Lula and Bolsonaro in dead heat ahead of Brazil vote, polls show

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro appeared statistically tied in a pair of new polls ahead of Brazil’s election, as a crisis inside the country’s Supreme Court clouds the October vote.

Lula would lead a run-off 47 percent to 46 percent, according to a BTG/Nexus survey published Monday, after gaining two points from the previous poll. The movement was within the survey’s two-point margin of error, leaving the race in a statistical dead heat.

A Quaest poll published later Monday found Bolsonaro ahead of Lula 42 percent to 40 percent a slight change from last week, when they were even at 41 percent in a run-off scenario. His lead is within the poll’s two percentage point margin of error, keeping the race virtually tied.

A fresh series of revelations suggesting ties between Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed owner of Banco Master SA, and Supreme Court justices has jolted the race just weeks before the October 4 first-round vote. 

In response, the court’s president has unsealed investigations into Vorcaro. They indicate that federal police are probing Bolsonaro over allegations of money-laundering, corruption and tax crimes after he approached the banker for funding for a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing.

The crisis also carries risk for Lula. The leftist leader is perceived as a close ally of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is also facing scrutiny over alleged ties to Vorcaro. A slowing economy and corruption allegations against one of his son’s have also weighed on Lula’s re-election bid in recent weeks. Lula’s son has denied wrongdoing.

A separate Datafolha survey released Friday showed the contest neck and neck, with Lula holding a slight numerical advantage.

BTG/Nexus interviewed 2,003 people on September 11-13. Quaest surveyed 2,004 people on September 10-13.