Lula’s poll lead over Bolsonaro shrinks as Brazil election campaign opens

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed to one point as official campaigning began, with the conservative challenger stepping up criticism of Brazil’s mounting debt problems in a bid to close the gap.

Lula leads Bolsonaro 46 percent to 45 percent in a run-off scenario, according to a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released Monday. That’s down from a three-point advantage the week prior, when he led 47 percent to 44 percent. The shifts for both candidates were within the poll’s two-point margin of error.

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads Bolsonaro 41 percent to 37 percent, with other challengers trailing far behind.

A separate Datafolha survey released Friday showed the leftist leader with a four-point advantage over Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilians head to the polls on October 4, and if no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off will be held on October 25.

Both Lula and Bolsonaro skipped the first major TV debate of the election on Sunday. But each signalled plans to highlight economic issues this week as they target a small share of voters who remain undecided.

Bolsonaro took aim at his opponent’s handling of the economy in a Sunday night social media video, pointing to mounting fiscal deficits, rising public debt and increasing household indebtedness amid double-digit interest rates.

“The government is drowning in debt and dragging you into debt as well,” Bolsonaro said.

The message is part of a strategy to tap into anxieties about the Brazilian economy ahead of the vote, according to a senior campaign adviser who requested anonymity to discuss the plans.

Bolsonaro is scheduled to attend an event hosted by São Paulo’s main industry group Monday. He plans to highlight problems facing a growing list of Brazilian companies struggling under the weight of high borrowing costs, the adviser said, pointing specifically to Braskem SA and Grupo Casas Bahia SA as examples.

Braskem, the largest petrochemicals producer in Latin America, reached a deal with its main creditors to rework nearly US$11 billion in debt on Monday. Casas Bahia, a major Brazilian retailer, filed for bankruptcy protection in São Paulo earlier this month.

Lula said Sunday night that he will meet with Senate leader Davi Alcolumbre on Wednesday to finalise a plan to eliminate a 20 percent tax on imports valued at US$50 or less that his government implemented in 2024.

Meant to help Brazilian retailers compete with Asian rivals, the levy has proved one of the government’s most unpopular initiatives. 

Lula initially scrapped it in late May, but needs Congress to approve that decision by September 8 to keep the tax from coming back into effect ahead of the election. 

The BTG/Nexus poll interviewed 2,006 voters by telephone between August 21 to 23.