Falling birthrate means Argentina will lose 1.2 million primary pupils by 2030
Primary school enrolment is projected to fall by 27% by end of the decade; New estimate forecasts 1.2 million fewer students by 2030 than in 2023.
Argentina will have 1.2 million fewer primary school pupils in 2030 than it did in 2023, according to a new report that highlights the country’s demographic slowdown.
The study, titled ‘Present and future in the number of students per teacher and grade,’ was produced by Argentinos por la Educación’s María Sol Alzú and Martín Nistal with input from World Bank economist Martín De Simone. Drawing on National Population Directorate (DNP) projections from the Interior Ministry and official Education Secretariat data, it forecasts a 27 percent drop in primary enrolment by the end of the decade.
The contraction will not be evenly spread. Buenos Aires Province accounts for the largest fall in absolute terms – 510,433 fewer pupils, a 30.5 percent decline. Buenos Aires City follows with a 34 percent drop (a loss of 92,540 students), and Santa Fe with a 24.5 percent slump (87,770 fewer pupils).
In relative terms, the provinces of Tierra del Fuego (down 36.1 percent), Santa Cruz (down 34.9 percent) and Buenos Aires City (down 34 percent) face the steepest declines. The provinces of Santiago del Estero, Misiones and Corrientes are projected to see more moderate, though still significant, falls of around 20 percent.
If teaching staff numbers remain unchanged, Argentina’s current average of 16 pupils per primary teacher – already close to the OECD average of 14 – would fall to 12 by 2030. Some provinces, including Catamarca, Buenos Aires City and La Pampa, could see ratios of just seven to eight pupils per teacher. Buenos Aires Province, Mendoza, Córdoba and Misiones would remain higher, at between 13 and 15.
For a regional comparison, Argentina’s current figures are above Uruguay (15), but below Mexico (24), Colombia (23), Ecuador (22) and Brazil (18).
The report estimates that maintaining current ratios would require 50,043 fewer classes nationwide and the reallocation of 71,250 teaching posts by 2030. The annual value of those positions is put at 966.3 billion pesos – roughly 15 percent of the 2025 Education budget.
For the study’s authors, the falling birthrate presents both risk and opportunity.
“The fall in the birthrate in Argentina can have multiple effects, both negative and positive. In the education system, however, it opens an opportunity: without increasing the total expenditure, it is possible to allocate more resources per student,” De Simone said. “The risk is that this window of opportunity will be wasted if the focus is not placed squarely on learning.”
Researchers warn that the impact will differ sharply between the state and private systems. While public school budgets are set administratively, private institutions depend directly on enrolment and may struggle to sustain large structures.
The report calls for medium-term planning and dialogue across the system, urging authorities to reorganise low-enrolment classes, redirect teachers towards targeted support programmes and invest strategically in materials, infrastructure and evaluation.
The authors conclude by highlighting that “demographic transition demands medium-term planning, with dialogue mechanisms among the different players of the education system.”