Milei government dismisses impact of World Cup on Argentina's reserves

A trip to watch Argentina’s football national team in its first three matches of the 2026 World Cup group stage carries an estimated cost of US$7,850 per person, including average expenses, according to calculations by the Focus Market consultancy firm. It’s a steep price tag for what is widely considered the most expensive World Cup in history, arriving at a moment when Argentina’s currency is relatively strong and wages are high in US dollar terms, yet many Argentines have less real purchasing power than they did during previous tournaments and outbound tourism is slowing.

Every four years, football's biggest event places pressure on Argentina’sCentral Bank reserves. But this time it is not worrying President Jaiver Milei’s government, even if the “Messi effect” could still deliver a surprise.

Government officials predict that around 30,000 Argentines will travel to the United States, Mexico and Canada to support the national team at next month’s tournament. That’s slightly below the estimated 35,000 who attended Qatar 2022 – although by December 18, the day Argentina became world champions, there was a final rush of fans desperate to experience the final live and in-person, at any cost.

“In January [2026] there were around 590,000 outbound tourists. It’s more anecdotal than statistically significant,” one official told Perfil, comparing it with one of the peak months of the summer holiday season.

During the 2022 World Cup, spending on overseas travel and foreign card payments rose 40 percent compared to the same period of 2021 and 2023, according to the Eco Go consultancy firm. 

Anastasia Daicich, director at economic firm Qualy, said that in a scenario where up to 30 percent more Argentines travel than normal, with average spending per passenger around US$10,000, total foreign currency outflows linked to the World Cup would reach roughly US$455 million – a figure that “does not move the needle” for the Central Bank.

A basic package excluding flights to attend a single match – including three nights of accommodation, transfers and taxes – currently starts at around US$3,200, while the option to attend two matches, with seven nights in hotels, climbs to US$6,500.

Cheap dollar, falling wages

Argentina’s economic team dismisses the idea of a flood of tourists generating spending that could affect Central Bank reserves between June and July, citing several reasons.

First, officials believe flight and hotel bookings were made in previous months and therefore have already had their impact. Second, dollar reserves at the Central Bank are stronger than in December 2022 – US$44 billion then versus US$47 billion now, with net reserves also improved at around US$2.4 billion versus roughly US$3.6 billion. Third, ticket prices are considered “ridiculous” and the United States is viewed as “expensive,” dampening enthusiasm.

The dollar exchange rate situation is very different from that faced by Argentines travelling to Doha. The average exchange rate, at today’s prices, is around half what it was during the previous World Cup: 1,458 pesos versus 2,838 pesos at the contado con liquidación (CCL) exchange rate, according to calculations by GMA Capital chief strategist Nery Persichini.

The problem is that wages – although high in dollar terms according to RIPTE (Remuneración Imponible Promedio de los Trabajadores Estables) salary data at US$1,190 versus US$644 – have lost purchasing power in pesos, amid inflation that had accumulated 952.28 percent by April this year. The deterioration has been especially marked in the first months of 2026 for formal sector workers, whose pay rises have consistently lagged behind inflation.

If US inflation is also taken into account, fans would have encountered prices 11.4 percent cheaper in dollar terms had the tournament been held at the same location four years ago.

The paradoxical combination of a historically cheap exchange rate and weakening purchasing power is reflected in tourism figures. While 2025 set a record for Argentines travelling abroad, with a 43.1 percent increase, the first four months of this year saw just 5.2 million outbound tourists, compared to 11 million in the same period a year earlier.

Tourism expert Laura Vernelli highlights one particular factor directly affecting the Central Bank’s foreign currency outflows. “There has been a major drop in outbound overland tourism from people driving to Brazil or Chile, which pulls the overall numbers down. There has also been a sharp fall in day-trippers crossing into neighbouring countries to shop,” she explained.

“However, air travel is growing, and that is effectively the category that drains the most dollars through tourism. In some respects the situation is still better than 2025, but worse than previous years,” she concluded.

Cards, taxes and debit

Since President Javier Milei took office, the framework governing overseas card spending has undergone several deregulations.

At the end of 2023, surcharges were cut from 155 percent to 60 percent to offset the devaluation of the official exchange rate, and in December 2024 they were reduced further with the definitive elimination of the PAIS solidarity tax. This flexibilisation continued with the removal of the historic cap on cash withdrawals from international ATMs and greater encouragement for the bi-monetary system.

As a result, the current “card dollar” exchange rate is now subject only to a 30 percent advance payment on income tax. Users can avoid this cost entirely if they settle their card bills directly with their own dollar holdings through the so-called “stop debit” mechanism.

Up to March, the Central Bank led by Governor Santiago Bausili estimated net outflows of US$393 million under the travel and tickets category. It also clarified that “70 percent of all outflows linked to spending on travel goods and services, other card payments and passenger transport services are settled directly by clients using foreign currency funds, mostly purchased through the foreign exchange market.”

Another US$800 million was used to pay tourism-related and other card expenses. However, according to figures handled within government offices, around 400 million pesos per month is still paid through taxes.

“And most of those taxes are never reclaimed. The [self-employed] monotributista. Because it is a small amount, they do not bother with stop debit and then they have no income tax liability to offset it against,” officials told the outlet.

“Messi effect” and strategic summer pause

Despite the detailed calculations being made inside government offices, some analysts are factoring in an emotional element.

A report by Marcos Cohen Arazi for the Fundación Mediterránea think tank warned that the decline in outbound tourism during the first two months of the year may not be structural, but rather a strategic postponement – many families may have chosen not to take summer holidays in order to save dollars ahead of the World Cup.

This looming exodus is driven by five key factors, including a more favourable exchange rate than in Qatar, closer geographical proximity and the powerful “Messi effect” – linked to what could be the final World Cup appearance of Argentina skipper Lionel Messi.

The study projected that this extra demand will partially reverse the moderation seen at the start of the year, keeping foreign currency outflows above US$4 billion in the first quarter, against inflows of US$1.5 billion.

Although the ratio has improved – there are now 2.8 Argentines travelling abroad for every foreign tourist arriving in the country, compared to the record 3.2 in 2025 – the structural imbalance remains.