More pain or gain with Spain?

The pain with Spain preys mainly on the gain. Bragging rights are rarely welcome and far less so in a context of national frustration but this column’s June 6 preview of the World Cup included the following paragraph: 

“The million-dollar question for most people is who will end up winning it. So this columnist will open the envelope now and out pops the name … Spain! This forecast does not stem from its status as the reigning European Champions nor being bedazzled by Lamine Yamal but from a superstitious sense of predestination – next Thursday’s kickoff will be between Mexico and South Africa, identical teams to the inauguration of the 2010 World Cup, which was decided by Andrés Iniesta’s goal (along with “Waka Waka” Shakira singing for both that tournament and this one).”

As it happened, the parallels with 2010 were even closer than suspected since the aforementioned Iniesta goal was fired in the second half of extra time just like Ferran Torres last Sunday (and also Mario Götze in 2014, the last time Argentina drew the short straw in a World Cup final). As in Italy in 1990, just a single goal frustrating an Argentine bid to keep its title – last Sunday marked the fourth time since then that a defending champion has been denied a repeat at the final hurdle, an experience shared by Brazil (in 1998) and France (in Qatar). In the next World Cup Spain will be the first defending champion to be playing on home turf.

For once this column was on the same page as Artificial Intelligence in tipping Spain’s victory (a rare enough concurrence, as will become evident at the foot of this text). A fully deserved triumph since they completely outplayed (20 shots at goal to one) a jaded Argentina whose chief merit was taking the rampant Iberians into extra time as perhaps no other side could have done – not even the astonishing Cape Verde at the other end of the tournament. Perhaps therein lies the key to this World Cup – looking how the winners and losers of its final started (Spain’s toothless draw against that tiny archipelago versus Lionel Messi’s brilliant hat-trick against Algeria) and ended it would seem to suggest that the former paced their timing right – perhaps Messi, who scored in the first, not the last five matches of the tournament, should have sat out the Jordan match, for example.

Noblesse oblige, the new champions deserve the congratulations denied them by their predecessors, some of whom were more inclined to exchange blows than shirts at the end of an intense final. With the possible exception of Egypt (whose formidable challenge to Argentina was perhaps helped by so many playing for the same club, Al-Ahly), no nation in the tournament had so many league team-mates playing together weekly (for champions Barcelona), a factor aiding the seemingly effortless co-ordination of short passes always hogging the ball – an almost optimal mix of youth and experience also looks good for the future. Only conceding one goal in the entire tournament, Spain pulled off the rare feat of a European triumph in a hemisphere where South American teams had been completely inexpugnable until 2014 (the aforementioned Götze goal). And to accomplish it, they had to overcome arguably the three most star-studded teams in the tournament: Portugal, France and Argentina.

The bar was considerably lower for Argentina and some might argue that a team which could suffer so excessively against the likes of Cape Verde and Egypt was lucky to reach the final. Perhaps Argentina was also guilty of a conceptual error in making nationalism their priority by giving the semi-final against England their best shot at the expense of the fourth star. But if one swallow does not make a summer, one substandard final does not make a winter either, obliterating the glorious run-up with seven consecutive victories. Arrogance for some in the outside world perhaps but seen as heart here.

Many tears were shed both for and by Messi but can we be so sure that this is end of story? Everybody used the phrase “last dance” but the way he played (far more deserving of the Golden Ball award than Rodrí if we look at the tournament as a whole rather than the final), can he be ruled out for 2030? This columnist would not even rule out an even older Cristiano Ronaldo for a World Cup which will also be played in Portugal. Quite apart from missing out on the fourth star, Messi must feel extremely frustrated at a personal level over possessing the shortest reign ever as top World Cup goal-scorer, a record unlikely to be broken – just 26 days until overtaken in the last weekend by a brace of Kylian Mbappé goals in that incredible double-digit third-place final between England and France. A match also worthy of mention as a contrast to an underperforming final – hailed as the best game of the World Cup although its plunges in quality (especially France in the first half) would make “the most entertaining” a more accurate description.

Last and perhaps least, the tables measuring performance by continent instead of country, as promised in the last column. Not just plucked out of Internet but requiring hours of simple arithmetic. Even then not completely successful – everything adds up except the goals in the table of all World Cups since 1930, which do not total 3,028, as they should, in either column although coming close. But then they do not in the official FIFA statistics table for the 84 participants so far either (mostly due to some duplication between the Czech Republic and Slovakia) while AI figures are outdated or inaccurate – multiple examples of that, for which  space is lacking.

Future columns might slip in a box with some new numbers since this columnist’s data processing is not concluded yet but today ends the eight-chapter series on this passion of multitudes played by millionaires for millionaires and earning billions (around US$5 billion, or so we are informed by FIFA).