All eyes in Argentina will turn to Buenos Aires City on Sunday as the nation’s capital stages key midterm elections that will serve as a bellwether for President Javier Milei’s government and his La Libertad Avanza party.
More than 2.5 million voters are eligible to cast a ballot in the election, which will elect 30 deputies – half the total – to the Buenos Aires City Legislature. But despite the issues at stake being local, the government’s decision to deploy substantial resources and turn the local campaign into a national referendum on the Milei model has drawn greater attention to what at first glance looks to be an underwhelming race.
Attention is likely to fall on three main candidates: Silvia Lospennato of the right-wing PRO party, Peronist contender Leandro Santoro and La Libertad Avanza’s Manuel Adorni. They are expected to emerge with the biggest number of votes from a packed line-up that includes 17 party lists in total – an unprecedented tally.
This fragmentation, in theory, increases the chances of votes being shaved off from the major forces, potentially limiting their overall tally.
Milei, 54, is not running in tomorrow’s election but has chosen Adorni, his presidential spokesperson and chief mouthpiece, to top his party’s slate of candidates for the City Legislature.
The candidacy is part of an aggressive move by La Libertad Avanza to challenge the hegemony of PRO – Milei’s sometime ally, often rival – in the capital. The party, led by former president Mauricio Macri, has been in charge of City Hall since 2007 and while the mayorship is not up for election this time out, a disappointing result will provide further evidence to Milei of his party’s growing dominance of the political arena and increase pressure on Mayor Jorge Macri, Mauricio’s cousin.
Meanwhile, Lospennato – an experienced lawmaker who made her name with notable campaigning for abortion reform and was a key mover behind the ‘Ficha Limpia’ anti-corruption bill – will hope to raise her profile and ensure that the capital remains clad in PRO’s bright yellow.
Also competing for the same electorate is the Volvamos Buenos Aires front, which admittedly has a more moderate stance, and is headed by former City mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who is attacking his former PRO party colleagues.
The other leading contender in the race, Santoro – a former member of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) – could be set to secure his largest share of the vote to date in the capital, heading a Peronist list that, like its right-wing rivals, is suffering from splinters. Outsiders Alejandro Kim (Progreso y Valores) and Juan Abal Medina (Seamos Libres) could take points off his tally too.
Other parties are also in the running. The Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores – Unidad (FIT-U) is presenting Vanina Biasi, Luca Bonfante, and Celeste Fierro as its lead candidates on a unified slate.
Among emerging parties and smaller forces, some notable candidacies include: Ucedé with Ramiro Marra; Evolución (of Radical origin) with Lucille Levy; and the Coalición Cívica, which is fielding Paula Oliveto.
The electoral landscape is rounded out by a range of other lists aiming to gain or expand representation in the Legislature: Unión Porteña Libertaria (with Yamil Santoro), Movimiento de Integración y Desarrollo, Movimiento Plural, Confluencia, Nuevo Más, and Frente Patriota Federal, among others.
In total, more than a dozen political groups will contest the election, which will serve as a political barometer for the national scene.
Earlier this week, electoral authorities in Buenos Aires City authorised the release of partial results before the traditional 9pm release.
Expect the results to come in earlier tomorrow – and the analysis to start almost immediately.
Who can vote?
Voting is compulsory for all Argentine citizens aged 18 to 70, both in national and local elections. Those who fail to vote without a valid justification may be fined, as established by the National Electoral Code.
Young people aged 16 and 17 and those over 70 may vote if they wish, but are not obliged to and will not be penalised for not doing so.
Foreign residents in the city who meet the legal requirements are required to participate in local elections. However, if they do not vote, no fines are applied – so in practice, their vote is also voluntary.
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