Trump shelters Flávio Bolsonaro, risking tensions with Brazil

The US decision to allow the defeated right-wing Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro to seek refuge in the US poses a fresh irritant to a bilateral relationship that has been marked by finger-pointing and accusations between the two countries’ leaders.

The United States issued visas for Bolsonaro and his family as US President Donald Trump continued to criticise the election that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won last weekend. The relationship has already been marked by rancour, too, as when Lula warned at the United Nations General Assembly last month that other countries should not “undermine popular will.”

Trump said he would allow Bolsonaro to come to the US because Brazil’s election was “terrible” and “rigged” – and because he knows the candidate’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, “very well.” The elder Bolsonaro, a Trump ally during his time as president from 2019 to 2023, is serving a 27-year sentence for his role in plotting a coup attempt after the 2022 election to prevent Lula from taking office.

“Some of Lula’s willingness to work with Washington will be informed by how Trump deals with this right now,” said Nick Zimmerman, former director for Brazil and Southern Cone Affairs at the White House National Security Council. “It’s too soon to be confident that there’s disaster, or that things will get better. The dust needs to settle.”

For the time being, Lula may not have much to fear. Trump seemed to put a little distance between him and Bolsonaro’s refuge in Florida.

“I know that we gave him a pass to come into the country, so we’ll see,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “But I won’t get involved. It was a very strange election, that’s for sure.”

Trump last year hit Brazil with tariffs in an attempt to halt a criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro – a bid that only rallied Brazilian public support for Lula.

Lula is looking to the Trump administration’s next moves before assessing the effect on relations between the two countries, according to a person close to the Brazilian president.

That assessment will depend on whether Trump receives Bolsonaro and his brother Eduardo for meetings in Washington, the level of support his administration extends to the defeated candidate, and the outcome of the US midterm elections next week, the person said.

Lula continues to favour a pragmatic, diplomatic relationship with Washington and is keeping plans to travel to the US for the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in December at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, the person said.

Trump and Lula appeared to patch things up late last year at a summit in Malaysia, and Lula visited the White House in May. Yet tensions flared again in recent months. Brazil blocked visas for two senior US State Department officials over concerns that they wanted to cast doubt on the country’s electronic voting system before the election. The State Department later denied that was the purpose of the officials’ trip to Brazil.

Lula’s administration over the summer refused to give diplomatic approval to Trump’s ambassadorial pick, saying that it wanted to wait until after the election. The US in turn said it would revoke the visa for Brazil’s ambassador.

Trump’s welcome may provide Bolsonaro, who faces who faces at least two federal investigations in Brazil over allegations of money-laundering, with a platform for his grievances about the election. On Wednesday, he declared that he would lead opposition to Lula from the US and alleged electoral fraud, without providing evidence.

Yet Brazil’s courts view the election as a settled matter, and Lula has been recognised by almost all governments in the region – even those led by ideological opponents like Colombia. The Trump administration also wants to work with Brazil in areas like energy and critical minerals development.

Bolsonaro’s exile in the US may come to little, if his father’s experience is any guide. After disputing his loss in the 2022 election and alleging that voting machines were rigged, Jair Bolsonaro, too, flew to Florida just before Lula’s inauguration, staying for three months before returning to Brazil where he was placed under arrest.

“President Trump famously does not like a loser, and Flávio’s own allies have walked away from him in Brazil,” said Ricardo Zuniga, a longtime foreign service officer who served in Brazil. “It’s hard to see how an extended conflict between the White House and the Lula administration makes much sense for the rest of Trump’s agenda.”