Monday, July 15, 2024

ARGENTINA | 31-07-2023 16:52

Chubut the latest upset in a semester full of strong Peronist defeats

Fall of Peronism in Chubut Province marks a trend worrying Sergio Massa. The biggest surprises and open scenarios.

Juntos por el Cambio has broken a streak of 20 years of Peronist rule in Chubut Province. The same thing happened with the upset earlier this month in San Juan Province. What remains is to know the difference there will be in Santa Fe Province, where the opposition swept the board in the PASO primaries, and to see if Jorge Capitanich maintains his hold on power in Chaco.

The truth is that in the run-up to the PASO primaries on August 13, Peronism is arriving  badly beaten, with unexpected (or are they?) results and historic strongholds, which have been snatched away by the main opposition coalition.

On the electoral map, Chubut was the latest change. Ignacio Torres beat the ruling party’s gubernatorial by at least two points and thus puts an end to a run of Peronist administrations.

Two weeks ago, in the Santa Fe PASO primaries, Máximiliano Pullaro not only won the primary against coalition rivals Carolina Losada, the opposition also overtook Peronism with a huge swing. 

Peronism suffered its worst result in the provincial primary since the return to democracy. Yet it is not their only defeat so far this year.


Formosa and Córdoba, two Peronist triumphs

Weeks ago it was the turn of Formosa, where there were no surprises and incumbent Gildo Insfrán won once again with nearly 70 percent of the votes. Thus, he earned an eighth consecutive term of office in a district ruled by Peronism since the return to democracy.

On that very same day, June 25, Juan Schiaretti’s Peronist forces in Córdoba, running separate from Frente de Todos/Uniòn por la Patria, retained power through Martín Llaryora, who finish six points over Juntos por el Cambio candidate Luis Juez. That was perhaps the biggest blow for the opposition, which hoped to break the Peronist hegemony put in place over 20 years ago by José Manuel de la Sota. That dominance was confirmed last week with the victory of Daniel Passerini for the mayoralty of the provincial capital.


Chaco and San Luis: defeats in impregnable strongholds

One of the biggest upsets in the 2023 elections to date took place in the Chaco PASO primaries, where Juntos por el Cambio got 42 percent of the vote over 37 percent for Capitanich, who has suffered badly after the disappearance of 28-year-old Cecilia Strzyzowski. The general election will be held on September 10, nearly a month after the national primary.

Another key primary with a defeat for Peronism took place in mid-June in Mendoza Province. Peronism was left very much in the background, behind the Juntos primary clash and Omar de Marchi. For the provincial ruling party, Alfredo Cornejo won the primary against Luis Petri, who would then be chosen to be Patricia Bullrich’s vice-presidential candidate. Was it a surprise? No, but there were reproaches for their third place and staying outside any discussion of power.

In the province of San Luis, on June 11, one of the most striking recent pieces of news took place.Claudio Poggi, with the support of Juntos and Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, ousted Jorge Fernández, the candidate put up by Peronist Governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá.

Nearly a month earlier, on May 14 and following a ruling in which the Supreme Court barred Sergio Uñac from running for re-election, Juntos por el Cambio defeated the ruling party somewhat convincingly in San Juan. Marcelo Orrego got 50 percent of the vote against 43 percent for the Peronists.

There were no surprises and Peronism was expecting a negative result in Jujuy, where Gerardo Morales’ candidate (JxC), Carlos Sadir, obtained 49 percent of the vote.

The electoral calendar had been previously turned towards the provinces of Río Negro and Neuquén. The first one had no surprises and Alberto Weretilneck returned to power with provincial wheeler-dealers. In the latter case there was a surprise because Rolando ‘Rolo’ Figueroa, formerly of the Neuquén’s People’s Movement (MPN, in its Spanish acronym), went independent, played from the outside and took power away from the ruling party.

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Ramón Indart

Ramón Indart


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