Kicillof edges forward as Peronism eyes 2027 opening

Talks between different factions of the opposition have multiplied over the past month. The crisis affecting President Javier Milei’s government is forcing Peronism to get its house in order, as it begins to sense that unity and expansion could make the force a competitive offering in 2027. That said, when victory seems within reach, internal disputes over the candidacy tend to intensify – and today no figure has their name secured at the top of the opposition’s ballot paper.

“If the election were held today, he doesn’t have the votes,” says a senior Peronist, referring to Milei’s chances of re-election. Still, the party heavyweight concedes that the time remaining in office could allow the President to recover. So far, at each moment of crisis, the libertarian leader has shown an almost miraculous ability to rebound in his public image. For that reason, no-one is willing to predict a clear outcome for next year. Even so, they believe an opportunity may be opening up.

Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof appears to be the candidate-in-waiting. However, his name must still pass internal debate. Even if he manages to unite governors and key figures, the final contest would be against ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and veteran operator Sergio Massa, who for now remain out of public view.

“You can’t be the heir if you’re at odds with your mother,” says a national lawmaker in contact with the two-term former president. The Buenos Aires Province governor is not waiting for permission though – he is already building his position. Kicillof needs to enter the internal debate as the counterpoint to Milei’s austerity drive, even if that means competing in a primary election.

Massa does not admit it publicly, but he is waiting for the World Cup to pass before “starting his run-up.” The Frente Renovador leader entered the 2023 race knowing it would be difficult to win the Presidency. At the time, the aim was to see Alberto Fernández’s government through to the end – and to do so as orderly as possible – while securing Buenos Aires Province and preventing PRO from returning to power.

Without formally launching candidates, the rally on May 1 will bring together different figures who can begin the process of expanding Unión por la Patria. One of Massa’s closest allies is among those seeking to consolidate a “federal Peronism” force that, for now, is not discussing names but focusing on ideas first. 

National deputies Guillermo Michel and Victoria Tolosa Paz, alongside Buenos Aires Province operator Juan Manuel Olmos, will seek a joint appearance with lawmakers and leaders from the region next Friday. “We can’t remain just an AMBA-based party heading for certain defeat in a run-off,” says one figure from the space.

Also stepping onto the public stage of profile is San Juan Province Senator Sergio Uñac, who has called for the debate over the presidential candidacy to be brought forward. Other figures are circulating in the political manoeuvring, oscillating between acting as brokers of a winning coalition or launching bids of their own – though the former appears more likely. That is the case for Ricardo Quintela (La Rioja Province governor) and Gerardo Zamora (Santiago del Estero Province senator).

On the fringes, but drawing closer to the various strands of Peronism, three figures could become part of an expanded version of Frente de Todos: Miguel Ángel Pichetto, Emilio Monzó and Nicolás Massot are all making moves, though for now they are more focused on promoting an outsider candidate such as Jorge Brito.

That alone will not suffice. Within Peronism, talks are also advancing with some Radical figures who do not support libertarian ideas, as well as with governors who once allied with Milei but are now feeling the economic strain in their provinces.

“It’s everyone or nothing – that’s the reality. Losing would be worse,” admits one senior Unión por la Patria leader. Peronism knows it must organise itself, even as it keeps a watchful eye on the extent of the government’s fragility.