OECD lowers Argentina’s growth estimate, raises inflation forecast

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised down its 2025 growth forecast for Argentina, also forecasting an increase in inflation.

Argentina’s gross domestic product will grow 4.3 percent this year, according to the body, a drop of 0.2 points from an estimate in June. Last year, the economy contracted by 1.3 percent.

Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to close out 2025 at 39.8 percent, an increase of 3.2 percent from the previous OECD forecast.

In comments to the EFE news agency, OECD chief economist Álvaro Pereira said the organisation had noted falls in private consumption and exports, as well as credit.

The OECD also noted a decline in industry and construction, Pereira added.

For 2026, the authors of the report expect Argentina’s GDP to grow by 4.3 percent with inflation at 16.5 percent.

Pereira said the projections were made on the basis of the latest available economic data, without factoring in recent political and financial instability of recent weeks, saying that could prompt further revisions.

Globally, the OECD says that growth remains resilient, despite the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

The body said global GDP will slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026, with investment and trade set to be curbed by rising tariffs and political uncertainty.

The OECD said “a sharp slowdown in growth is projected” in the United States, with the economy set to grow 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026, due to higher tariffs, moderating net immigration and cuts to the federal government workforce.

The US economy grew 2.8 percent in 2024.
China, meanwhile, will also experience a slowdown, from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026, as higher tariffs come into force and fiscal support fades, said the OECD.

For the eurozone, GDP growth is expected to decelerate at a slower but steady pace, from 1.2 percent in 2025 to one percent in 2026.
 

– TIMES/NA