Trump lifeline does little to boost Milei with voters in Argentina

Donald Trump’s extraordinary financial assistance for Argentina may be enough to shore up local markets until a key midterm election later this month, but it’s doing little to boost President Javier Milei’s standing with voters.

Nearly half of Argentines, 44 percent, see the deal as more likely to benefit the US than their own nation, while 36 percent said they see Milei’s tightening relationship with Washington as very negative, according to a poll conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and published Friday. 

By comparison, just 14 percent said they saw Argentina as the primary beneficiary, while 29 percent view closer relations as overwhelmingly positive.

The survey was conducted before Thursday’s announcement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that he’d finalised a US$20-billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s Central Bank following days of talks with Milei’s government. The Treasury also directly purchased Argentine pesos as part of its support for the country, a step US authorities have rarely taken in recent decades.

But its findings are a warning sign for Milei and his ruling party ahead of crucial October 26 midterm elections, a vote that will offer an early referendum on the libertarian president and his austerity drive. A weak showing threatens to jeopardise his ability to carry out additional reforms of the beleaguered economy.

More than half of Argentines said they were well aware of negotiations over the plan, which aimed to help Milei weather a market slump that has left his government burning through dollar reserves in a bid to stem a currency slide. 

The poll found that 40 percent see the United States aiding their government out of its interest in Argentina’s natural resources. About 37 percent view it as part of Washington’s ongoing battle for regional influence with China, while a similar share sees Trump and Bessent’s ideological affinity for Milei as a motivation, the survey found.

About 35 percent said it stems from Washington's economic and financial interests.

Bessent’s delivery of aid could nevertheless boost Milei in the midterms “if US support helps get to the election with economic conditions that at least look under control,” said Jimena Zuniga, a Latin America geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics. “I think that far outweighs any detrimental impact anti-Americanism can have on Milei’s support. To the extent anti-Americanism is an issue, it is likely to be an issue mainly among voters who don’t support Milei anyway.”

Views of Milei remained relatively stable amid the market turbulence and various corruption scandals his party is facing ahead of the vote.

In October, 54 percent of Argentines held a negative view of their leader, up a point from September, the poll found. Roughly 44 percent see him positively, unchanged from a month prior.