Milei wins big in Buenos Aires City vote, dethroning Macri

Javier Milei struck at the heart of his former ally’s biggest bastion of support and came out victorious in Buenos Aires City, cementing his hold on Argentina’s political right months before pivotal midterm elections.

The libertarian leader’s party defeated Mauricio Macri’s PRO bloc Sunday in a Buenos Aires City Hall election, weakening the former president in a stronghold his party has governed uninterrupted for the past two decades. 

Milei’s top candidate, chief spokesman Manuel Adorni, won the vote in a landslide over Macri’s choice to lead the ticket, Silvia Lospennato, in a race seen as a bellwether for national midterm elections in October.

Adorni received 30.1 percent of votes, towering over Lospennato’s 15.9 percent that placed her party in third, according to official results with over 98 percent of ballots counted.

“The PRO’s third-place finish confirms that the party can no longer lay claim to being Argentina’s agent of change,” said Joaquín Bagues, Managing Director at Buenos Aires-based brokerage Grit Capital Group.

The battle between Milei and Macri on the right also led to a resurgence for Argentina’s more unified left wing movement represented by Peronist candidate Leandro Santoro, who finished in second with 27.4 percent of votes. The percentages will determine how many candidates from their party tickets accompany the top contenders into City Hall this December.

The vote to replace half of Buenos Aires’ 60 City legislators – a local election where not even majorities or the mayor’s seat are in play – became polarised by Milei and Macri, driving a wedge between the right-leaning electorate to give way to an unusually good turnout by the Peronists.

“They put their best players in because they know they can’t lose,” said pollster Mariel Fornoni, whose firm Management & Fit had forecast Santoro first. “Evidently this dispute is between Macri and Milei’s parties.”

While Macri had long been lobbying for a united electoral front, Milei chose to go solo as a way to flex his popularity ahead of the much more important vote down the line. To investors, the best case would see Milei opt for unity next time in October to beat back Peronism in Congress, a negotiation that analysts say could see congressional lawmakers switching sides to Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party.

“This result positions La Libertad Avanza to commence negotiating from a position of strength with political talents that have been left without a future in their own collapsing parties,” added Bagues from Grit Capital.

‘Balance of power’

Macri has been crucial to Milei’s success since his landslide 2023 run-off election. Right after Milei lost the first round of voting to his Peronist contender, it was Macri who organised a dinner at his house so that his candidate, Patricia Bullrich, and Milei could hug – and mobilise her electorate to back Milei in the final round. 

A month later in November, support swung to the outsider with votes for Milei surging to match Milei’s and Bullrich’s combined total in the October ballot.

Macri’s lawmakers were instrumental in pushing through his omnibus legislative package and shielding his executive orders from vetoes, while Milei’s La Libertad Avanza held just 15 percent of the seats in Congress.

“Since Milei’s rise to the presidency, there has been a disagreement between him and Macri regarding the balance of power,” said political analyst Alejandro Catterberg from top polling firm Poliarquía. “Macri believed that the extreme institutional weakness of the La Libertad Avanza government would lead to a sort of co-governance with him. The government believes that Macri and his party are politically worn out, and that their voter base has already shifted its support to Milei.” 

Milei’s time

During that October 2023 dinner, there was a debate about how to present the electoral alliance between Macri’s party and the libertarians. Santiago Caputo, Milei’s top advisor, was firm in telling Macri it shouldn’t look to voters like they were pitching another Macri term, according to two people present at the meeting who asked not to be identified. To Caputo, this was Milei’s time to shine.

In the run-up to Sunday’s vote, there’s been no shortage of intrigue and last-minute manoeuvring.

Milei alleged that Macri had struck a pact with former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to dirty his name and bring down a bill he sponsored that would have barred Fernández de Kirchner and others convicted of corruption from running for office. Macri accused Milei of the same, saying the bill had failed due to the President’s efforts.

Earlier this week, Adorni announced a major policy shift sure to curry favour among the City’s voters: the government slashed tariffs on imported mobile phones that marked up iPhone prices in Argentina above US$2,000. 

He was poised to announce another major economic measure to lower regulations for dollar use Thursday, but cancelled after accusations he was using his platform as spokesman to further his electoral campaign.

Adorni has said he would step down from his government role just before taking office in City Hall.