Argentina’s top court has sidelined former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from future elections, likely ushering in a new political era in South America’s second-biggest economy.
Just a week after President Javier Milei’s arch rival announced her candidacy in a key midterm race, the Supreme Court banned the opposition leader from public office for life, delivering a major victory to the libertarian as he works to convince investors that Argentina is changing. The ruling forces Peronism – the country’s dominant political force for decades – to reinvent itself, while leaving Milei without his most emblematic adversary in an increasingly polarised nation.
“For the last decade and a half, Argentine politics has been reorganised under two very strong poles,” said Joaquín Bagues, managing director at local brokerage Grit Capital Group. Fernández de Kirchner and former pro-market president Mauricio Macri “were the sun for their respective parties, and now we’re entering a new era.”
Argentina’s Supreme Court upheld Fernández de Kirchner’s 2022 conviction on corruption charges Tuesday, confirming a six-year prison sentence, according to court documents. The three sitting justices ruled unanimously. The court’s two remaining seats remain vacant after Milei failed in his attempts to appoint allies.
Now 72, Fernández de Kirchner has five days to appear for final sentencing. She is unlikely to serve time in prison given her age, with her lawyers formally requesting house arrest on Wednesday.
The former president has long denied wrongdoing and denounced the ruling as politically motivated. Speaking outside her party’s headquarters, Fernández de Kirchner claimed the ruling elite fears Peronism’s ability to offer an alternative once Milei’s government “falls apart.” In anticipation of the verdict, party supporters and unions blocked major highways around Buenos Aires, burning tyres and beating drums.
“They can send me to jail, but people will still have miserable salaries or lose their jobs,” Fernández de Kirchner said, rallying her base to mobilise. Scattered protests continued Wednesday.
A longtime figurehead of Peronism, Fernández de Kirchner said last week she would run for a Buenos Aires Province legislative seat in September – a bellwether for the October midterm election. Some experts believed the move might have granted her immunity or at least delayed legal proceedings, but the court’s ruling eliminated that possibility.
Conversely, many believe her candidacy accelerated the court’s decision ahead of the July deadline for candidate registration. “This ruling has a marvellous electoral schedule,” she said, alluding to the timing.
It remains unclear who will fill the vacuum she leaves behind. None of her closest allies – including her son, lawmaker Máximo Kirchner – poll close to her. Though divisive, Fernández de Kirchner remains one of Argentina’s most recognisable political figures, with 33 percent approval, far behind Milei’s 50 percent, according to a recent LatAm Pulse survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News.
“The big question mark now is how [Fernández de] Kirchner will be able to hold onto leadership of Peronism once she loses the main tool she’s always used to exert power, which is to run for office and prove her support at the polls,” said Alejandro Catterberg, director of top polling firm Poliarquía in Buenos Aires.
Fernández de Kirchner’s relationship with Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof – a former economy minister and longtime protégé – has grown strained. He defied her by decoupling provincial and national elections, a move seen as a bid to boost his own prospects. In a television interview last week, Fernández de Kirchner criticised the decision, exposing rifts within the movement. The two met for the first time in months after the announcement, according to local media.
Yet Kicillof, former economy minister Sergio Massa and even former president Alberto Fernández were quick to publicly support Fernández de Kirchner, both in person and on social media.
Meanwhile, Milei celebrated from Israel, where he is on an international tour meeting world leaders. “The republic works,” he wrote on X, also criticising corrupt politicians and journalists who had previously suggested he made a secret pact with Fernández de Kirchner after a legislative effort to bar her from office failed in Congress.
For many investors, Fernández de Kirchner has long represented Argentina’s most destabilising political force. As president from 2007 to 2015, she imposed capital and currency controls, ran large deficits, manipulated data, raised tariffs and defaulted on debts. Though her husband, Néstor Kirchner, had initiated the couple’s populist brand of Peronism, it was Cristina who became the movement’s enduring face.
When Macri came to power in 2015, Kirchnerism seemed on the decline. But Cristina returned in 2019 as vice-president under her hand-picked successor – a tenure marked by deeper economic controls and worsening investor confidence. Milei’s 2023 victory over Fernández’s economy minister marked a decisive break.
Fernández de Kirchner remains a polarising figure. She survived an assassination attempt in 2022 and faces several other corruption cases. In March, the US government banned her and her immediate family from entering the country due to her conviction.
“Now the ball is in Milei’s court,” said Mariel Fornoni of polling firm Management & Fit. “If Milei gets the economy to reactivate and keeps inflation down, Peronism doesn’t stand a chance. But if the government struggles, there could be a growth opportunity for Peronism.”
by Manuela Tobias, Bloomberg
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