Bolsonaro’s family dynasty creaks under pressure of Brazil coup trial

Eduardo Bolsonaro wanted a win, and when US President Donald Trump in July threatened to hit Brazil with 50 percent tariffs, he believed he had one.

Four months earlier, the 41-year-old had abandoned his congressional seat in Brazil to move to the United States in a bid to persuade the White House to help his father, Jair Bolsonaro – the nation’s former leader who is on trial for an alleged coup attempt.

When Trump demanded that Brazil’s Supreme Court put a stop to the trial if the country wanted to avoid the tariffs, it seemed like the younger Bolsonaro had succeeded in his mission. But he was frustrated that his dad didn’t share his enthusiasm in the moment.

“The most powerful man in the world is on your side,” he told his father, according to text messages released by the Supreme Court this week. “If the main beneficiary can’t even post a soft tweet, we’re screwed.”

When Jair Bolsonaro later described his son as “immature,” Eduardo exploded. “Go f— yourself, you ungrateful motherf——,” he wrote in one of the messages, which Federal Police compiled as part of another probe. “You’re my biggest obstacle in trying to help you,” he said in another.

The messages lay bare the fractious divisions in the Bolsonaro family. Less than a decade ago, the patriarch’s meteoric rise to Brazil’s Presidency created a modern political dynasty with the potential to reshape the country for generations. But now, the once-united clan is creaking under pressure.

While Eduardo wanted his father to celebrate the tariff threat, his elder brother Flavio has expressed concern about the impact of US levies on Brazil. 

The tariff threat has also given President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a shot in the arm, allowing the leftist to seize a nationalistic mantle and paint himself as a defender of Brazil. His once-sagging approval ratings are rising, and he now leads all potential challengers in early polls.

“That son of yours, Eduardo, is a jerk,” Silas Malafaia, an evangelical pastor with close ties to the family and the country’s right-wing movement, said in a message to Bolsonaro at the height of the tariff tensions in July, according to the police documents. He “just handed Lula and the left a nationalist narrative. And at the same time he’s screwing you over.”

A singular goal

It’s a relatively quick fall from grace for the family, which reached its zenith in 2018. The elder Bolsonaro had won the top job, Flavio cruised into the Senate and Eduardo returned to the lower house with a record vote count.

Legal troubles started to pile up during Bolsonaro’s controversial four-year government – and his spreading of falsehoods about Brazil’s electronic voting system led to a ban from holding public office that has rendered him ineligible to run next year.

But it was his alleged attempt to remain in power after narrowly losing the 2022 vote to leftist archrival Lula that has become his biggest problem. A week after Lula took office, Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in the capital while demanding a military intervention, an episode akin to the January 6, 2021 attacks on the US Capitol.

As an investigation into the events encroached on the former president, the Bolsonaros began operating toward a singular goal: Winning amnesty for their father, in hopes of keeping him out of jail and allowing him to wage a rematch against Lula next year.

But Eduardo and his older brother have also at times struggled to get on the same page. In July, Flavio quickly deleted a social media post that called on Trump to suspend the tariffs in favour of sanctions on Brazilian officials. Later, he took down another that included video of his father’s remarks to supporters in Rio de Janeiro in an attempt to avoid provoking Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who’d accused Bolsonaro of violating judicial orders.

In a written response, Eduardo said deleting the post amounted to giving into the “whims” of Moraes, the crusading judge who is now under sanctions from the Trump administration, and who has ordered Bolsonaro into house arrest.

A favorite of the more radical elements of Bolsonaro’s base, Eduardo has fostered strong relations with Trump allies and other global right-wing figures. He has openly acknowledged interest in running for president if Bolsonaro asks. 

“I’ve already made myself available, and I remain open to it,” he told Bloomberg News. “If it’s God’s will, I will walk that path.”

Flavio, by contrast, is known as the family’s shrewd operator, and said in an interview that he’s fully focused on his father’s candidacy. Still, he has worked to strengthen ties with centrist party leaders in Brasília, a person close to him said. 

He’s also sought to build bridges to investors, according to the person, at a time when many in market circles are concerned that putting another Bolsonaro on the ballot will boost Lula’s re-election odds. 

Michelle Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has moulded herself into a more outwardly political figure, staging events aimed at women to the family’s cause. But despite nearly two decades with Bolsonaro, she’s never fully gained the family’s political trust, according to people with knowledge of the matter. 

Unlike her stepsons, the former first lady rarely speaks to press and declined an interview request.

Altered future

The Bolsonaro family’s inability to mount a coherent and forward-thinking defence strategy is not only putting the family’s political future at risk. It has also left the coalition of centre-right parties in their orbit in disarray, and could soon cost Brazil’s conservative forces a 2026 presidential election that has largely been considered theirs to lose.

Allies have grown frustrated amid signs that Bolsonaro plans to insist on his candidacy until the final possible moment, then pass the baton to one of his sons. 

Leaders of parties aligned with the family – along with many investors and business elite – have pushed him to support an alternative like São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, who would need Bolsonaro’s blessing at a much earlier stage in the race to have a viable chance against Lula.

Whatever Bolsonaro ultimately decides, the US pressure campaign has clearly altered the future of Bolsonaro clan.

The former president is currently under house arrest, and is again facing the risk of pretrial detention from Moraes, who this week demanded an explanation from Bolsonaro after Federal Police said that he had weighed asking Argentina’s Javier Milei for asylum.

Bolsonaro’s legal team told the court Friday night that an unsigned draft letter requesting asylum found on his phone did not prove he intended to flee, and that he is not a flight risk. They also denied he had violated previous court orders and asked Moraes to reconsider his house arrest.

Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing in the coup trial and accused the court of politically persecuting him, claims his defence team reiterated. 

Eduardo’s political career appears to have taken a hit. Federal authorities this week recommended that he and his father face charges for obstructing justice in relation to the coup trial, and he’s unlikely to return home any time soon, four people with knowledge of the situation said. 

Eduardo denounced the police probe, saying it was “not about justice” but “political damage” against the Bolsonaros.

Few around the family are convinced Michelle will win the support of her husband, who has pushed her toward a Senate race and previously joked that she could only run for president if she committed to name him chief of staff.

That has left Flavio as the de facto favorite if the notoriously unpredictable Bolsonaro indeed backs a family member.

The tariff fight has also given Lula a shot in the arm, allowing the leftist to seize a nationalistic mantle and paint himself as a defender of Brazil.

“Trump’s Bolsonaro-related demands on Brazil have been more curse than blessing for the clan,” said Bloomberg Economics analyst Jimena Zuniga. “They are unlikely to be pivotal for Bolsonaro’s legal destiny, and they have backfired politically big time, as most Brazilians see Bolsonaro and his family focused on saving their own necks as opposed to defending their country’s interests.”