IMF chief visits Milei as Argentina’s US$57-billion bill comes due

Eight years, three deals and US$57 billion since the last IMF leader came to Argentina, Kristalina Georgieva arrived Monday in Buenos Aires to see President Javier Milei’s economic revival for herself.

Times have changed for the better between the International Monetary Fund and its largest debtor. Yet the real test – repayment – is about to begin. That’s raising questions about whether the IMF can ever get out of Argentina, or vice versa, and if Georgieva can turn a debacle into a crowning achievement.

She’s visiting Milei at somewhat of a goldilocks moment for his government, and her first trip there as IMF managing director is a fact of that. Argentina’s bonds are up, inflation is down and the Central Bank is rebuilding its stockpile of cash needed to repay the IMF. The economy is growing, albeit unevenly, and Georgieva will see firsthand Argentina’s big success story: an oil boom in Patagonia attracting billions of investment.

Georgieva expressed optimism on Monday that Argentina could finally start to exit its cycle of repetitive borrowing. She even recalled that her first week at the IMF back in October 2019 included a meeting about the South American nation’s ability to repay. Now, she sees no need for Argentina to seek additional financing from the IMF before the 2027 presidential elections beyond its current US$20-billion programme.  

“We may be on a good track for Argentina to join the club of emerging markets that have borrowed from the Fund, reformed their economies, and borrowed no more,” Georgieva said at a press conference along with Economy Minister Luis Caputo. “I don’t see that lender of last resort to be triggered in 2027.” 

Her arrival in Argentina would’ve been hard to envision just three years ago when IMF staffers saw a “full-blown crisis” in the run up to the presidential election with inflation over 100 percent and a deep recession underway. After 23 programmes in almost 70 years, the IMF is still reviled in Argentina and seen by many citizens as a scapegoat for the country’s crises where the institution was involved. 

Georgieva inherited Argentina’s IMF debts upon taking the post in 2019 after her predecessor, Christine Lagarde, failed to rescue a previous administration with a record bailout the year prior and then went to lead the European Central Bank. A sequel agreement in 2022 tailored to refinance the previous programme arguably went worse as the crisis deepened. Milei secured his deal in April 2025. 

In September, Argentina will start repaying principal, bringing payments along with interest up to US$3 billion for the remaining of 2026. That figure more than doubles next year and the next administration will owe at least US$9.5 billion a year from 2028 to 2031, according to the IMF. Payments are scheduled until 2042 for now, and the government says it doesn’t intend to refinance its debts at least next year when Milei’s current term ends.   

Former IMF officials say just about everything needs to go right for Milei if he intends to end Argentina’s reliance on the IMF at some point. 

“If Argentina can come up with the dollars it needs to pay back the IMF and bondholders and other creditors, and if Milei emerges victorious in next year’s elections, the cycle will be broken,” said Douglas Rediker, a former US representative at the IMF. “If any of those doesn’t line up, the country will either need more forbearance from the IMF – including a new programme to help pay for the last ones, default on other creditors or resort to the kind of financial engineering solutions that Milei came into office promising to unwind.”

The missing ingredient is Argentina’s return to international markets, a next step Georgieva wants and Milei doesn’t for now. A market return would help ensure the IMF gets its money back and replace a piecemeal debt strategy dependent on Argentina’s local markets that’s worked so far but lacks longevity in the face of soaring payments in the coming years. 

Milei has avoided Wall Street as he’s expressed frustration that Argentina’s bond premiums reflect more the fear of another pendulum swing in next year’s elections than his economic achievements. 

“The ultimate success will depend on whether the reforms momentum continues and becomes entrenched over several election cycles,” said Martin Mühleisen, a former Fund official and senior fellow at The Atlantic Council. 

To be sure, investors’ scepticism of continuity in Argentina holds water. Over three IMF deals since 2018, Argentina has churned through three presidents, six economy ministers and five central bankers. The economy has spent most of this time in recession and inflation, now 34 percent, nearly hit 300 percent shortly after Milei took office.  

While Milei and Georgieva publicly support each other, it hasn’t always gone smooth. Milei heavily criticised senior IMF official Rodrigo Valdés – a Georgieva appointee – until he stepped away from negotiations. Georgieva also walked back comments last year ahead of midterm elections when she emphasised to voters “it’s very important that they don’t derail the will for change,” which was criticised in Buenos Aires as election meddling.  

This time, she’s avoiding Argentine politics by coming more than a year ahead of the presidential vote. The IMF has become less of a punching bag too since Milei brandished a chainsaw to celebrate his austerity campaign, reversing a longheld perception that the IMF was forcing reluctant Argentine governments to cut spending.  

For all his accomplishments so far, it’s still unclear whether Milei’s IMF programme will be Argentina’s last. 

“The country may be beginning to exit the cycle,” says Kezia McKeague, managing director at McLarty Associates, a consulting firm in Washington. “But it has not yet graduated from it.”