A crackdown on pollsters is clouding Colombia’s presidential race

A push to make polling more accurate in Colombia is starting to backfire, clouding the political landscape for voters and investors ahead of next year’s presidential election.

The years-long, cross-party effort to improve the quality of public opinion research was approved in July, as markets were focused on the country’s deteriorating finances and fragile fiscal outlook. 

The new law banned the publication of voter-intention surveys until the end of October. Many observers expected a slew of fresh polls to hit as soon as the regulatory blackout period lifted. But that didn’t happen. 

While private polls are still being conducted, only two firms have published new studies so far this month. Pollsters explained that the law tightens criteria for public surveys in a way that roughly doubles their costs, making them less frequent and more limited. 

“Those who can pay have access to information,” said César Caballero, head of Bogotá-based Cifras y Conceptos, which carried out the first poll released at the start of November. “Public opinion will be at the mercy of manipulation,” he added. “No one is held accountable for what is circulating online.”

With more than a hundred presidential candidates and political alliances still in early stages, there’s much to decipher in the months ahead of the legislative and presidential votes, scheduled for March and May respectively. Polls published in local media on a regular basis had been a staple for election watchers.

The law more than doubled the minimum sample size and demanded the inclusion of less populated areas, among other technical changes. Beyond the additional costs, the new rules also create legal uncertainty, with pollsters fearing criminal liability if standards aren’t met.

“It’s a very risky moment to carry out polls,” said Pablo Lemoine, head of pollster Centro Nacional de Consultoría, known as CNC. “The law isn’t clear on the consequences, just that there will be criminal consequences.”

Investors are hoping that Colombia moves back to a more market friendly administration next year as the government of Gustavo Petro – the Andean nation’s first leftist leader – winds down. He isn’t allowed to run again, and Senator Iván Cepeda won a presidential primary vote held by Petro’s Pacto Histórico party last month. 

Barclays sees next year’s election as both an anchor to offset noise around Petro’s missteps and a potential positive catalyst if power shifts toward a centre-right government. 

For XP Investments, concerns around the lack of information haven’t been that urgent yet, but if the dearth of polling continues it will start to affect the market, according to Andrés Pardo, the firm’s head of Latin America strategy. “It creates more volatility,” he said. “As we get closer to the elections, it will become more worrying. People will be more lost, comparisons will be more difficult.”

While the ban was in place, local news outlet La Silla Vacía noted how some candidates were pointing to bets that appeared on Polymarket as a sign they were leading in voter intentions. But such gambling outlets are open to manipulation, given a small number of users can have an outsized impact on the odds.

The polling bill was initially presented in 2020 and again in 2022 before it finally was approved this year, according to Senator Angélica Lozano from the centrist Green Party, which helped pass it. 

The law’s main goal “is to improve technical standards and it did just that,” Lozano said in a phone interview. “We’re not talking about some survey on soaps, but on something that impacts public opinion.” She also questioned whether the new rules heightened the risk of information being manipulated. “If there are many surveys without technical standards, how does that shield them?”

The Electoral Observation Mission, an independent watchdog, was invited to provide comments while the bill was being discussed and is also broadly supportive of the measure. It helps provide “better quality information,” said Diego Rubiano, a senior analyst at the group. 

However, Rubiano also said implementing the law with Colombia nearing elections has been problematic. “The rules are being changed in the middle of the electoral process and that’s not healthy for any democracy.” 

Both he and Lozano said that while the new regulations mention penal consequences, the criminal code doesn’t include such a crime. The polling law has also been challenged in Colombia’s constitutional court. 

The reduced number of polls and lack of regular public surveys is making it harder to understand why a given candidate is rising or falling, according to Mario Gómez, managing partner for Colombia at Prospectiva Public Affairs Lat.Am. The inability to see who is trailing the pack may also help explain why there are so many presidential hopefuls still in the running. “This has given them oxygen for a few more months,” Gómez said.

CNC published its first public poll since the law was enacted on November 17. It showed Petro ally Cepeda leading voting intentions with 21 percent, followed by right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella with 14 percent and centrist former regional governor Sergio Fajardo at eight percent. Asked to identify Colombia’s top problems, respondents flagged insecurity and corruption as their main concern, ahead of unemployment and the health sector.  

Yet polls such as the one Cifras y Conceptos used to publish regularly, which sampled 1,600 people across Colombia’s four main cities, no longer meet the standards. Caballero defended the survey as robust, and said it’s still being conducted. 

“Internally, I can see what is happening and what is changing,” he said. “I can show it privately, but I can’t publish it.”