minister Javier Alonso, internal affairs received an anonymous tip that the group supposedly led by Bondarenko was operating politically for the libertarian candidate and was planning a purge which would grant them control of the force, together with a series of reforms.

“These actions constitute a grave violation of the Police Charter, seeking to challenge the institutional command structure,” Alonso said in an interview on Modo Fontevecchia, while suggesting Bondarenko had been involved in shady dealings. “In just eight years he earned the rank of someone with a 30-year career in the force,” he said, noting Bondarenko had received six promotions in just his first eight years as a cop.

The Casa Rosada quickly responded, with Security Minister Patricia Bullrich calling Governor Kicillof “worthless,” accusing him of political persecution. She said the Kicillof administration was in favour of criminals at the expense of the security forces, reinforcing the idea that the Province is lawless and insecurity rising. Indeed, the political strategy to confront with Peronists in the “conurbano” is to highlight the dire social situation of a district historically governed by that political force. Insecurity should be their Achilles’ heel, which is why a former sheriff campaigning on a hard-line stance towards crime seems ideal. That’s what Sebastián Pareja, Karina Milei’s handler in the Province, is aiming at. The Kicillof administration will try to respond blaming the economic crisis created by Milei’s policies, which have lowered inflation but severely hit small and medium-sized companies, many of which closed up shop, increasing unemployment. Wages have been severely deteriorated, and the “conurbano” is where the effects are most explicit.

Yet, this political battle drags in the security forces in a particularly sensible geography, riddled with organized crime, drug-dealing and deeply affected by poverty and economic stagnation. What level of political violence can be expected of this standoff? Will there be suspicious deaths? Crime waves? Looting? Or is it just a scare tactic? It will be a long walk until the election.

At the same time, the political friction has reached the governing coalition. Once deemed untouchable, the controversial political strategist, Santiago Caputo, appears to have fallen from grace. To play with the metaphor, he flew too close to the sun, leveraging Milei’s blessing to take operational control of key areas of the administration, including the SIDE spy agency and the Justice Ministry, among others. There’s been talk of suspicious business dealings under his wing, and the explosion of the suitcases scandal in Aeroparque airport, where a stewardess-cum-conservative political organizer was found with 10 pieces of undeclared luggage (Laura Belén Arrieta). Leonardo Scatturice, a close associate of Caputo who has become the key to the Donald Trump White House for the libertarians, has been named, forcing the President to come out in his defence. But Caputo came out on the losing end, having been absolutely relegated in the political organisation in the Province after attempting to dispute power with none other than Karina. His digital “Troll army” was seen licking its wounds after failing to secure spots on the candidate lists which were populated by Pareja with characters who reeked too much of the “caste.”

The internal battle within LLA is even more brutal than their faceoff with Peronism. Caputo, a member of the “iron triangle” together with the Milei siblings, pushed for a conflicting electoral strategy, clashing with Karina’s delegated strategist, Chamber of Deputies Speaker Martín Menem, aide Eduardo “Lule” Menem, and Pareja. Karina obviously received the full backing of her brother, particularly after a strong showing in Buenos Aires City legislative elections, where they beat the Macris on their home turf. She then closed the deal to essentially absorb PRO in the Province, at least going into the local vote. The all-powerful Caputo is said to have been excluded from the highest-level strategy meetings, while his digital “trolls” lambast Pareja and post cryptic messages on social media. He still wields incredible power but Karina is making him taste his defeat.

The “mother of all battles” has proven to be a dirty one, as should have been expected. Not even the tone-deaf comments of Trump’s designated Ambassador to Argentina, Peter Lamelas, seem to have fully shifted the focus of the agenda. Lamelas had his designation hearing where he essentially admitted his intention to fully intervene in Argentina’s internal affairs, from provincial dealings for natural resources and rare earths specifically, to the judiciary and the situation of Cristina Kirchner. Probably a consequence of political inexperience, Lamelas’ comments feed fodder to the Kirchnerist bases which see the imperial hand of the US behind the supposed ban on their leader. It may end up working in their favour.

The showdown in the Province promises to be epic, and not in a good way.