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ECONOMY | 27-12-2023 19:21

New report forecasts 225% inflation over next 12 months

Inflation in Argentina skyrocketed in December and could reach 225.9% over the next 12 months, according to a new survey.

Inflation in Argentina skyrocketed in December and could reach 225.9 percent over the next 12 months, according to a new survey.

The report, prepared by the Finance Research Centre of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, says that the December devaluation of the peso introduced by President Javier Milei's government saw inflation expectations soar.

According to the report, the increase in inflation expectations is driven by the higher-income bracket (242.6 percent, on average), whereas in the low-income bracket the average is 188.2 percent.

In addition, the leap experienced by the rate for the next 12 months has a monthly correlative: inflation expected for the next 30 days was 17.31 percent in November and recorded a value of 27.96 percent in the last month of the year; thus, the median went from 12 to 30 percent, while the average went from 14.46 percent to 27.96 percent.

The Universidad Di Tella explained that as has been happening over the last few months, the expected monthly inflation is at annual values far above the average expectations by homes for the next 12 months.

By regions, both in Buenos Aires City and Greater Buenos Aires, and in other parts of the country, there were considerable increases in inflationary expectations.

On a case-by-case basis, Greater Buenos Aires increased by 117.5 percent, going from 100.3 percent in November to 217.8 percent in December; in Buenos Aires City, the increase is 118 percent, going from a 115.4-percent average in November to 233.4 percent in December. Outside Buenos Aires, the increase was 119.5 percent, going from 108.9 percent to 228.4 percent. 

In the meantime, the report revealed that the average expected inflation as perceived by homes is rising in both higher- and lower-income sectors.

In December, both income segments experienced rises in inflation expectations for the next 12 months: in the case of the higher-income segment, the increase was much more considerable than that of the lower-income segment. 

For the first group, it went from 104.7 percent on average in November to 242.6 percent in December; in the lower-income group, it climbed from 112.5 percent to 188.2 percent over the same period.

 

– TIMES/PERFIL

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