December 10, 2025 marks the second anniversary of President Javier Milei’s government. Below, a review of some of the key economic and social indicators at the halfway point of his term in office, alongside economists’ assessments of what may lie ahead in his remaining two years.
1. Salaries and pensions
Since the current administration took office, the National Council for Employment, Productivity and the Minimum Wage has failed to reach an agreement on setting the minimum wage, leaving the government to determine it unilaterally. By December, the minimum wage will stand at 334,800 pesos, equivalent to around US$232 at the current exchange rate.
Measured against the cost of essential goods and services, the purchasing power of the minimum wage has deteriorated sharply. In November 2023, when it stood at 146,000 pesos, it covered 78.9 percent of the basic food basket for a family of four and 37.4 percent of the total basic basket. By October 2025 – the latest available data – coverage had fallen to 59.2 percent of the food basket and just 26.5 percent of the total basket.
A similar trend is evident among pensioners. Between November 2023 and November 2025, and despite a frozen bonus of 70,000 pesos, those receiving the minimum pension saw their income fall from covering 50 percent to just 26.6 percent of the amount that Argentina’s Public Ombudsman for the Elderly estimates is required to meet monthly expenses.
2. Poverty, employment and economic activity
The most recent poverty estimate was published just this month by the Social Debt Observatory of the Catholic University of Argentina (UCA). Based on INDEC data, the report found that poverty affected 31.8 percent of the population in the second half of 2025, while extreme poverty stood at 6.8 percent.
However, UCA observatory director Agustín Salvia warned that the decline may be overstated. Speaking at the report’s presentation, he said that when methodological adjustments are applied, poverty may have fallen by only 2.1 percentage points compared to 2023, placing the figure closer to 33.9 percent.
The UCA report also stressed the importance of welfare programmes. Without payments such as the Universal Child Benefit (AUH), poverty would rise to around 42 percent, while extreme poverty would affect between 12 and 13 percent of the population.
“The first thing this model undermines is the path to development,” said Hernán Herrera, economic coordinator at the Instituto Argentina Grande. “On that path there are a few matters which must be considered: industry, infrastructure, social equality, regional equality, investment in science, innovation and technology.”
Since 2023, he noted, industrial activity has fallen by 9.5 percent, construction by 24 percent and public works by 80 percent. “Science funding, according to our studies, is down by more than 40 percent compared to 2023,” he added.
The economist added that there are 19,164 fewer companies and nearly 140,000 fewer jobs recorded in the private sector as of November 2025. “Public expenditure is below 2023 levels and that impacts the private sector,” he asserted.
3. Inflation and utilities
According to the INDEC’s latest report, the year-on-year price increase is 31.1 percent, while inflation in October was just 2.3 percent – a far cry from the monthly 25 percent registered in Milei’s first month in office. Most analysts expect a similar figure for November.
The Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economics at the University of Buenos Aires calculates that the “basic utilities basket” – which includes gas, electricity and other household services – reached 173,480 pesos. This represents more than 50 percent of the minimum wage and an increase of 525 percent compared to 2023.
4. Indebtedness and consumer behaviour
According to the Central Bank’s latest report on non-financial credit providers, the average client of financial institutions owed 4.4 million pesos as of July. This was 23 percent more than in January 2025 and 144 percent higher than in December 2023, when average debt stood at 1.8 million pesos.
Among non-financial lenders, average debt reached 1.2 million pesos.
Against a backdrop of falling real wages and employment, consumption has also weakened. The sharpest decline occurred in 2024, when retail sales fell by 21.9 percent year-on-year in June, according to the Argentine Medium-Sized Enterprise Confederation (CAME). By October 2025 the contraction had eased, but sales were still down 1.4 percent compared to the previous year.
5. Dollar, reserves and projections
Taking stock of the macroeconomic situation, economist Francisco Eggers said the central challenge remains the accumulation of international reserves amid a balance-of-payments deficit and an exchange-rate policy that fails to correct it.
Gross reserves currently stand at around US$42 billion. However, Eggers noted that more than US$18 billion belong to the Bank of China, US$2.5 billion to the US Treasury, and US$3.3 billion correspond to repurchase-related liabilities. A further US$17 billion are bank deposits held at the Central Bank, while more than US$2 billion are earmarked for upcoming BOPREAL bond repayments.
“As a result, net reserves are negative,” he concluded.
Eggers acknowledged that one of the government’s main achievements has been the reduction of the fiscal deficit. On a cash basis, the primary balance is now positive, which allows for greater monetary policy independence – a necessary, though insufficient, condition for macroeconomic stability.
“That stability is also a necessary – but not sufficient – condition for growth,” he said, cautioning that it remains unclear how the fiscal turnaround was achieved.
Economist Martín Kalos agreed that some objectives had been met, particularly in terms of “nominal stabilisation.” However, he argued that these gains were largely supported by “extraordinary contributions from the International Monetary Fund first, and then from the United States Treasury.” extraordinary financing from the International Monetary Fund and, later, the US Treasury. He also described the partial easing of capital controls as a positive step.
The partial lifting of currency control restrictions, he said, was also a positive step.
Nonetheless, Kalos warned that the current foreign exchange regime is “unsustainable.” He also criticised the absence of a production strategy. “The government has no industrial policy, and that shows in its tolerance of high interest rates, falling sales across the country, declining household incomes and growing job insecurity.”
These issues, he said, are evident. Yet the government continues to ask the public for patience to resolve them.
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