March inflation is once again trending toward the three-percent range in Argentina, say top consultancy firms, without showing the slowdown sought by President Javier Milei’s government
Private consultancy firms agree that the monthly rate will come in at around three percent, driven by hikes in the cost of food, fuel, and utility rates. That would mean prices increased by around 12 in the first
Most analysts expect the coming month’s inflation data – which is set to be published by the INDEC national statistics bureau on April 14 – to remain above the target set by the Milei administration.
According to the Libertad y Progreso think tank, March’s inflation was around 2.9 percent, taking the quarterly increase to 8.9 percent, while year-on-year inflation stands at 31.9%.
“Looking ahead to April, the main risk lies in how quickly the pass-through from fuel prices will spread to the general basket via transportation costs,” warned Julián Neufeld, an economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.
For the Analytica consultancy firm, last month ended with three percent inflation, with food prices rising 0.3 percent in the final week of the month, matching the estimate of another firm, Eco Go.
Caputo’s concerns
Economy Minister Luis Caputo, acknowledged some concern about the pace of the economic recovery and also admitted that March inflation could break the downward trend.
“Maybe February’s EMAE [economic activity index] will come in lower, maybe last month’s inflation will be higher –it doesn’t matter. It won’t steer us off course. We will reach our goal,” the official stated.
Caputo admitted dissatisfaction with the pace of economic recovery, in a context where consumption has yet to rebound and economic growth data appears to be cooling.
“I’m concerned about the speed of the recovery. We have the potential to be growing at nine or ten percent,” he said.
The economy minister also highlighted record levels of GDP, exports, private consumption, and the harvest.
– TIMES/NA
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