Fervour for Milei cools in rural town as midterms near

For clues as to why President Javier Milei faces trouble in next week's midterms, look no further than San Andrés de Giles, a sleepy farming town surrounded by wheat fields located some 120 kilometres from Buenos Aires.

The town backed Milei in late 2023, when the 54-year-old economist swept to power as an outsider promising to fix Argentina's broken economy. Two years earlier, it had supported Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández, making it one of the country’s electoral swing towns.

Milei won 58 percent of the vote in Giles, as its known, higher than his national average of 55.65 percent. But the fervour he inspired there has since faded, an ominous sign for the La Libertad Avanza leader, whose reform agenda hangs in the balance.

At the town’s brightly lit public library, Jacqueline Garrahan rearranges books between visits from students. A retired rural teacher who taught for more than three decades, she works part-time to supplement her monthly pension of around US$600, which is barely enough to support her daughter at university.

"Being on a teacher's pension, it's very difficult to support a child who wants to get ahead today," she said.

In 2023, she voted for Milei as the candidate most likely to oust the Peronism, which has dominated Argentine politics for most of the post-war period but been dogged by accusations of corruption.

"I thought he would put an end to corruption, and today I feel completely disappointed," she said, referring to the scandal allegedly involving Presidential Chief-of-Staff Karina Milei, the head of state’s sister. "Milei didn’t have all his ducks in a row, but we voted for him just the same. Now what do we do? Who do we vote for? It’s frustrating."

'I'm disappointed'

Standing outside her pharmacy on a quiet residential street, 35-year-old Natalia Schiro shared the sentiment. "Just like everyone else, I wanted a change and we elected change," she said. "I voted for Milei, but now I’m disappointed about our everyday life."

For Garrahan, who still defines herself as anti-Peronist, the breaking point was Milei’s refusal to adjust state university budgets to match inflation. His frequent outbursts have also alienated voters. He has branded his critics “fiscal degenerates” and “damned lefties,” and accused journalists of being enemies of freedom.

"I believed he came here to calm things down," said Garrahan. "He’s violent, aggressive."

The past few weeks have been bruising for Milei. A year ago, he was being cheered by the global right for sharply reducing inflation and erasing a 14-year budget deficit through severe austerity. But the government has since suffered a string of blows.

In September, the Peronists won an election in Buenos Aires Province elections, triggering a run on the peso that Milei has tried to curb with financial support from Washington.US President Donald Trump, a vocal ally, has publicly backed him.

His main congressional candidate, José Luis Espert, was also forced to withdraw over alleged links to a drug-trafficker, while the corruption scandal implicating Karina Milei has further eroded trust in the administration.

"With a depressed economy, corruption scandals and considerable uncertainty about how things will be managed from October onward, it’s very likely that Milei will be much less seductive," said Gabriel Vommaro, a sociologist at the National University of San Martín.

"That doesn’t mean those same people won’t choose him again in a future run-off," added the expert.

Vommaro noted that with La Libertad Avanza holding a minority in both chambers, the government is unlikely to secure a majority in the new Congress. "It doesn’t look like it’s heading for a landslide victory," he said.

Short-lived

The political and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on grain producers in South America’s breadbasket.

Aldana Guanzini, 37, a third-generation farmer who grows soy, corn and wheat on 3,000 hectares with five employees, exports 80 percent of her crops. She was thrilled when the government scrapped export taxes in September to attract dollars during the currency run.

"We were happy, we had taken out a loan to buy a harvester and were afraid of not being able to pay for supplies to grow again," she said.

The relief was short-lived. Three days later, after the government reached its dollar target, the levies were reinstated.

"We’re living in total uncertainty. We can’t plan ahead," said Guanzini. "I was expecting something else and more transparency. Although, come hell or high water, the countryside will always grow crops."