US strikes fail to stop Colombia’s drug trade – an explainer

US ships and planes are stalking drug-traffickers with deadly attacks in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Yet what is the actual impact of this military offensive on the large quantities of drugs that typically leave Colombia every day?

None, say experts and sources, in areas overwhelmed by coca leaf crops in the country that produces the most cocaine in the world.

In the conflict-ridden border with Venezuela or the rebel-held Micay Canyon in the southwest, the drug trade continues at its normal pace according to local residents.

At least eight attacks ordered by the Donald Trump administration in international waters have left around 30 dead, some of them Colombians, according to Washington.

According to some sources, images of burning boats could even benefit producers in the country by increasing the price of cocaine.

"There's no perception that people are worried ... These people [the drug-traffickers] are sort of indifferent, they see it more as an international show ... that doesn't affect the illicit economy much," said a 45-year-old farmer who replaced his drug crops with coffee in Micay as part of a policy by leftist President Gustavo Petro.

Guerrilla influencers on TikTok continue to post videos celebrating rebel life amid coca crops and laboratories, to the rhythm of narcocorridos and without any mention of the United States.

They produce, not export

What Trump "is doing in the Caribbean will have zero impact on drug-trafficking," explains Laura Bonilla, of the Pares research centre, which specialises in the armed conflict in Colombia.

The expert explains that logistics have changed since the pandemic. Colombian groups now “specialise” in drug production and territorial control, while international cartels purchase and distribute them, generally across the Pacific.

In fact, he questions Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth's version that three National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrillas died in the attack on a drug boat.

"A complete lie. That makes no sense, because the ELN doesn't operate boats in the Caribbean because the ELN isn't the owner of the business," Bonilla adds.

The guerrilla group said Wednesday that it "does not and will not have any vessels linked to drug-trafficking, neither in the Caribbean nor in any other sea."

Mexican cartels such as Jalisco Nueva Generación and Sinaloa lead the trafficking.

Petro rejects the US military campaign, accuses Trump of violating the sovereignty of national waters, and denounces that one of the attacks killed fisherman Alejandro Carranza, who "had no ties to drug-trafficking."

In an interview with AFP, his widow, Katerine Hernández, defended this version and said her husband's life was "unjustly taken."

Pacific, not the Caribbean

Every year, Colombia surpasses its own cocaine production record. According to the UN's most recent measurement puts it at 2,664 tons, and the Caribbean is no longer the preferred route for major drug lords.

The era of cocaine barons like the slain Pablo Escobar is over. Flashy displays have been replaced by low-profile, hard-to-track drug-traffickers.

Now, Ecuador and Peru, Ecuador and Peru, which have access to the Pacific, are the new logistics centers where violence is on the rise.

The Ecuadorean government under Daniel Noboa states that 70 percent of the world's cocaine is shipped through its ports. 

On Wednesday, the United States announced its first attack in the Pacific, resulting in two deaths. That evening, Hegseth revealed another attack, resulting in three more deaths.

Experts agree that the US fleet in the Caribbean is more likely to serve other purposes, such as attempting to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Furthermore, the deadliest drug in the United States is not cocaine, but fentanyl.

It's not Trump's agenda

Trump called Petro a "drug-trafficking leader," just like Maduro.

According to Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, Trump is considering imposing financial sanctions against Petro, such as blacklisting him with OFAC, a branch of the US Treasury Department.

The two historically allied countries are experiencing their worst times in decades.

The Trump administration revoked the visas of Petro and several of his officials. It also stripped Colombia of its status as an allied country in the fight against drugs, announced the end of its multimillion-dollar aid, and is considering imposing tariffs.

Rather than curbing drug-trafficking, Trump is seeking to advance his "domestic agenda" at a time when millions are protesting against his administration, according to experts.

He is also trying to stage a "power grab" in South America and "influence" the 2026 presidential elections in Colombia to weaken the left in the region, says Juana Cabezas, a researcher at Indepaz.