President Javier Milei will put his government’s popularity to the test today in key legislative elections in Buenos Aires Province, the traditional stronghold of the opposition Peronist movement.
Milei, 54, is hoping a victory or strong performance for his La Libertad Avanza alliance in the nation’s most-populous region will help wipe away the mess of several ongoing political storms.
Buenos Aires Province, governed by Peronist leader Axel Kicillof, accounts for more than 30 percent of Argentina’s GDP and contains 40 percent of the national electorate. That makes this vote for local lawmakers and councillors a key prelude to the upcoming midterm national elections on October 26.
The results will be closely watched by politicians, analysts and markets alike, all of whom are seeking an assessment of Milei’s staying power.
The Milei administration heads into the contest shaken by a corruption scandal at the ANDIS national disability agency involving people close to the President, including his sister and chief-of-staff Karina Milei.
The vote comes just four days after Congress overturned a presidential veto for the first time, enacting a law that declares an emergency in the case of the disabled grants additional funds to the minority group.
On the economic front, the government began intervening this week in the currency market, selling dollars from the Treasury to contain the peso’s depreciation, which had been accelerating in recent weeks despite high interest rates.
That’s a stark change, given Milei’s normal free-market mantra and may complicate relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to political analyst Marcos Novaro, the government approaches Sunday’s election “more battered than it expected two months ago, but with a strategy that remains effective for them: polarisation with Kirchnerism and the opposition, between the past and the future.”
The ruling party, La Libertad Avanza, currently holds just 12 of the 92 seats in the Buenos Aires Province Legislature, meaning it could increase its representation even if it loses the election.
However, Novaro warned that if the government were to lose by more than five points, “the markets will react sensitively, things with the dollar will get heavier, and the road to October could become complicated.”
Milei has banked his popularity on falling inflation – consumer price hikes have slowed from 87 percent in the first seven months of 2024 to 17.3 percent over the same period this year – and through polarisation with Kirchnerism, the Peronist faction led by former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007–2015), who is now under house arrest as she serves a corruption sentence.
Most polls forecast a close race with a slight edge for the Peronists and warn of the possibility of high abstention.
For this election, the ruling La Libertad Avanza has practically absorbed the PRO party of former president Mauricio Macri (2015–19), while the Peronists have managed to forge a fragile unity despite multiple internal rifts.
Polling stations are already open and close at 6pm local time, with the two main forces set to await the results in La Plata, the provincial capital.
– TIMES/AFP
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