Milei cheers as INDEC says Argentina’s economy grew 4.4% in 2025

President Javier Milei mocked his critics on Friday as the INDEC national statistics bureau reported that economic activity in Argentina expanded by 4.4 percent in 2025.

The year-on-year increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 was driven by rises in private consumption (7.9 percent), public consumption (0.2 percent), exports (7.6 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (16.4 percent), INDEC reported.

Milei hailed the figure as proof his economic policies are working. In a post on social media, he slammed the “narrative” against his government, attacking crooked “business cronies” and “corrupt politicians” in a mocking tone. “Data first!” wrote the head of state.

Among the top-performing sectors posting growth last year were financial intermediation (24.7 percent year-on-year), mining and quarrying (8.0 percent) and hotels and restaurants (7.4 percent). At the other end of the scale, fishing contracted a crushing 15.2 percent year-on-year.

“Private consumption was the main component of demand, accounting for 70 percent of GDP, followed by gross fixed capital formation (16.0 percent of GDP), exports (15.6 percent of GDP) and public consumption (14.9 percent of GDP),” the statistics agency said in its report.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo noted that in the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP rose 0.6 percent in seasonally adjusted terms compared to the previous quarter and 2.1 percent year-on-year. In a post on social media, he observed that “in constant prices, it reached a historic high in 2025, standing 1.1 percent above the 2022 average (the previous peak).”

In quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted terms, exports (up five percent) and private consumption (up 1.7 percent) increased in the fourth quarter. Public consumption (down 1.0 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (down 2.8 percent) declined.

The Centro de Estudios Políticos y Económicos (CEPEC) economic think tank said “the underlying reading is clear: the economy is growing,” though it noted it lies on “fragile foundations.”

“Momentum depends largely on the external sector, investment is beginning to show signs of weakness, and not all sectors are keeping pace,” warned the think tank.

“If this trend continues, the start of 2026 could show a scenario of slower growth,” it added.

According to the Central Bank’s most recent Market Expectations Survey (REM), analysts forecast GDP growth of one percent in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.9 percent in the second.

In the Budget Bill, the government projects annual economic growth of five percent. “For 2026, participants in the REM expect, on average, a level of real GDP 3.4 percent higher than the 2025 average (+0.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey),” the monetary authority said.

According to estimates by consultancy Orlando Ferreres & Asociados, economic activity in January 2026 fell one percent year-on-year but rose 0.4 percent month-on-month.

In a second report issued Friday, INDEC said that supermarket sales – a key indicator for consumption – had fallen 1.5 percent from the previous month in January, dropping 1.2 percent year-on-year.

– TIMES/NA/PERFIL