Friday, April 12, 2024

ECONOMY | 29-02-2024 16:06

Survey shows Argentines expect inflation to slow in next 12 months

Study on inflation expectations disseminated by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella shows forecasted rate of 170% over next 12 months.

The inflation rate expected by Argentines for the next year is 170.8 percent on average – nearly 60 percentage points less than forecast a month ago, according to a new survey.

According to the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella study, inflation expected by the population for the next 12 months in January was on average 230 percent, falling to 170.8 percent in February. According to the median, it went from 150 percent to 100 percent.

As for price hikes expected for the next 30 days, in February this reached 19.08 percent on average and dropped by 6.95 percentage points compared to the figure in January (which had been 26.03 percent).

This number “has a greater response rate than the annual inflation, which suggests that in a context of high uncertainty it is probably easier for people to answer what they believe will happen in a month,” the university’s experts stated.

The survey also showed that the expected inflation is lower in all regions of the country: in Greater Buenos Aires it is 201.8 percent, lower than the January figure, which was 214.2 percent; in Buenos Aires City it is 214.5 percent (as against 246.7 percent in January), and outside Buenos Aires, 147.1 percent (in January, the value had been 236.1 percent). 

In the meantime, the average expected inflation perceived by homes fell both for sectors of lower and higher income levels.

In February, it was also noted that the differences of inflation perception among homes of different education levels (also close to income levels) dropped. Thus, individuals with a lower education level showed a dive in perception, from 210.8 percent in January to 151.9 percent in February, even lower than what was reported in December (188.2 percent). 

People with a higher education level also considered it lower, from 240.5 percent in January to 180.5 percent this month, according to the survey.



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