La Niña forecast raises early alarm bells for Milei’s Argentina

A weather-changing La Niña has emerged in the Pacific Ocean, increasing the risk of drought in California and crop-growing regions in Brazil and Argentina while also bringing cold to the US Midwest and a milder winter to New York and the US East Coast.

The development of the phenomenon is setting off alarm bells in Argentina, where this weather pattern can cause heat waves and droughts that affect the country's main soybean and corn crops.

Although La Niña is expected to be weak this year, its mere appearance poses a risk to the agricultural region of La Pampa, where producers are preparing for planting.

Droughts caused by La Niña in 2018 and 2023 contributed to the fall of two previous governments in Argentina, the world's leading supplier of soybean meal and oil and the third largest global exporter of corn.

There is a lot at stake this harvest season. Economic activity has weakened on a quarterly basis, and President Javier Milei, whose government desperately needs foreign currency, will depend next year on agricultural export revenues of around US$30 billion annually.

"There will be dry spells," said Germán Heinzenknecht, an agricultural meteorologist in Tandil, Buenos Aires province. But he added that high soil moisture levels should help farmers.

Of course, it is impossible to predict how the season will unfold at this stage. Just remember Argentina's last harvest: La Niña seemed to put the fields at risk, but in the end the rains came and saved the soybeans.

"It's not good news that La Niña is coming," said Leonardo De Benedictis, a meteorologist at the AZ Group agricultural consultancy in Buenos Aires. "But the weaker it is, the better."