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Campaign comments

Midterms in midyear

28-06-2025 07:24 Given the total inability of the protagonists in Buenos Aires Province to get their act together, the midterms still four months away are looking more like candidates for “It’s the economy, stupid” than ever.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

Begin the begin

21-06-2025 06:28 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is paradoxically sidelined and occupying centre stage at the same time. With her exclusion from any electoral candidacy, the campaign effectively starts again.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The lady vanishes

14-06-2025 06:37 The most immediate question here is who replaces Cristina Fernández de Kirchner at the helm. Problems of Peronist succession have always been so daunting historically that most of the movement would rather not face them.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

On a mission in omission

07-06-2025 06:34 Voting for provincial deputies in Misiones is more likely to be a landslide for the local ruling party than any electoral earthquake.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Where angels fear to tread

31-05-2025 06:33 The demolition job suffered by PRO in the City has most provinces now thinking twice about advancing their elections and exposing local hegemonies to the forces of heaven.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

They also serve who only stand and wait

17-05-2025 06:31 Electoral tides notoriously shift in the final week and even the last minute.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Four-by-four voting

10-05-2025 07:20 Next weekend’s City race hogs the electoral limelight but there is voting even closer in time – like tomorrow when four provinces will be advancing their midterms.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The great debate

01-05-2025 09:39 The absurd multiplicity of 17 list-heading candidates for 30 City Legislature seats can be boiled down into a triangle of the PRO, libertarian and Peronist blocs, although this does not necessarily translate into only three candidates since others stand to make inroads.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

First day of the rest of the year

19-04-2025 06:00 Economists have hailed the exit from the cepo as a milestone but this columnist hesitates to consider it an electoral game-changer – there is both too much and too little time for that.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

And so it begins

12-04-2025 05:22 This year’s midterm voting begins tomorrow in the major province of Santa Fe with the constituent assembly elections.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Going to the dogs?

16-12-2023 07:20 This final election 2023 column concludes a series running the length of the campaign – now it’s time to detail the resulting political architecture in the present tense.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

They also serve…

02-12-2023 10:23 That stateside visit threw something of a spanner into what is anyway very much a stop-go process of transition and Cabinet-building – Milei would seem anxious to remind people of the first half of his self-definition as an anarcho-capitalist.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Method in his madness?

25-11-2023 14:16 Javier Milei’s solitary rise to the top from almost nowhere in a couple of years is more apparent than real. The key to this success is more like the solution to Agatha Christie’s 'Murder on the Orient Express' – they all did it.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

18-11-2023 06:42 Democratic voting in Argentina ran on the basis of simple majorities until 1972 when that system was a non-starter for a military régime since it would guarantee victory for a Juan Domingo Perón. In order to give themselves the faint chance of the anti-Peronist chunk of society outnumbering the Peronist masses if obliged to vote en bloc, they introduced a system whereby nothing short of an absolute majority would permit victory in the first round.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

Run-up to run-off II

11-11-2023 05:40 If everybody assumed Milei to be the next president after his PASO primary upset with Massa massively favoured following last month’s turnaround, the wheel could be turning full circle again.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Run-up to run-off

04-11-2023 05:37 If we have had two straight surprises in the voting so far this year, why not three?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Crouching tiger, hidden lion

28-10-2023 04:18 Fear of the unknown is such a conservative emotion that instead people ended up clinging to the status quo, inflation and scandals included.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

Expecting every voter to do their duty

21-10-2023 05:51 While tomorrow’s election is widely seen as a three-cornered affair (like the hats in the times of Trafalgar), all three of its fleets tend to believe that there are only two sides. Could tomorrow’s election echo the battle by ultimately leading to a breakdown of existing alliances with a new Argentina eventually resulting?

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

The pit and the pendulum II

14-10-2023 05:22 The pit and the pendulum feed each other with “the worse, the better” logic, appealing to most candidates with Milei’s advice against renewing fixed-term peso deposits the outstanding example.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The pit and the pendulum

07-10-2023 06:22 Neither last Sunday’s debate nor the passage of eight weeks have produced any paradigmatic shift from the three-way tie of the PASO primary.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Hat-trick or the third wheel?

30-09-2023 05:07 Any win helps and far more so when the margin of Alfredo Cornejo’s victory in Mendoza surpassed all expectations. But does this injection of enthusiasm reviving optimism reach the dimensions of a game-changer for Patricia Bullrich?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Will Mendoza be the bulldozer?

23-09-2023 05:03 Whichever way Mendoza goes, it will be the last throw of the dice before general election day on October 22.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

It’s the election, stupid!

16-09-2023 05:37 By all but abolishing income tax, Massa has also abolished the contradiction between his simultaneous economic stewardship and presidential candidacy by chucking away his ministerial hat in favour of his electioneering cap.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Do you know the way to Santa Fe?

09-09-2023 05:32 The three-way split with half the electorate potentially up for grabs opens up infinite mathematical possibilities.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Neither ready nor steady but still go

02-09-2023 06:24 Is there any structure beneath the protest vote foam – is there any iceberg below the tip?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Milei – melee or millennial?

26-08-2023 06:00 The Milei vote can be seen as a backlash against impoverishment, laid at the door of a regime belittling self-made wealth, meritocracy and savings.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Two’s grieta, three’s a crowd

19-08-2023 06:01 While we are constantly told that Greater Buenos Aires is the “mother of all battles” deciding every election, Javier Milei’s win was hinterland payback, winning 16 of the 23 provinces, all inland – the mirror image of his 2021 midterm electoral advent

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Santa Fe not so holy or faithful

15-07-2023 06:56 Turning to tomorrow’s PASO primary in Santa Fe, the mutual backstabbing within Juntos por el Cambio mentioned above is far from absent there – indeed nowhere else is the internal warfare more open.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The elections according to Saint John

08-07-2023 06:59 San Juan is not an especially attractive city for tourists but it does have an uncanny knack for being a venue for key turning-points in Argentine political history.

by Michael Soltys