Thursday, October 6, 2022

WORLD | 12-12-2019 23:07

Tough talks ahead as UK exit polls predict Boris Johnson victory

Exit polls in Britain predict that Boris Johnson's Conservatives will continue in power with a majority government, after Thursday's general election.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson campaigned on one theme alone — "Get Brexit done" — and if the results of an exit poll projection are correct, that just may happen.

The United Kingdom exit poll predicts that Johnson's Conservatives won a substantial victory Thursday night in the country's general election.

But even if Johnson pulls Britain out of the European Union by the January 31 deadline, he will still face the mountainous challenge of negotiating a complex trade deal with the European Union by the end of next year — a task that many experts say is not possible.

In many ways, the hard part of the Brexit process still lies ahead, even though Johnson is now expected to win parliamentary approval for the Brexit divorce deal that his government negotiated with the EU in October.

So far Johnson's Brexit plan has not been approved by British lawmakers. He has vowed to put the bill before the new Parliament shortly after its members are sworn in next week, with passage likely in early January unless some unforeseen snags develop.

Johnson has said every Conservative Party candidate who was seeking election had agreed to back his Brexit bill. That means he can win enactment of the bill despite vocal opposition from the smaller parties in Parliament. The Labour Party, the pro-EU Scottish National Party and the pro-EU Liberal Democrats would not have the numbers to derail the Brexit bill.

Johnson seems well positioned to get Britain out of the EU by the end of January, making good on the results of a 2016 referendum, but little would change immediately, since the agreement includes a transition period for the UK to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU.

During the transition, Britain would continue to follow EU rules and regulations, and freedom of movement between EU nations and Britain would continue. There would be few if any visible changes.

Trade talks would likely begin shortly after Britain formally leaves the bloc, and both sides would be expected to decide by the end of June if an extension is needed so talks can continue past the deadline at the end of 2020.

Evercore analyst Krishna Guha warned that significant Brexit-related risks loom. 

"The subsequent phase of negotiations on future trading relations with the EU holds significant risks including of a hard exit at the end of 2020 if Johnson does not pivot to seek an extension of the transition period and an agreement cannot be reached in 12 months," the analyst wrote.

Johnson, however, has repeatedly pledged that Britain will not seek an extension of the transition period, raising the prospect that Britain could "crash out" of the current trading regime without a new one in place.

European leaders suggested this week that the timetable is virtually impossible to meet. Most experts think it would take longer than one year for the two sides to reach a comprehensive trade accord. 

– AP

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