Tuesday, September 21, 2021

ECONOMY | 31-08-2018 13:41

Dujovne confirms IMF talks for Monday, peso calms slightly against dollar

IMF says it hopes to 'rapidly conclude' new round of talks with Argentina, set to open next week in Washington with a view to accelerating the release of funds for the economy.

After two days of economic turbulence, in which the peso lost 20 percent of its value against the dollar, Argentina's national currency  began to recover Friday in early trading, recording a tiny 0.68 percent gain.

The peso was trading at almost 40 to the dollar – a record low – at the end of play on Thursday as the Central Bank hiked interest rates to 60 percent in a desperate bid to stabilise a currency in freefall, prompted in part by President Mauricio Macri televised announcement a day earlier that he he would request an acceleration to IMF-agreed funding.

The peso has lost more than 50 percent of its value against the dollar since the start of 2018 as investor confidence has plummeted. Inflation over the last 12 months is at around 30 percent.

A US$50-billion three-year stand-by loan was agreed with the International Monetary Fund back in June, with an initial US$15-billion tranche released then and another US$3 billion due next month. Part of that first tranche was meant to help shore up the peso, but after Macri revealed Argentina had asked for early release of the remaining funds, the peso started to plunge.

That had a positive effect on the Merval index on the Buenos Aires stock market, though, as it jumped 5.34 percent by close on Thursday on the back of strong performances in the petroleum sector, notably by Brazilian giant Petrobras with a 13.5 percent rise in share price.

On Thursday night, Finance Minister Nicolás Dujovne announced that he would head to Washington next week to "continue to progress" talks with the IMF on "additional disbursements in 2019."

The IMF released a statement saying its "goal is to rapidly conclude these talks and submit the revised economic plan to the Executive Board."

Chief IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said: "Argentina has the full support of the Fund and we are confident that the strong commitment and determination of the Argentine authorities will help the country overcome the current difficulties."

'Transformation not failure'

Macri's request had seen the peso lose almost seven percent on Wednesday and when it opened on Thursday down another four percent, the Central Bank decided to intervene, pledging to keep interest rates at 60 percent until December at least. But that measure didn't stop the fall as the peso ended the day down 13.5 percent.

Cabinet Chief Marcos Peña had tried to downplay the crash, saying: "We are not facing economic failure. This is a transformation, not failure. In that transformation there are difficult moments."

Macri's government has committed to reducing its budget deficit to 2.7 percent this year, from 3.9 percent in 2017, and to 1.3 percent of GDP next year in return for IMF support.

Speaking on Thursday at the opening of the Council of the Americas business chamber in the capital, Peña blamed the country's economic woes on the free-spending policies of Macri's predecessor Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her government.

"We are the country that has the most times violated its international contracts in the world, which has lied and cheated the rest of the time, and has shown again and again – until now – that it is not willing to seek fiscal balance and depend on its own resources," he said.

Europe-based Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid says Argentina is managing its "currency crisis in a more conventional manner" now with the Central Bank raising interest rates "to the highest in the world." But he said IMF disbursements could lead to "a tighter fiscal deficit target," which could in turn provoke more currency fluctuations.


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