From words to deeds

Next weekend or shortly thereafter President Javier Milei will be heading up to New York City to address the annual United Nations General Assembly, which will be an acid test as to how seriously he takes the multilateral route to Malvinas sovereignty as against the unilateral quasi-embargo on which he has now embarked. It might be recalled that he chucked out his first Foreign Minister Diana Mondino for joining most of the planet in a UN vote to protest the United States embargo against Cuba, a decision motivated not by any Communist sympathies but by an anxiety to keep the non-aligned world on board Malvinas sovereignty claims in line with Argentina’s diplomatic traditions. Milei would seem to see US rather than UN as the shortcut to Malvinas recovery in the person of Donald Trump but whatever his approach later this month, he is unlikely to forget to mention the disputed islands (like Cristina Fernández de Kirchner did when addressing the General Assembly in 2015).

Early days to gauge the efficacy of the sanctions against companies signing contracts with the Falklands Islands Government “usurpers.” Some of the biggest names among the global oil majors have assured that they will have neither truck nor trade with the Anglo-Israeli consortium behind the Sea Lion project exploring oil north of the islands but the lines within the business world are not always so clearcut – there are wheels within wheels. Cases of overlap between Sea Lion and Vaca Muerta shale have already been detected within their intricate global supply chains and more will surely follow, especially if the financing is explored. Subordinating free-market purism to nationalism will carry its reputational costs, creating doubts about Milei’s sincerity since punishing companies in the name of the Argentine state hardly qualifies as anarcho-capitalism – even if disruptive chauvinism is what his idol Trump is all about.

Trump’s latest obsession is to pressure NATO allies into increased defence spending, apart from military assistance against Iran, and indeed British resistance to Washington’s squeeze and the ensuing umbrage is the real origin of Milei’s initiative, which is based on a peeved US president’s vague hints about shifting support for Argentine sovereignty claims. Yet increased defence spending in the form of renewing discontinued work on the Tierra del Fuego naval base also forms part of Milei’s Malvinas drive and this could be an acid test for the fiscal surplus lying at the core of the libertarian administration’s economic policies. Apart from the reputational costs of introducing non-economic criteria into economic policy, maintenance of the fiscal surplus will be a key test of Milei’s credibility abroad.

Among the various spanners in the works within the business community, probably the most interesting is Eduardo Elsztain, a close friend of Milei with shares in the Falkland Islands Company. This stake is not the product of negligence or greed but rather projecting an idea of constructive engagement instead of hostility and sanctions. This vision does not see the Kelpers as the problem but as part of the solution – not an “implanted population” but the island inhabitants stretching back several generations whose self-determination need not be a lost cause when recalling the situation half a century ago when talk of the “leaseback” of an archipelago increasingly intertwined with the mainland was in the air.  A multiplication of mainland links creating interdependence could do the trick here even more than the entry of Argentine capital into the island economy.

Discussing the efficacy of the sanctions or the wisdom of weaponising Vaca Muerta misses the main point of this move – to harness the patriotic wave arising out of the World Cup in order to clinch Milei’s re-election. Yet the political dividends may be an illusion, as nebulous as Malvinas Argentinas in current reality. Elections are won by winning debates but when there is no debate, there are no winners and Malvinas sovereignty is beyond any debate in Argentina. As a plank in an election platform, the “sacred cause” might therefore be of little more use than motherhood or apple pie.

It would be a different story if Milei actually recovers the islands although an initiative based on Trump’s word is writing in sand. The indispensable next step would be to bring London to the negotiating table and here Milei’s UN General Assembly appearance later this month could be important – to show the world that he aims to establish Malvinas sovereignty by bilateral negotiation rather than unilateral coercion.